Joel Bartilotta 
It’s Wednesday and we have a solid 8 game slate for some MLB props to play on PrizePicks. My focus today will be on the games starting at 7pm. It’s a weird night tonight with some average pitchers against average lineups.
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Let’s dig in and see if we can make some money.
MLB Picks
Marlins/Nationals – .5 First Inning Runs – Under
This game tonight will feature 2 below-average offenses with 2 average to slightly above average pitchers on the hill. Pablo Lopez has been pretty solid to start the year, with just a 2.68 xFIP and an ERA less than 1. The only issues he’d face in the first would be Juan Soto, but Soto is in one of his stretches where he is banging the ball right into the ground.
On the Nats’ side, they turn the ball over to Erick Fedde who’s been pitching ‘ok’ this season. Through his first 13 innings on the year, he’s pitching to just a 3.37 xFIP. This should be a low scoring game with 2 bad offenses. I like the Under on this first inning scoring prop from PrizePicks.
Anthony Rizzo – 7.5 Hitter Fantasy Score – Over
If you haven’t been watching the last few days, Anthony Rizzo is red hot! Over his last 25 ABs, Rizzo has 5 homers and 10 RBI. He is one of the hottest hitters in the game and when he’s in the zone, he’s tough to get out. Tonight Rizzo gets a great matchup vs. a pitcher in Tyler Wells who is below average.
On the year, Wells has a 5.24 xFIP and is giving up just a ton of hard contact at 36%. He’s also given up 5 barrels in 8 innings of work. When you average close to a barrel an inning, you’re doing it wrong. I love the Over on the 7.5 Hitter Fantasy Score for Rizzo tonight.
Matt Olson – 8.5 Hitter Fantasy Score – Over
I really like this spot for Matt Olson tonight. He’ll be squaring it up against Mark Leiter who just hasn’t pitched well in his return to the big leagues after a 4 year hiatus. Olson is going to see a bunch of sinkers tonight. This is a pitch that Matt Olson has historically crushed. Over the last few years, Olson has a .303 ISO against sinkers coming from righties. The last week or so has been a struggle for Olson, but this is as good of a bounce-back spot as there is. I really like the Over the on this PrizePicks number tonight.
Brandon Belt – 5.5 Hitter Fantasy Score – Over
Although Paul Blackburn has been pitching well this year, he’s still the same guy that had 5 consecutive seasons with an xFIP at 4.40 or greater. He’s an attackable pitcher and I’m going to attack him with Brandon Belt tonight. Brandon Belt is starting to hit the ball better and is in a great spot as well tonight. With Blackburn increasing his changeup usage this season, this is something that really will fall into Belt’s wheelhouse.
Since the start of the 2019 season, Belt has a .351 ISO against righty changeups. It’s a pitch he loves and if he gets one over the plate tonight, there’s a good chance he does some damage with it. . I’m siding with the Over on this PrizePicks number.
MLB Summary
If playing on PrizePicks tonight, I’d recommend going light. It’s a tricky night with average matchups for all. That said, I picked the spots I have the most faith in.
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Good luck and hope to see some green bars tonight!
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