Joel Bartilotta 
It’s Saturday and that means we have a solid slate for some MLB props to play on PrizePicks. With every team in action today, we’ll have some solid spots for both pitchers and hitters.
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Let’s dig in and see if we can make some money.
MLB Picks
Kyle Hendricks – 4.5 Strikeouts – Over
Kyle Hendricks has a solid chance at this number. The expected Pirates lineup that he’ll face today has a 31% K rate against righties on the year. Anytime we see a number that high, we’re dealing with a team we can attack with a K prop. In Hendrick’s 3 outings so far this year, he’s hit this twice and both times would have been at ease.
My only concern with this one is that the wind is blowing out heavily today and that may make for a shorter afternoon. That said, this is still a good matchup against a high strikeout team. I’m going to side with the Over on this projection from PrizePicks and will watch Hendricks get his 5 strikeouts.
Mets and Diamondbacks – .5 First Inning Runs Allowed – Over
This Mets/Diamondbacks game will be the opposite of a pitcher’s duel tonight. Through 7 innings so far this season, Humberto Castellanos has pitched to a 6.76 xFIP while only having a 2.57 ERA. He’s been able to luck himself out of runs, but tonight he’s facing a Mets lineup that has scored the most runs in baseball this season. It’s time for luck to run out.
On the Mets side, they’re giving the ball to spot starter Trevor Williams. While Williams isn’t an awful pitcher, I wouldn’t categorize him as a good one either. Over the last 2 seasons, Williams has pitched to an xFIP over 4. The Diamondbacks should be able to get to him early. This game has an implied run total over 9, expect some fireworks and expect them early. I like the Over on this PrizePicks projection.
MIke Trout – 7.5 Hitter Fantasy Score – Over
The Angels are in a great spot to put up a crooked number tonight. On the hill for the Orioles will be Spenser Watkins and he just has not shown the ability to get Major Leagues hitters out yet. Over the span of 62 innings between last year and this year, Watkins has a 7.32 ERA and a 5.62 xFIP. So far in his young career, it’s been righties that have done the most damage against him. They have an ISO of .302 and a wOBA of .422.
The Halos have this guy named Mike Trout on their team who’s a decent right-handed bat that we can use. The best player in the game should have no issues putting up some points tonight against a young struggling pitcher. I like the Over on this PrizePicks number for Trout tonight.
CJ Cron – 6.5 Hitter Fantasy Score – Over
We don’t often use Rockies hitters outside of Coors, but this is a really nice spot for Cron today. I really like Skubal a great deal as a pitcher and when it eventually clicks full-time for him, he’s going to be a stud. He’s just not quite there yet. His biggest weakness has been pitching to righties as they’ve had a .255 ISO against him during his brief career.
Cron is in a great spot as he has very dominant numbers against southpaws. While it’s still very early, Cron has a .500 ISO against southpaws to start the 2022 campaign. If the Rockies do any damage today, Cron will be the catalyst. I like the Over here.
Francisco Lindor – 7.5 Hitter Fantasy Score – Over
The Mets have the potential to put up a decent score tonight. I highlighted above that Castellanos hasn’t pitched well this season, but so far has been pretty lucky. Lefties are really where we want to attack him. Last year they had a .247 ISO against him. He gives up way too many flyballs to them and hard hits. Both numbers are 44%. That many hard-hit flyballs are a recipe for disaster.
After struggling to start his Mets career last year, Lindor is off to a hot start. Against righties so far on the year, Lindor has a .325 ISO and a ..464 wOBA. Over the last week, Lindor has 9 hits over 29 ABs. He’s also put the ball in play 27 of those 29 ABs. He’s seeing the ball the best he’s seen it in a Mets uniform. Let’s ride it as long as we can. I like the Over on this number from PrizePicks tonight.
MLB Summary
These are some of my favorite props tonight. There are also some other great spots for offense tonight. I’d also look to attack some props from lefties from the Braves (Olson/Albies).
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Good luck and hope to see some green bars tonight!
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