Joel Bartilotta 
It’s Friday and that means we have a solid slate for some MLB props to play on PrizePicks. We have some great places for offense tonight and I’ll be putting my focus there.
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Let’s dig in and see if we can make some money.
MLB Picks
Tommy Pham – 4.5 Hitter Fantasy Score – Over
While Steven Matz has pitched fairly well this season, I really like this spot for Tommy Pham tonight. Even though the Reds offense has been silent, Pham hasn’t and continues to hit the ball well. Over his last 23 at-bats, Pham has 3 barrels and 11 hard-hit balls. So he’s pretty close to a 50% hard-hit rate. 2 of those hard hits have also left the ballpark. The Reds have an implied run total of 4 today. They’ll get their 4 runs and Pham will be a big part of it. I like the Over on this PrizePicks projection.
Yordan Alvarez – 6.5 Hitter Fantasy Score – Over
I absolutely love this spot for Alvarez tonight. Ross Stripling is making just his second start of the year. He’s someone that I’ve always enjoyed chasing homers against and that’s what we can do here with Alvarez. Stripling had HR/9 over 2 in both 2020 and 2021.
Alvarez on the year has absolutely crushed right-handed pitching, with a .625 ISO in 19 plate appearances. Alvarez should see a healthy amount of change-ups today. Over the last few years, he has a .206 ISO against this pitch for an average distance of over 320 feet. Alvarez is my home run call of the day and I’m going to side with the Over on this projection tonight from PrizePicks.
Jose Ramirez – 7.5 Hitter Fantasy Score – Over
The Guardians are one of my favorite spots for offense tonight against Jameson Taillon and the Guardians’ offense always starts with Ramirez. Taillon’s advanced metrics tell us he’s due for a blowup. His EV is up and so is his barrel %. Add in the fact that the wind is blowing out to right tonight, we have ourselves a chance to watch Ramirez take Taillon DEEP.
If we look at Ramirez, he’s off to just an incredible start to the year. He’s already up to 20 RBIs and his average is sitting at .430. At some point, he’ll cool off. It just won’t be at the hands of Taillon. I like the Over here.
Corey Seager – 7.5 Hitter Fantasy Score – Over
Corey Seager is due for some positive regression. Last year against righties Seager had an ISO of .211. This year it’s sitting at 0. Tonight he gets to take on a pitcher that has struggled so far to start his Major League career. Oller, albeit in very small sample size, has given up a .778 ISO to lefties.
This is as good of a spot that Seager has seen all year and one that screams breakout for his new squad. It also helps that Oller throws a sinker and Seager has historically done well against them. I’m siding with the Over on this PrizePicks number.
CJ Cron – .5 Runs + RBI – Over
We don’t often use Rockies hitters outside of Coors, but this is a really nice spot for Cron tonight. I really like Skubal a great deal as a pitcher and when it eventually clicks full-time for him, he’s going to be a stud. He’s just not quite there yet. His biggest weakness has been pitching to righties as they’ve had a .255 ISO against him during his brief career.
Cron has very dominant splits as he crushes southpaws. This sets up poorly for Skubal. While it’s still very early, Cron has a .500 ISO against southpaws to start the 2022 campaign. If the Rockies do any damage tonight, Cron will be the catalyst. I like the Over here.
MLB Summary
These are some of my favorite props tonight. If you’re looking for other picks, I’d recommend focusing on bats from the Rangers, Indians, and lefty power from Houston.
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Good luck and hope to see some green bars tonight!
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