Joel Bartilotta 
It’s Wednesday and we have a solid slate for some MLB props to play on PrizePicks. We have some great places to attack tonight on both the pitching and hitting fronts.
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Let’s dig in and see if we can make some money.
MLB Picks
Chris Paddack – 4.5 Strikeouts – Under
In order for Paddack to get to this number today, he’ll need to get to 5 K’s and I just don’t’ see it. While the Royals aren’t a powerhouse lineup, they also aren’t a bad lineup. They’re actually a pretty patient one, as evidenced by their low 16.7% strikeout rate on the year against righties. If we couple that with Paddack’s 15% K rate in his first start, we just see that 5 is a tall task for him tonight. I’m going with the Under on this projection on PrizePicks tonight.
Daniel Lynch – 4.5 Strikeouts – Over
Opposite to Paddack, we have a pitcher with a higher K rate facing a team with a high K rate. Do I think that Lynch will have some challenges tonight? Yeah, he’s going to give up some runs. But I also think he’s going to get his fair share of K’s. On the year, the Twins are striking out close to 27% of the time against lefties.
Although Lynch has been giving up some flyballs and homers in his young career, he’s also shown some really nice K upside. In his first start against the Cards he gave up 3 homers, but he also struck out 7. Lynch gets his 5 K’s tonight and we’re going with the Over on this projection.
Blue Jays/Red Sox Starting Pitchers – .5 First Inning Runs Allowed – Over
As of writing this, the Red Sox/Blue Jays game currently has an implied run total of over 9. Both starters come into this game having the 2 highest xFIPs of all the pitchers on the hill tonight. Yes, Berrios has struggled so far. He’s given up just 3 homers in 5 innings and this Red Sox lineup can absolutely get to him.
On the other side, Pivetta is not someone we should be scared of. He’s given up 3 homers in 7 innings. This game has the potential to be a high-scoring game and the fireworks will start early. I love the over on the first inning projection.
Vladimir Guerrero – 8.5 Hitter Fantasy Score – Over
A pitcher that likes to give up homers vs. a hitter that likes to hit homers. What could go wrong? My home run call of the night goes to Vladimir Guerrero tonight. This is going to be a really tough spot for Pivetta tonight. He’s already given up 3 homers on the year in short work and is going to face one of the most potent offenses in the game.
Everything about this matchup tonight screams for Guerrero to do well. The two main pitches he’ll see are a low 90’s fastball and a slider. Both pitchers are ones that Guerrero does well against. I love the over on this PrizePicks projection.
Bo Bichette – 7.5 Hitter Fantasy Score – Over
The same matchup for Bo Bichette tonight that Guerrero has. While he doesn’t quite have the same power numbers that Guerrero has, Bichette is still someone that should be feared at the plate. If we date back all the way to last season, Bichette has a .177 ISO against right-handed pitchers so there’s definitely some power potential there.
I’m not normally a BvP guy, but Bichette has done well against Pivetta in his career. He has 2 homers in 14 ABs and has a 1.071 OPS against him. Similar to Guerrero, I love the Over on this PrizePicks projection.
MLB Summary
If you didn’t notice by my picks, I love this spot for Toronto. They should put up some big numbers and I’ll have them in both my DFS lineups and PrizePicks picks.
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Good luck and hope to see some green bars tonight!
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