Joel Bartilotta 
It’s Taco Tuesday and a full night of MLB props to play on PrizePicks. We have some great places to attack tonight on both the pitching and hitting fronts.
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Let’s dig in and see if we can make some money.
MLB Picks
Robbie Ray – 7 Strikeouts – Under
Robbie Ray has really looked off to start the year. His average FB velocity is way down this year to just 92.6 mph, compared to 94.6 last year. While 2 mph may not seem like a big difference, it 100% is. It’s the difference between an average fastball and a great fastball. All other metrics are also down for Ray, including just a 16% K rate to start the year.
Tonight he gets the difficult task of facing a rebuilt Rangers lineup that is extremely dangerous. They’ve also been great against lefties. Through their first 2 weeks, they have a near 1.000 OPS and just a 16.7% K rate vs. lefties. I just don’t see Ray lasting long enough tonight to get to 7 K’s. I’m going with the Under on this PrizePicks projection.
Cole Irvin – 3.5 Strikeouts – Over
Is Cole Irvin an above-average pitcher? Eh, that’s debatable. Is he in a great matchup tonight? Yes, he definitely is. The Orioles have been absolutely awful to start the year against lefties. They’re striking out more than a third of their at bats and have hit for absolutely no power with an ISO of just .077.
If we date back to last season, Irvin has 4 strikeouts or greater in 4 of his last 5 starts. He has the K ability in him and this matchup tonight will help him find it. I like the Over on this projection.
Kyle Schwarber – 8.5 Hitter Fantasy Score – Under
You ride Schwarber when he’s hot, you sit him when he’s cold. By going with the under here, we’re essentially sitting him tonight. Schwarber is in a pretty rough stretch right now and tbh, I wouldn’t be surprised if he sits tonight against the lefty so you’ll want to hold off on submitting this pick until lineups are out.
Over his last 26 ABs, Schwarber has just 3 hits and 9 strikeouts. What’s also fascinating is that he also has a negative launch angle. So even when he is making contact, it’s just going right into the ground. The Phillies have a great matchup for guys on the right side, but on the left side, they’ll have some challenges. I just don’t see how the lefty Schwarber gets to this number tonight. I’m going with the Under.
Manny Machado – 8.5 Hitter Fantasy Score – Over
Machado faces another lefty tonight and so far this season, this has been a money matchup for him. On the year, his ISO is up to .600 against southpaws and his hard-hit rate is up to 56%. Over the last week, Machado has had 12 hits in 28 ABs with 7 runs scored. The guy is on fire right now and until he cools and is put in a bad matchup, I’ll go with the Over. I’m picking the Over tonight on this number from PrizePicks.
Nick Castellanos – 7.5 Hitter Fantasy Score – Over
Nick Castellanos is one of my favorite hitters on the night. Playing in Coors tonight, Castellanos gets the platoon advantage against a pitcher that has struggled to start the year. Through 2 games, Kyle Freeland has an xFIP over 5 with the majority of the damage coming from righties.
Righties have a .235 ISO against him so far this season. If we look at Castle, his ISO against lefties so far on this young year is sitting at a .429 and a wOBA of .545. He’s in a great spot to smash tonight. I love the Over on this number.
MLB Summary
Tonight we have a fun slate with some great props. If you’re looking to take advantage of some spots, I’d look to righties from the Phillies and Rangers. Can Machado keep up his torrid pace? I certainly hope so because I’m banking on it tonight.
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Good luck and hope to see some green bars tonight!
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