Joel Bartilotta 
MLB Is back and we have some solid picks for PrizePicks today. Today’s slate of games is a solid one that is void of good pitching. So that means we should have some great batter props to attack. And boy do we!
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Let’s dig in and see if we can make some money.
MLB Picks
Shohei Ohtani – 7.5 Hitter Fantasy Score – Over
The Angels will be one of my favorite teams to stack tonight in regards to DFS. They’re facing a pitcher tonight in Elieser Hernandez who gives up a ton of contact, and a healthy amount of it is hard contact. Hernandez had a 36.8% hard-hit rate last year, tops among all pitchers throwing today. He also gave up 13 homers in just 51 innings of work. That’s a pretty torrid pace and one we’ll want to attack.
I plan on doing that with Ohtani tonight. There’s a very real chance he takes Hernandez deep tonight. Just using last season’s numbers, Ohtani had a .296 ISO and a .392 wOBA vs. right-handed pitching. With a very hittable one on the mound tonight for the Marlins, it’s just a matter of how hard and how far Ohtani’s hits will go tonight. I’m going with the Over on this fantasy score projection from PrizePicks as I think Ohtani takes Hernandez deep tonight.
Marcell Ozuna – 6.5 Hitter Fantasy Score – Over
Josh Rogers is arguably the worst pitcher on tonight’s slate. He gets torched by right-handed hitting, to the tune of a .286 ISO last season. Righties had a 49% fly-ball rate and a 41% hard-hit rate. We target Rogers with righties. I’ll be locking Ozuna into my DFS lineups tonight, but I also love the projection on PrizePicks.
Ozuna has yet to hit one out of the park this season, but it’s coming. He’s been hitting the ball extremely hard, with a 61.5% hard-hit rate this season. His loft is there as well as he has a 25-degree launch angle. It’s only a matter of time before he takes one deep. With a matchup vs. a below-average pitcher tonight, it very well could happen tonight. I love the Over here.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – 1.5 Total Bases – Over
The Blue Jays head to New York tonight with a matchup vs. the Yankees and Jameson Taillon. Of all the pitchers on the mound tonight, Taillon is number 2 in terms of home runs given up in 2021. It’s not hard to give up that many home runs when you give up a 48% flyball rate. This is a great spot for Guerrero tonight.
Last year against righties he had an extremely high ISO of .310 and a wOBA of .423. He’s one of the best hitters in the game and when he’s in a positive matchup like tonight, there’s always a chance for an extra-base hit. I’m not normally a BvP guy, but Guerrero has great numbers against Taillon. He’s in a great spot tonight and I’m siding with the Over on this PrizePicks projection.
Mitch Haniger – .5 Projected Runs + RBIs – Over
Dylan Bundy is a pitcher that is truly hard to figure out. He has really good stuff but has never been able to consistently use it. Year in and year out, Bundy continues to have xFIPs greater than 4. He’s always going to give up some runs, and because of that, I’ll leverage the Mariners’ top hitter to target that run total.
Haniger has come out of the gates on fire this year. Through 3 games in the 2022 season, Haniger has 2 homers to go with 5 RBIs and 2 runs scored. He’s averaging more than 2 Runs + RBIs per game to start the year and I don’t think that Bundy will be able to slow him down. I’m siding with the Over here as well.
MLB Summary
We’re onto the first Monday of the 2022 season. The pitching gods have supplied us with some bad pitching tonight, meaning we have some great hitting spots. The above projections are really the ones that I think we can target with a high level of confidence.
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Good luck and hope to see some green bars tonight!
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