Dave Gloeckner 
by Dave Gloeckner
We had a decent day yesterday going 4-2 on the primary prop bets but 0-2 in our home run plays. So we ended down 0.9 units for the day and will look to get that into the positive on Wednesday’s night slate.
After research and modeling, my favorite prop bets for today’s slate are below.
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BATTER PROPS
BO BICHETTE over 2.5 h+r+r (+120 DK)
Bichette owns Red Sox SP Nick Pivetta. The Blue Jays SS has a 0.417 career batting average off Pivetta. And then there’s his recent form where he’s 7 for his last 13 with 1 home run and 4 RBI’s.
ANTHONY RENDON over 1.5 hits+runs+rbi (-130 DK)
Rendon has 9 hits in his last 7 games. Over that span he has 3 multi hit game and surpassed this prop line in 7 of those 9 games. Factor in he has a 0.455 career batting average against Miles Mikolas and we have added reason to bet this prop.
CHARLIE BLACKMON over 0.5 HR’s (+700 DK)
Eric Lauer is a fly ball pitcher who is pitching in Colorado. And he’s allowed at least one home run in all 5 starts this year. I’ll go with Charlie Blackmon who has a 44% fly ball rate this year and is batting 0.500 with 2 career dingers off Lauer.
TEOSCAR HERNANDEZ over 0.5 HR’s (+280 DK)
Speaking of pitchers that allow bombs, welcome JP Sears into the chat. The Oakland SP has a 6.23 ERA and has given up 7 homers in 5 games. Teoscar Hernandez has 7 home runs this season and is hitting 130 points higher off LHP’s than RHP’s.
PITCHER PROPS
DYLAN CEASE under 2.5 ER’s (-155 DK)
Cease absolutely dominated the Twins last season. In 2 starts against Minnesota, he threw 16 shutout innings and allowed just 4 hits. And he started 2023 the same allowing just 1 ER to the Twins back on April 10th. We have to go back to July 2021 for the last time the White Sox SP allowed more than 2 ER’s to Minnesota.
KYLE FREELAND over 4.5 K’s (+110 DK)
Milwaukee leads the league in K rate versus LHP’s with a percentage of 30.3%. In three of four home starts, Freeland has gone over this total.
LOGAN GILBER over 5.5 K’s (-190 DK)
Look, I don’t like taking any number this high unless I feel like there is a high chance of it hitting. The expected success rate of a -190 bet is 66%. So let me try to at least sell you on this, Logan Gilbert has 6+ K’s in all 5 starts this year. And he has a 30.1% K rate for the season. The A’s on the other hand have the 5th highest K rate at 25.3%. The odds say we have a better than 66% chance of reaching 6 K’s making this worth our heavy investment.
Now that you finished reading the MLB Gophers and Gas article make sure to check out MLB Lineup Optimizer and our YouTube Livestream that breaks down the entire slate of games and gives you the info to nail MLB Prop Bets and DFS Plays.
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