by Dave Gloeckner

We’re baaaack! We’ve been popping on props and bets this week in Discord (6-1 overall, 4-0 last night) so it’s time to get the Props and Bets articles back and flowing. It’s a holiday weekend so let’s add a few bucks to the wallet for those BBQ’s and cookouts that are sure to make a dent.

After research and modeling, my favorite prop bets for today’s slate are below.

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BATTER PROPS

JOSH JUNG over 1.5 hits+runs+rbi (-120 DK)

Of all the Rangers bats, Josh Jung has been swinging the hottest one of late. He’s gone over this number in 7 straight games. Today he will make it 8 as he’s sitting in the middle of this hot lineup and will have plenty of opportunities at the plate to go over this prop number.

TIM ANDERSON over 0.5 bases (+100 DK)

Anderson is starting to heat up as he connected for 4 hits in last night’s game versus Detroit. He’s also coming into today with a modest 4 game hit streak. Add to that he is batting 0.444 in his career of Tigers SP Michael Lorenzen and we have a prop that has good value at +100.

RYAN MOUNTCASTLE over 0.5 HR’s (+480 DK)

Ryan Mountcastle is 3 for 4 with 2 home runs in his career off Andrew Heaney. And Heaney makes the cut for our FB% as he has a 41.9% metric in that category. Add to that RH bats are hitting 170 points higher than LH bats off Heaney and there’s good potential for some long balls today from hitters like Mountcastle, Rutschman, and more.

CHRIS MOREL over 0.5 HR’s (+475 DK)

The Cubs slugger has 5 home runs in his last 10 games. And he’s facing Reds SP Brandon Williamson who is allowing 43% FB rate. And there’s always potential for wind at Wrigley Field.

PITCHER PROPS

FRAMBER VALDEZ to record a WIN (+125 Bet365)

The Astros are a -350 favorite on the ML today. But they’re giving us plus odds on a Cy Young candidate versus a minor league pitcher? Yes that was a question and my answer is yes please.

LOGAN WEBB over 5.5 K’s (-110 DK)

Milwaukee is striking out the 5th most in the MLB with a clip over 25%. As mentioned in The Sweet Spot article, Logan Webb has a K rate over 25% as well. My models have this number landing around 6.5 K’s. So this is good value especially with standard juice.

CHRIS BASSITT under 2.5 ER’s (-110 DK)

Bassitt has allowed more than 2 ER’s in just 2 of his 10 starts. The Twins are 27th in batting average and 1st in K rate. I like Bassitt to pitch another strong game today and keep the Twins bats quiet.

GAME BETS

TEXAS RANGERS over 4.5 TT runs (-105 Bet365)

The Rangers are batting 0.296 over the past 10 games and have scored more than 4 runs in 10 of their past 13 games.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS -105 ML

Gray has the 10th best ERA in baseball and the Nats are leading the league in batting average over the past 10 days. This is a good spot to bet a bad team.

Now that you finished reading the MLB Gophers and Gas article make sure to check out MLB Lineup Optimizer and our YouTube Livestream that breaks down the entire slate of games and gives you the info to nail MLB Prop Bets and DFS Plays.

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