Dave Gloeckner 
by Dave Gloeckner
We ended last week with a +5.5 unit return on prop bets which was our 2nd highest profitable week of the season. So we start this week with a big slate and several high value positions we’re looking to take advantage of.
After research and modeling, my favorite prop bets for today’s slate are below.
CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP FOR DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK
BATTER PROPS
JORGE MATTEO over 1.5 h+r+r (-120 DK)
I want to attack Royals SP Ryan Yarbrough who has a measly 9.5% K rate combined with a 6.35 ERA. And the bat I’m going with is Jorge Mateo. He’s been one of the better hitters on the O’s all year but even more so of late. In the last week he batted 0.317 with a 1.121 OPS. He has a hard hit rate over 40% in that span as well. He’s seeing the ball well and will have multiple chances to put the ball in play tonight.
KETEL MARTE over 1.5 hits+runs+rbi (-160 DK)
Rangers SP Jon Gray has a FIP that is 2 runs higher than his actual ERA. He has been fortunate to post an ERA under 4.00 and most of that is attributed to a career low hard hit rate of 23%. In comes Marte who is 13 for 31 in his career off Gray. And he’s struck out just 5 times in 33 plate appearances.
TREA TURNER over 0.5 runs scored (+120 DK)
One of the biggest beneficiaries of Bryce Harper’s return tonight will be Trea Turner. It’s likely Harper will hit in his normal #3 spot which will be directly behind Turner in the lineup. That means Turner should get pitches to hit and will likely also have opportunities to get on base. The lineup is now deeper (Harper replaces Cave) and will create more run scoring opportunities.
WILL SMITH over 0.5 HR’s (+400 DK)
Will Smith is back in the Dodgers lineup and he’s making immediate impacts. The Dodgers slugged 4 home runs last night and plated 13. Tonight they face Matt Strahm who has a 45% fly ball rate. Will Smith is a fly ball hitter with a 51% fly ball rate. This looks like strength against weakness and we’ll ride the strong bat in this matchup.
JOEY GALLO over 0.5 HR’s (+330 DK)
Gallo has been seeing the ball well as he has 3 home runs in his past 9 games. The White Sox are starting Michael Kopech who has allowed 8 home runs in 5 starts. Someone is putting one in the seats tonight and the best value on the Twins lies with Gallo (Buxton is +260 and worth playing as well).
PITCHER PROPS
HUNTER BROWN over 5.5 K’s (-145 DK)
The Giants lead the league in K rate. And Brown has averaged 95 pitches per start. So we have a nice matchup with plenty of reason to believe Dusty Baker will keep Brown in the game long enough to hit this number. Brown has hit the over on his K prop in 4 of 5 starts this season.
MASON MILLER over 5.5 K’s (-140 DK)
Over the past 2 weeks, Seattle is striking out at an alarming rate of 34%. Bring in the A’s starter Mason Miller who can top over 100 MPH with his fastball and we have a matchup worth betting. Miller has a 12.5 K/9 inning rate to start his season so as long as he gets a longer leash, he should surpass this number easily and cash our prop bet.
ZAC GALLEN under 2.5 ER’s (-170 DK)
While this is a high number, I’m willing to play it as Gallen is on a streak of 4 straight starts with 0 ER’s. He had a similar run of zeros last year when he went 44.1 innings without allowing a run.
Now that you finished reading the MLB Gophers and Gas article make sure to check out MLB Lineup Optimizer and our YouTube Livestream that breaks down the entire slate of games and gives you the info to nail MLB Prop Bets and DFS Plays.
Be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.
