by Dave Gloeckner

Welcome to my first edition of Gophers & Gas here at WinDaily Sports. Last year was a smashing success for our prop plays so we decided to put up daily content focused solely on props. The DFS recommendations will still come daily from Jared, Justin and myself. But we need a home for the prop plays as well so here we go!

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BATTER PROPS

ANTHONY RENDON over 0.5 hits (-160 DK)

I don’t love drinking the juice on this, but the fact is Rendon had an awesome spring (batted 0.500 in 15 games) and he’s facing one of the worst starters on the slate in Oakland A’s SP Kyle Muller. On Baseball Prospectus, he’s listed as the 6th starter in the A’s rotation with a projected season ERA of 4.08 and WARP of 0.5. Muller came over from the Braves in the Matt Olsen deal and has a career 5.14 ERA in 12 outings (11 starts). And in 3 outings last year, RHB hit 0.295 against Muller while LHB’s hit 0.00. So we want to get off to a good start and build that bankroll so taking Rendon over his 0.5 bases (or hits) and even climbing the ladder is a safe play for today.

RANDY AROZARENA over 0.5 SB’s (+500 DK)

We have to get ahead of the books with stolen bases before they adjust. With the limited pick-off attempts and bigger bags, there will be more stolen base attempts this season. So I’m looking at Randy Arozarena today who finished T4 in the MLB with 32 stolen bags in 2022. He averaged 1 per 4.8 games which is in line with what the books posted today. Opposing pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez allowed just 4 SB’s in 17 games last year but again, with the new rule changes, I believe Tampa will be one of the first teams to try to exploit and use the rules to their favor. And why not do it with their fastest, and smartest, base runner.

MATASAKA YOSHIDA over 1.5 bases (+130 DK)

Another plus money bet that I like today comes from the upper northeast. The Red Sox invested $90M in the offseason on Japanese star Matasaka Yoshida. He is a two time batting champ in the Japanese professional league and followed that up with an awesome WBC outing. There might be a book on Yoshida, but it’s often difficult for pitchers to adjust to Japanese hitters (Seiya Suzuki hit 0.279 with 4 of his 14 homers in April last year). Here’s betting Kyle Gibson is someone who will follow suit and struggle to adjust.

MIKE TROUT over 0.5 HR’s (+450 DK)

Welcome to the “Gopher” part of the article. Keeping this short and sweet, I am trying to use players that came out of the WBC since they have already “turned on” the competitive button. And Trout was obviously one of the stars from the WBC as he batted 0.318 with 3 extra base hits. Add to that he’s facing a LHP today which he feasts off of. In 2022 alone, he batted 0.310 off LHP’s and had an OPS of 1.058 (vice 0.273 and 0.976 off RHP’s). We saw Trout with home run lines of +290 last year. Getting him at +450 today is a deal I’m willing to take.

WILLY ADAMES over 0.5 HR’s (+500 DK)

I gave this out on the WinDaily MLB show last night, so I’ll keep the write up short. Adames is a career 0.538 hitter off Cubs starter Marcus Stroman. He also has two career home runs. Adames is coming off a career high 31 home runs in 2022 and he’s entering his age 27 season. All good signs point to a big year from the Brewers SS and that starts today.

PITCHER PROPS

JACOB DEGROM over 7.5 K’s (-150 DK)

You’ve heard this before, but DeGrom didn’t throw much in the spring because of some nagging injuries. But he says he’s 100% and will take the honor of pitching Opening Day today for his new team, the Texas Rangers. DeGrom only went under 7.5 K’s in two of his 12 starts last season and 3 of his 15 starts in 2021 For us math geeks, that’s 5 out of 27 starts in 2 seasons meaning the over is hitting at an 81.5% clip. And the probability of a -150 line is 60%. So we are well above that giving us further confidence in riding the DeGrominator today (note: DK moved this to -170 this AM; probability is 63% so odds are still in our favor)

CORBIN BURNES under 1.5 ER’s (-120 DK)

Burnes has a career 2.62 career ERA at Wrigley Field. The weather is frigid with wind chills reported at close to 30 degrees during the game. The Cubs added a few offensive players but the lineup is still K heavy and relies on home runs. Burnes did struggle with the long-ball last year and looks to drive those numbers back down and show that was an anomoly.

Now that you finished reading the MLB Gophers and Gas article make sure to check out MLB Lineup Optimizer and our YouTube Livestream that breaks down the entire slate of games and gives you the info to nail MLB Prop Bets and DFS Plays.

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