by Dave Gloeckner

We have some really nice matchups tonight and are looking to keep up a modest winning streak. There are several pitchers with moderate K lines that we will look to exploit. And we have a few batters on recent hot streaks facing some enticing matchups.

After research and modeling, my favorite prop bets for today’s slate are below.

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BATTER PROPS

ELLY DE LA CRUZ over 1.5 hits+runs+rbi (-130 DK)

We’re going to back the kid making his MLB Debut in Cincinnati. There is no real book on the Reds phenom which gives him some advantage over season pitchers like the Dodgers Tony Gonsolin who relies on speed changes. It’s going to be fun in Cincy tonight and I like Cruz to put on a show.

NICK CASTELLANOS over 0.5 RBI’s (+180 Bet365)

The Phillies lineup is starting to heat up. And Castellanos is in the middle of it with 7 RBI’s in his past 4 games. He’s also batting 0.438 in his past 8 contests. Add all that with his career numbers off Alexander (2 for 4) and we have a good spot to attack.

LUIS ARRAEZ over 1.5 bases (+100 DK)

Arraez is hitting 0.567 with 17 hits in his last 8 games. He’s gone over this number in 3 straight games and 8 of his last 11. Plus it’s Greinke on the road.

JAKE BAUERS over 0.5 HR’s (+500 DK)

White Sox SP Lucas Giolito has allowed at least 1 home run in 6 straight starts. He’s allowed 11 on the season. I’ll go with the hot hitting Jake Bauers who is coming off a multi-home run game on Saturday against the Dodgers. He’s also hitting flyballs at a 60% clip. And don’t forget about the short porch in RF in NY.

PITCHER PROPS

MITCH KELLER over 7.5 K’s (+125 DK)

Oakland has cut down on their K rate of late. But they still had 10 K’s against Hunter Brown and Edward Cabrera over the past week. However, this is more about Keller and his 7 straight games of 8+ K’s or more. Plus money looks too good to be true in this matchup.

TONY GONSOLIN over 1.5 BB’s (-145 DK)

Cincy has the 5th highest walk rate on the season at 9.4%. And in the last week that’s gone up to 10.3%. Gonsolin has gone over this number in 3 straight games and 5 of 7 on this season.

LOGAN GILBERT over 5.5 K’s (-125 DK)

Gilbert has gone over this number in 9 of his 11 starts this season. Padres are 11th in K rate this season and in the past 7 games.

GAME BETS

TB RAYS over MINNESOTA TWINS -170 ML

The line is juicy but I like the Rays over the Twins tonight. Rays SP Zach Eflin is 6-0 at home with a 2.19 ERA. And the Twins SP Louie Varland has a FIP that is 1.5 runs higher than his ERA. That just means negative regression is inbound and will likely occur tonight in Tampa against one of the best lineups in baseball.

Now that you finished reading the MLB Gophers and Gas article make sure to check out MLB Lineup Optimizer and our YouTube Livestream that breaks down the entire slate of games and gives you the info to nail MLB Prop Bets and DFS Plays.

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