by Dave Gloeckner

We’re just past the 1/3rd point of the season and baseball and there are many surprises. If you read my season opening article on Futures bets, you’re enjoying where Tampa Bay, Texas, Arizona, San Diego and St Louis sit. We still need some help with the Angels and Red Sox but both being over 0.500 is a good place to be with ~100 games left. Anyway, you’re here for props and bets and we’re here to give those out now. Just keep an eye on those aforementioned teams as they work their way through the toughest part of the baseball season; June, July and August.

After research and modeling, my favorite prop bets for today’s slate are below.

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BATTER PROPS

SPENCER STEER over 1.5 hits+runs+rbi (-140 DK)

Speer has gone over this number in 10 of the past 12 games he started. And he’s batting 0.429 over that span. Cincinnati has one of the better offenses over the past few weeks so Steer should have plenty of opportunities to bang this over once again.

RYAN MCMAHON over 0.5 RBI’s (+210 Bet365)

McMahon leads the league with 14 RBI’s in the past 10 days. And he’s had an RBI is 6 of his past 9 games. This value is too good to pass on with a hot hitter going for +210.

ALEX BREGMAN over 1.5 bases (+140 DK)

Simply put, Bregman hits Angels SP Patrick Sandoval. He is 5 for 11 in his career off the Angels LHP. Plus he’s brining a 9 game hitting streak into today’s contest.

SHOHEI OHTANI over 0.5 HR’s (+280 DK)

I’m never in love with a HR prop under +300. But Javier is allowing an eye-opening 55% FB rate. And Ohtani has 4 homers in his last 10 games. He also has Javier in his book with 2 home runs in 16 at-bats. That’s three factors that align well and allow me to dive below my line and back Ohtani’s HR prop today.

PITCHER PROPS

LOGAN ALLEN over 4.5 K’s (-115 Bet365)

Allen is coming off a 10K performance versus the Orioles earlier this week. On the season, he’s gone over 4.5 K’s in 5 of his 7 starts. And we get a 4.5K line versus the team with the highest K rate in the majors. Sign me up!

GRAHAM ASHCRAFT over 5.5 K’s (+155 DK)

Milwaukee is striking out the 3rd most in the MLB with a clip of 26.9%. They’re also batting just 0.173 in that span. Ashcraft isn’t a strike out pitcher which is why this line is juiced to +155. But I’m good attacking here as I project a 50% probability of this prop hitting and a +155 bet has a 39% chance in betting odds. So we are getting good value here and the reason I’m pushing this one.

ANDREW HEANEY over 17.5 outs (-105 DK)

Heaney has gone over this number in 4 straight starts and 6 of 7 overall. He’s rounding into better form and today he gets the Mariners who are batting just 0.213 over the past 10 days (27th in baseball). Plus he saw Seattle once this season and went 6.2 innings in that outing.

GAME BETS

LA DODGERS over NY YANKEES -110 ML

The Dodgers are hitting 0.302 over the past 10 days which leads the MLB. Since returning home to LA, they’ve won 3 of 4 and are 6-4 in their last 10 games. And several Dodgers have good career numbers off Gerrit Cole including Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. Cole has pitched well, 6-0, but has two straight games allowing 5 runs and finished with a 5.18 ERA in May. Here’s to the hot Dodgers batting to put up enough to give Cole his first loss.

Now that you finished reading the MLB Gophers and Gas article make sure to check out MLB Lineup Optimizer and our YouTube Livestream that breaks down the entire slate of games and gives you the info to nail MLB Prop Bets and DFS Plays.

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