by Dave Gloeckner

We are off to an 8-4 start to our posted bets through articles and Discord this week. And we’re hoping to keep that rolling into tonight as we have some really good angles to attack. Overall, I’m +5.8 units this month which now makes it +21.8 units on the season.

After research and modeling, my favorite prop bets for today’s slate are below.

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BATTER PROPS

SHOHEI OHTANI over 0.5 RBI’s (+140 DK)

Ohtani hit his 22nd homer of the season yesterday to tie him with Pete Alonso for the MLB lead. That is now 7 HR’s in his last 10 games. Included in that stretch is 13 runs batted in and at least one RBI in 8 of his last 12 games.

TREA TURNER over 1.5 h+r+r (-140 DK)

The Phillies SS is having his best stretch of the 2023 season. In his last 7 games, he’s batting 0.379 with 5 multi-hit games. The Phillies are playing good baseball over the past 2 weeks as they’ve scored 80 runs in 14 games this month. They will look to keep that momentum going versus the worst pitching staff in baseball, the Oakland A’s, and I expect Turner to be in the middle of the offensive onslaught tonight.

LUIS ARRAEZ over 1.5 bases (-115 DK)

The chase for 0.400 has fizzled as Arraez is 0 for his last 15. But he’s still batting an impressive 0.378 on the season and you can’t keep a good bat like his down for long. In comes the Nationals and Trevor Williams who opponents are batting 0.259 off of this season. I like Arraez to get back on track tonight and go over his TB prop.

CORBIN CARROLL over 0.5 SB’s (+190 DK)

Guardians SP Tristan McKenzie has only 2 starts this year but he’s allowed 4 stolen bases total in those outings including 3 in his last start. Add to that an aggressive D’backs team and we like Carroll’s chances to swipe a bag tonight as he is 4th in the NL with 19 stolen bases.

MIKE FORD (SEA) over 0.5 HR’s (+550 DK)

Home run props have been dry of late but I’m going back to one well that has been flowing. And that is going against Michael Kopech who has a 50% fly ball rate and 16.9% HR/FB rate. In total, he’s allowed 15 gophers this season. Bring in Mike Ford who has four long balls in his last 7 games and I think we have a great opportunity to hit a +550 bet.

PITCHER PROPS

BRYAN WOO over 5.5 K’s (-115 DK)

White Sox have a 25% K rate over the past week. And Bryan Woo, while only in 2 starts, has 11 K’s in 6.2 innings pitched. I favor the pitcher in these types of matchups and think there is good value on Woo to have his best start of his career tonight versus Chicago.

ANDREW ABBOTT over 5.5 K’s (+120 BET365)

The young Reds SP has yet to allow a run in his first two games. And while that will likely come to an end tonight, I do like his K prop to go over. The main reason is that Houston is striking out at a high rate in the last week, 24.8%. And that was against subpar pitching in both Washington and Cleveland. So I’ll take a shot on a Reds rookie not named De La Cruz.

KEVIN GAUSMAN over 6.5 K’s (-125 DK)

Gausman had a surprisingly rough outing in his last start against the Twins as he struck out a season low 4 batters. But don’t let that outing scare you as he gone over 6.5 K’s in 10 of his 14 starts. Texas has a 22.6% K rate which is in the middle of the league and think that Gausman can rebound from a poor start and go over a number that is normally 1 to 2 K’s higher. Plus projected home plate umpire Jeremie Rehak has the highest K rate of any ump calling balls and strikes tonight.

GAME BETS

BREWERS -115 ML

Someone will break a losing streak in Milwaukee tonight! The Pirates are coming off a sweep at the hands of the Cubs. The Bucs allowed 28 runs in that 3 game set. And the Brewers have lost 6 in a row including being swept by the worst team in the league in the Oakland A’s. Fun stuff! But in the end, I’ll take Milwaukee as I’m backing Julio Teheran who has a 1.48 ERA in 4 starts.

Now that you finished reading the MLB Gophers and Gas article make sure to check out MLB Lineup Optimizer and our YouTube Livestream that breaks down the entire slate of games and gives you the info to nail MLB Prop Bets and DFS Plays.

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