by Dave Gloeckner

We went 5-3 in this article on Tuesday and returned +3.0 units for everyone (only lost 3 plus money props). We followed that back up with a 6-1 day on Wednesday in Discord which has helped bring our overall record this week to 13-7. Whether we call this a new week or the end of a good one, I see a lot a value on today’s card and look forward to cashing tickets.

After research and modeling, my favorite prop bets for today’s slate are below.

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BATTER PROPS

RONALD ACUNA over 2.5 hits+runs+rbi (-120 DK)

Pitchers can’t stop Acuna from putting MVP numbers. So the books have adjusted and inflated his props greatly including his H+R+R. But that’s OK by me as he’s gone over this big number in 5 of 8 games in June and he’s facing a pitcher he’s batting 0.500 off of today.

JD MARTINEZ over 0.5 RBI’s (+130 Bet365)

The Dodgers OF is 7 for 12 in his career off Phillies SP Taijuan Walker. Add to that, Walker allowed 8 ER’s against the Dodgers one month ago in a start in LA. And Martinez has 8 RBI’s in his last 8 games.

LUIS ARRAEZ over 1.5 bases (+105 DK)

The fact that Arraez is batting over 0.400 going into the middle part of June is truly amazing. Put him on almost any other team and you have a story that is the cover article for SI. But instead he’s in Miami and chugging away quietly for a team that is in 2nd place in the NL East. And he’s gone over this prop in 6 of his last 7 games.

COREY JULKS over 0.5 SB’s (+250 DK)

Guardians SP Shane Bieber has allowed 8 stolen bases on the year which is good for T8 in the AL. On the other side, Julks has 4 stolen bases in the month of June and is batting 2nd today for the Astros.

PITCHER PROPS

BRAXTON GARRETT over 4.5 K’s (-115 DK)

We spoke about it on the WInDaily SiriusXM show this morning but to reiterate it here, the White Sox are coming into this game batting in the bottom 5 in the league in June. Plus they’ve increased their K rate by 3% and are now above the key number of 25%. Add to that, Garrett has gone over this number in 5 of his last 6 starts and we have a good prop to attack.

MITCH KELLER over 5.5 K’s (-120 DK)

Look at my writeup below with the Mets/Pirates under. The home plate umpire for today, Dan Merzel, has the highest K rate of any umpires named to be behind the catcher. This is great news for Keller who had an awesome K streak that just got snapped.

HUNTER GREENE over 6.5 K’s (-125 DK)

Greene had 27 K’s in 19 innings against the Cardinals last season and he’s on a heater right now with 37 K’s in his last 4 starts.

GAME BETS

SF GIANTS -140 ML

The Giants are trying to prevent a sweep today. The Cubs have lost the last 5 starts that SP Hayden Wesneski has started. I like their chances of not letting the Cubs leave SF with a broom in hand.

METS/PIRATES UNDER 8.5 RUNS (+100 DK)

Let me layout the last 5 games umpire Dan Merzel has been behind the home plate:

6/8/23 – Yankees 3 – Guardians 0

6/2/23 – Twins 1 – Guardians 0

5/29/23 – Cubs 1 – Rays 0

5/25/23 – Cardinals 2 – Cubs 1

5/21/23 – Mets 2 – Guardians 1

I think you see the trend but just to point it out, there hasn’t been one game with more than 3 total runs scored!

Now that you finished reading the MLB Gophers and Gas article make sure to check out MLB Lineup Optimizer and our YouTube Livestream that breaks down the entire slate of games and gives you the info to nail MLB Prop Bets and DFS Plays.

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