Adam Strangis MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 5/4
Wednesday brings us a tidy split slate with six games in the afternoon and seven in the evening. That is where the similarities end on the pitching front because the evening slate offers some options that the afternoon simply does not. We’ll be breaking from the normal format on the afternoon slate and reverting to it on the main in the MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 5/4 to find green screens!
Early Slate
If you’re here for the first time, welcome in. We normally split up the slate in Aces, Mid-Tier, and Punt Range (and we do for the evening slate) but the afternoon is an anomaly. There are only a few options to even consider and it starts and ends with Justin Verlander. Cash games will start with Verlander without fail and the veteran just keeps on trucking. His K rate is 29.8%, he’s not walking anyone with a 4.3% walk rate, and the xFIP is 2.90. We can wish the fly-ball rate was a tick lower at 46.7% or the swinging-strike rate was a bit higher than 10.2% but Verlander knows how to get it done. Anything that he’s lost on the slider (27.5% whiff rate) has been made up by the 40.7% whiff rate on the curve. Both sides of the plate are under a .235 wOBA to this point and it is hard to see any other pitcher matching his upside here.
Tylor Megill is up next and I keep worrying about a tougher matchup for him but he’s scored at least 23 DK points in four of his five starts this year. His four-seam has seen a velocity bump to 95.7 mph on average and all three of his main pitches have a whiff rate over 23%, capped by his slider at 40%. Megill is only throwing that pitch 17.8% of the time but that and the four-seam have combined for 24 strikeouts already. While Atlanta is strong against fastballs at eighth, they are 19th against the slider and the K rate for Megill is 25.2%. I generally prefer pitchers at this salary to have a higher K rate but for this slate, 25.2% passes as elite. It helps that he also has a 5.4% barrel rate and a 25.7% hard-hit rate to go along with a 2.91 xFIP and 2.72 FIP combo. The best part for Megill is he could face seven righties, who he has held to a .204 wOBA, 1.64 xFIP, and a 34.1% K rate.
I feel like Adam Wainwright is a tap again, although the salary has come down in salary at least. He’s looked mortal in every start but the ones against Pittsburgh and Miami and in honesty, Wainwright has had a sweetheart schedule so far but is averaging under 15 DK points per game. The 4.00 ERA is mostly supported by the 4.38 xERA although the FIP/xFIP match at 3.45. His K rate is 22.4% but the walk rate has really exploded on him at 10.3%, which is a concern with the age involved here. Now, it’s not all bad for Wainwright since he’s generating a 53.8% ground ball rate and a hard-hit rate under 27% but the largest red flag in my eyes is the 5.5% swinging-strike rate. That is a big issue and both sides of the plate have a wOBA over .315. What this will boil down to is how many lefties the Royals play. That side has a 16.4% K rate and a 4.35 xFIP with a .375 wOBA while the righties are sitting at a 1.99 xFIP, 32.6% K rate, and wOBA of .317. Kansas City only strikes out 21% of the time so I do like the double-ace approach for the most part.
I think Michael Pineda could be popular and I get it to an extent but through his 10 IP so far, he has a 4.48 xFIP, 6.18 FIP, a 10.3% K rate, and lefties have tagged him for a .485 wOBA. Pittsburgh is 20th or worse in wRC+, wOBA, OPS, OBP, and ISO but if they have a bunch of lefties in the lineup, it’s a scary proposition.
Stacks
Cardinals
Astros
Padres
D-Backs – Hernandez allows a .413 wOBA, .958 OPS, and a 3.60 HR/9 to lefties, and the Arizona lineup is riddled with them.
Marlins/Pirates – We can utilize a mini-stack as value to afford bigger bats and aces on this slate, which the aces feel needed.
Aces
Lucas Giolito ($9,500 DK/$10,000 FD)
The profile for Giolito is a little bit odd because he’s only had three starts that have totaled 14 IP. Still, he’s had the strikeouts working (37.9%) to go along with an 18.3% swinging-strike rate and that is despite using his changeup less than last season. It is down about 10% to 22% so far but it’s generated a 51.9% whiff rate and the four-seam is actually down in velocity but the whiff rate is 36.4%, up over 10%. One aspect that Giolito is doing well is throwing first-pitch strikes at a 65.5% rate. That would be a career-high for him and is helping generate the swings and misses despite not using the changeup as much. On the flip side, the O-contact% is extremely low at 39.2% compared to his career mark of 57.6% so as I said – the profile is weird so far but the results have certainly been there. The xFIP is only 2.43 compared to the ERA of 2.57 and it’s always nice to see those numbers aligned early. The Cubs are up to 12th in K rate against righties at 23.7% although they are also top 10 in wOBA, wRC+, OPS, and OBP. We’ll see what the weather holds for Wrigley but Giolito has been excellent and the pitch count should be a non-issue tonight.
Honorable Mention
I don’t believe we’re going to need him on this slate but Nestor Cortes is pretty interesting as an against-the-grain option. The pricing is going to leave him behind Giolito by a good bit, I would imagine. Cortes faced the Blue Jays lineup in the first start of the season and went 4.1 IP with five strikeouts and no runs allowed with a 2.27 xFIP. Some folks may have a sour taste in their mouth after the last game for Cortes where he wasn’t at his best but so far, Toronto isn’t above 15th in our categories and they are striking out 23% of the time.
Mid-Range
Freddy Peralta ($8,900 DK/$8,800 FD)
It appears that he may have turned the corner in his last start, pitching six scoreless innings with seven strikeouts and three hits allowed. Things are starting to match up because his ERA is down to 5.00 with the xFIP of 3.32 and FIP of 2.75. He’s suffering from a high BABIP of .333 and the K rate is still 29.5% with a swinging-strike rate of 13%. Those are down a bit from his 2021 season and he’s having more trouble finding the strike zone with his first pitch at 51.3%. That is not helping the effectiveness of the slider since it is giving up a .436 wOBA and has dropped to a 22.2% whiff rate from 43.3% last season. It was always weird last year to see the slider only had 65 strikeouts compared to 110 for the four-seam and so far, it’s a 14:1 ratio this year. The Reds have been a dreadful offense so far and Peralta has flipped into being better against lefties with a.240 wOBA and 34.3% K rate compared to a .352 wOBA and 25.6% K rate against the right side. The xFIP for both sides are close though and the Reds offense is 11th in K rate against righty pitching at 23.9%.
Dylan Bundy ($8,300 DK/$8,900 FD)
We had some fears about Bundy the last time he was on a slate for us and those fears turned out to be well-founded as he get beat up a little bit. This is a much better spot against the Orioles as they have the seventh-highest K rate against righty pitching and the more righty hitters they play, the more interested I am in Bundy. His K rate against that side of the plate is 29.3% this year and it has a lot to do with his slider. Of the 67 he’s thrown so far, 66 have been against the right side of the plate and it has nine strikeouts, a .220 wOBA, and a 42.4% whiff rate. His changeup has been the secondary pitch against the left side and that’s a solid weapon but it’s not special with just two strikeouts on the year. Both sides of the plate are under a .275 wOBA to this point so the salary for Bundy is deserved and the Baltimore offense is still sketchy at best.
Garrett Whitlock ($7,800 DK/$6,900 FD)
This could be a fairly risky play because Whitlock has yet to exceed 61 pitches so he’s not going to be in there for more than five innings most likely. Whitlock may not be getting deep into games yet but his metrics are very appealing, including his 31.3% K rate, a 6.3% walk rate, a 15.8% swinging-strike rate, and a 34.6% CSW. He’s using the sinker a ton at almost 60% but when he throws the slide, it has been incredible with a 62.5% whiff rate and those two pitches have 19 of 20 strikeouts. Whitlock is really only using it against the right side of the plate and he’s projected to see five of them in the Angels lineup. That’s a strong reason why the K rate is 32.4% against the right side of the plat and the xFIP is 1.89. Knowing he’s not going deep limited the ceiling to an extent but he can rack up the strikeouts in a hurry, just like he did with seven in four innings against the Rays.
Punt Range
Austin Gomber ($6,700 DK)
Normally, we don’t look at pitchers who only have an 8.3% swinging-strike rate and a 20.9% CSW. That’s doubly so when a pitcher is in Coors but Gomber is cheap enough and the Washington offense is struggling enough to get him on the radar as a punt tonight. We’ve seen hitters from Coors be heavy chalk this year and it does not pay off plenty of times and Gomber pitched extremely well in Coors last year with a 2.09 ERA, .254 wOBA, a WHIP under 1.00, and a 3.87 FIP. The Nationals aren’t striking out a lot against lefties at just 16.1% but Gomber is so cheap that you don’t need many strikeouts. The slider and curve still both get a whiff rate over 25% and both have a wOBA under .200 and they’ve accounted for 15 of 20 strikeouts. The Nats are 26th against the slider and 10th against the curve so there is a path to success here for Gomber.
Honorable Mention
Kyle Bradish is somewhat on the radar as I think the talent is there but the metrics looked pretty rough after one start. It may be better to take a wait-and-see approach with him for now outside of maybe 1-2 lineups in MME.
Stacks
Rockies (any RHH in the lineup – Cron, Grichuk, Iglesias, Joe, Diaz, Daza)
Yankees (also any RHH in the lineup – Judge, Stanton, LeMahieu, value bats at the bottom of the order)
Red Sox
Dodgers
Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 5/4 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
