Adam Strangis MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 5/3
We have an 11-game Coors slate on tap for tonight and the pitching options get a little shaky after the top tier, though I do think there are options to be had. The top three pitchers are very appealing and I can see myself living in that range a good bit but I’m sure we can find some hidden gems along the way. Let’s not wait around any longer to get into who we like and why in the MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 5/3 to find green screens!
Ace Tier
Carlos Rodon ($10,000 DK/$11,100 FD)
The Dodgers are no fun to pitch against, regardless of which hand you throw with. It would be silly to expect LA to remain 18th in OPS, 24th in OBP, 18th in ISO, 18th in wOBA, and 18th in wRC+ to go along with a 24% K rate against lefties all season long. However, that is where they are right now and Rodon has been ridiculously good so far. The ERA is 1.17, the FIP is 0.96, and the xFIP is 2.21 in part because he’s generating a 43.2% K rate, which currently leads the majors. Sure, that’s not going to be elevated to that extent forever but hitters are swinging and missing at 15.9% of his pitches right now and the slider is up to a 53.8% whiff rate. His velocity is still up but not massively but the combo of a 96.3 mph four-seam and the slider is lethal. The overlay that is linked is from last year so imagine that four-seam getting on you even quicker and dealing with that. Even though the Dodges can load it up with dangerous righties, they only have a .215 wOBA and the K rate is still 40%. Lefties may need to just pray they make contact with a 56.3% K rate and while another ace has a much easier matchup, you had better believe Rodon will be in my lineups to some extent.
Alek Manoah ($9,700 DK/$10,400 FD)
I think some people realize just how good Manoah is but I’m not sure he gets mentioned with the elite pitchers in the game enough, given what he’s put on paper through 136.2 career IP. He’s taken it up a notch this year to this point with a 1.44 ERA, even though the xFIP is a touch scary at 3.73. If that’s the one thing he needs to calm down, it is the fly-ball rate because it is 50% but if he gets to play with the ball MLB continues to throw out that is impossible to hit, maybe it’s not that big of a deal. Nobody can barrel him up with just a 3.1% barrel rate and an 18.8% hard-hit rate and Manoah is inducing a 13.6% swinging-strike rate. He’s throwing the four-seam more at 42.5% so far with a 28.3% whiff rate and the slider is at just under 30% with a 36.4% whiff rate. The combo must be very deceptive because the velocity on the four-seam is barely over 94 mph. He’s a good fit against the Yanks as far as handedness because righties have a .148 wOBA, .096 average, and a 28.6% K rate. There shouldn’t be more than 2-3 lefties in the lineup and Manoah has already walked through NY for 28 DK points this season.
Joe Ryan ($9,500 DK/$10,200 FD)
The past of least resistance tonight certainly belongs to Ryan among the ace tier as he faces the Orioles. Ryan has been absurd so far and his xFIP is a “flag” by my strict definitions because it is over two runs higher than the ERA, 3.31 compared to 1.17. However, 3.31 is not bad at all and the 2.96 FIP backs things up as well. The 30.1% K rate is excellent and the swinging-strike rate of 13.8% is great to see as well. The fly-ball rate is a bit higher than I’d like at 53.1% but that feels like a nitpick if we’re being honest because the hard-hit rate is under 29.5% and he’s only thrown 49.1 innings at the major-league level. He’s been lights out with a .186 wOBA to righties and he jumps to a 39.1% K rate against that side of the plate while the Orioles may throw out six of them tonight. He’s beginning to trust the slider more as he’s using it 30.3% of the time this year (compared to 16% last year) and the whiff rate is 42.6% with just a .229 wOBA allowed. Combining that with a four-seam that has allowed a .219 wOBA is what is bringing him the majority of his success and Baltimore is 23rd against the slider and 27th against the fastball.
Honorable Mention
Michael Kopech has been quite good in real life, but a bit lacking in the strikeout department as he transitions from reliever to starter. The Cubs have improved their strikeout rate to this point of the season with just a 23.7% rate while Kopech is sitting under 25%. He is stretched out to 94 pitches but I do wonder if he can hang with the upside of the other three pitchers in this tier.
Mid Tier
I will be totally honest – I don’t believe there is a player in this tier that is worth a full write-up and vote of confidence. Yes, there are pitchers that are interesting and I can build a case for them succeeding but it’s going to be a flimsy case. Let’s run through the names and some good and bad around them.
I don’t know what to do with Brandon Woodruff. On the one hand, the Reds are 10th in K rate and then bottom five in wRC+, wOBA, OPS, and OBP. The matchup is sterling but aside from one start, Woodruff has not found his footing, and the xFIP is 4.28. That’s better than his 5.30 ERA but something isn’t right and it’s hard to figure out what. The K rate is down 7% and some of it has been bad luck with a .315 BABIP and 59.3% strand rate. His hard-hit rate is down this year and his swinging-strike rate is in line with 2021. He’s finding the zone a little less at 41.3% compared to 45.6% last year and the velocity is fine. I do like the FIP is under 3.00 and if there’s a matchup to wake him up, it’s this one. I just have some reservations about him being a smash play.
Michael Wacha looks mildly interesting, right? He just pitched a great game against the Blue Jays and the Angels are a tough matchup as well. What I worry about is the K rate for Wacha is 21.3% and the walk rate is spiked at 11.3%. The sharpest concern is his best whiff pitch is the changeup at over 37% and it has allowed just a .202 wOBA but the Angels are the best team in the majors against the change. They also walk at the ninth-highest rate and Wacha could really get mashed.
I likely won’t touch Julio Urias because the Dodgers have some serious kid gloves on him right now. His pitch counts have been 57, 65, 75, and 81 so you might get him for 90 pitches and at that point, the pressure is on to be great. With a K rate of 20.5% and some lower pitch counts, I’m just not that interested.
Punt Tier
Bruce Zimmermann ($6,100 DK)
This is strictly a DK SP2 play but Zimmermann is becoming a bit of a favorite of mine. He’s changed the grip on his changeup this season and it has helped a TON. Not only did he bump it up to a 32.8% usage, but it also has a 34% whiff rate and his slider has played well with a 65% whiff rate (although he’s only throwing it 15.4% of the time). Those two pitches have 19 of his 21 strikeouts and I’ll be the first one to tell you he has to figure out the four-seam. It has a whiff rate of 6.3% (gulp) and a wOBA of .566 (yikes). Minnesota has the most PA against lefty pitching so far and they are top 12 in our categories so it’s another matchup that isn’t easy for Zimmermann after a start against the Yanks. However, the Twins also whiff at the ninth-highest rate at 24.6% so even though they are ninth against the change, Zimmermann can navigate it. The ERA/xFIP combo is 0.93/2.86 along with a K rate of 26.3%. Even the WHIP is ridiculous at 0.47 and he’s limited the fly-ball rate to 29.4% with a hard-hit rate of 17%. It’s not the safest spot but the new Camden Yards has been a massive boost for pitching so far and I like Zimmermann a good deal on the cheaper end. Lastly, it should be noted that he’s had a tough stretch with the Yankees twice and the Angels, and he averaged 19.3 DK points.
Christian Javier ($6,800 DK/$7,600 FD)
If I told you guys that there was a pitcher on this slate that had a 31% K rate since the start of last year, you’d be interested right? Well, Javier is on the mound tonight and he’s pitched only 114.2 innings since the start of last season but the fact remains he’s struck out 31% of the hitters he has faced. He is yet to hit $7,000 and while the 3.39 xFIP is plenty higher than the 1.35 ERA, let’s not pretend like that’s a bad mark especially when the FIP is 2.79. Javier won’t boast a 95.2% strand rate forever and he appears to be the rare pitcher than survives a 55.2% fly-ball rate (someone who probably is enjoying the stupid new ball).
What has always been weird with Javier is his first-strike rate has never been above the 49% he currently sports so there is room for him to get better, if he could figure that out. Another interesting tidbit is the slider had a 49% whiff rate last year and 55 strikeouts but this year, he’s throwing it more and it only has a 20.7% whiff rate. His four-seam has carried the swings and misses with a 33.3% rate and those two pitches have all 16 of his strikeouts. Seattle is the best fastball team by a lot but they are 28th against the slider and both sides of the plate are under a .265 wOBA with a K rate of 41.2% against righties. That was basically the way of 2021 so the more righties, the better, and Seattle could have 4-5 of them. He’s only 25 and still has improvements to make.
Honorable Mention
I’ll bet that Brad Keller is popular and I get why. He’s pitched well with a 55.9% ground ball rate and a 2.19 ERA, although the xFIP of 3.38 is a bit higher. While he’s cheap, the K rate is still under 19% and the Cardinals are a tough team to whiff at just 19.2%, tied for the lowest against righty pitching. We still want some strikeouts regardless of the salary and Keller has been slightly worse against the right side of the plate (still under a .250 wOBA) but what really worries me is the K rate drops it just 12.2%. That’s not ideal against what is typically a righty-heavy lineup.
Stacks
We haven’t talked about the White Sox very often this season because frankly, they haven’t been good against righty pitching. Lefties are a different story and Drew Smyly is allowing a 2.30 HR/9, 16.7% K rate, 5.39 FIP, and a .347 wOBA against righty hitters. He’s turned to his curve as a primary pitch because his four-seam just gets wrecked and all of Tim Anderson, Andrew Vaughn, Luis Robert, and Yasmani Grandal have wOBA’s over .410 and ISO’s over 2.85 (except for Grandal). That doesn’t even count Jose Abreu and Jake Burger, who are both over .335 for the wOBA and Abreu certainly has a higher ceiling. Vaughn, Grandal, and Abreu are the best curveball hitters on the team and Vaughn is tied for 16th among major league hitters. Hopefully, he makes it back tonight but even if not, Chicago is riddled with value hitters and they are very cheap.
I always hesitate to write up Coors stacks because they are usually heavily rostered but once again, DK did us no favors with the Washington salaries. Juan Soto is in Coors and he’s only $4,800, which is truly mind-boggling. Soto and Josh Bell have been hammering righty pitching with wOBA’s over .445 and ISO’s over .190 and they are wildly underpriced. German Marquez is not a gas can but he is allowing wOBA over .360 against each side of the plate so far and we can add Cesar Hernandez and Nelson Cruz for far cheaper than it should be. The Rockies are also likely to be popular, as is always the case with a Coors slate.
Honorable Mention
Tigers
Blue Jays
Rays
Astros
Pirates
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