Adam Strangis MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 4/17
We have a full slate of action this Sunday afternoon with 10 games and some actual options at the top of the grid. The mid-range and below start to get questionable so we’re going to have some work to do with those pitchers to find some options. Let’s dig into the MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 4/17and figure out who’s the main target up top and who needs to complement them!
Ace Tier
Alek Manoah ($10,000 DK/$10,000 FD)
Manoah took the ball in his first stat in New York and shoved for six innings, whiffing seven hitters on 89 pitches while walking four. The Yankees only got him for one hit and he generated a 50% ground ball rate, 13.5% swinging-strike rate, and the velocity was up just a tick. It was notable that his four-seam got a whiff rate of 41.2% compared to 32.5% last year and the slider jumped up by 7.4% as well. Manoah already displayed a 27.7% K rate during last season, if he’s got even better swing-and-miss stuff, the sky could really be the limit here. His K strut game is also elite already. We touched on this yesterday that Oakland has been better than advertised so far but they are in the bottom half of the league against righty pitching. Additionally, they have a K rate over 26% against righties and Manoah was excellent with walking four hitters and the salary dropped for some reason on DK. I can’t help but go right back to him.
Zack Wheeler ($10,200 DK/$10,200 FD)
There was some good and bad in the first start for Wheeler as he rolls into a matchup with the Marlins today. The good was he only allowed one earned run in 4.2 IP and he only walked one hitter. Wheeler also managed to generate a 32.3% CSW and only allowed one barrel all day. Now, the bad news is his velocity was way down at 95 mph on the four-seam compared to 97.2 last season, and his whiff rate dropped from 26% in 2021 to just 10% in the first turn. Perhaps his arm wasn’t where it needed to be because he also threw just 65 pitches, so getting to 90 is probably about as high as he could go. That’s an advantage to Manoah right off the bat and the swinging-strike rate was concerning as well at 6.2%. That would be bad enough but when it goes hand-in-hand with a drop in velocity, that’s more notable. If he can ramp up the four-seam, my caution may look silly but I don’t trust that or the pitch count right now. Who knows how long this can last but Miami is too 10 in OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ right now, and they’re under 21% for their K rate against righty pitching. The K rate was dead even to each side of the plate last year at 29.1% and the xFIP was lower at 2.61 so there is potential here with likely six righties for Miami, but there are some concerns here as well.
Alex Wood ($9,500 DK/$9,800 FD)
I think Wood is definitely the third of the expensive guys but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t have some upside at the salary. It was very notable that the sinker for Wood was up over 93 mph for the average (91.8 mph last year)and he may have fallen in love with it just a bit since it also hit 95 mph in portions of the game. Wood threw that pitch 52.3% of the time and threw fewer changeups, while his slider had a 55.6% whiff rate. The newfound velocity is great but last year the slider was the strikeout pitch with 91 strikeouts and the sinker still gave up four hits which included a home run. The swinging-strike rate was down to 9.3% compared to 12.5% but the CSW was 32.6% so Wood was still fooling hitters. Cleveland has been white-hot so far but we’ve seen a talented pitcher can get through that lineup as Carlos Rodon did on Friday. Now, Wood is not Rodon but he did have a 26% K rate last year and added to his arsenal. Cleveland is also striking out almost 26% of the time against lefties so far so Wood could be a strong GPP-pivot today if the other two are major chalk.
Honorable Mention – I’ll give Aaron Civale a mention strictly because he’s always handled lefties in his career with a .283 wOBA, 23.6% K rate, 3.98 xFIP, and a 1.08 WHIP. The Giants are likely to throw out five lefties but the salary is not very appealing in my eyes. His K rate for his career is just 20.5% and it gets difficult to build paths to success over $9,000 with that low of a mark, in addition to a career 4.31 xFIP. Oh, by the way, San Francisco is a top-five offense in OPS, ISO, wOBA, wRC+, and OBP against righties so far.
Mid-Range
Nestor Cortes ($8,200 DK/$8,400 FD)
This range is mostly gross but Cortes does stand out among the crowd with some potential. It’s always going to catch our eye to some extent when a pitcher can walk through the Blue Jays lineup but Cortes did that trick through 4.1 IP and 72 pitches thrown. While his swinging-strike rate doesn’t stand out in any way at 8.3%, he still got five strikeouts and didn’t allow a single barrel. The fly-ball tendencies were still there with a 45% rate but the xFIP, FIP, and xERA were all under 2.45 from that start and the Orioles have moved their fences back this year. So far, that’s had a big effect as they’re still looking for the first home run from a visitor. This cutter is from last season but it shows how big of a weapon it is for Cortes and he’s started to utilize it as a back-door cutter to righties (on the outside of the plate). That would make life more difficult and so far, Baltimore is striking out almost 30% of the time and is in the bottom 10 in wRC+, wOBA, ISO, and OPS. Cortes only has 17 career starts under his belt but he is starting to turn into a very strong pitcher.
Honorable Mention – Some may want to play Dakota Hudson and I get it to an extent. The Brewers offense has been horrific in the early going, sitting in the bottom five in almost all offensive categories. I simply don’t pay these prices for pitchers that have so little strikeout ability as Hudson is at 18.2% for his career. Some days I miss on good starts but I avoid an $8,600 land mine more often than not and that trend continues today.
I know some in the Discord will be on Bruce Zimmermann and after seeing the Yankees offense this first week plus a little bit…I’m not going to say no outright. The New York offense is built in a certain way and they’re going to have some prolonged cold stretches, as they are now. They have the third-most PA against righty pitching and are 15th in average and wRC+, 19th in OBP, wOBA, OPS, 18th in ISO, and they have a 25.4% K rate. Just keep in mind they can break out with frightening speed and Zimmermann is a leftyz and NY is better suited for lefty pitching. Even though theyve been bad against righties, that may not transfer to this spot although Zimmermann has a career ERA over 5.00 with a K rate of barely 20.1%. Both sides of the plate have wOBA’s over .345 and RHH have the better success with a 1.96 HR/9 and 4.81 xFIP on top of it.
Punt Tier
David Peterson ($6,700 DK)
This is a DK-only play for me because you’re playing Peterson in conjunction with a better pitcher to hopefully form a tag team more than a solo act. Peterson was forced into long relief when Taijuan Walker had to leave the game last time and is now on the IL. He threw 58 pitches and is on schedule, so we should get 70-75 I would bet unless the Dodgers are in charge. He’d only pitch 60 in that case but I digress. I can’t pretend Peterson is anything special as the lefty has 120.1 IP on the major-league level and has a 4.42 xFIP and just a 22.1% K rate. Think about that for a second though and you can get a 22% K rate for about $2,000 less than Hudson from St. Louis. Peterson also gets a spectacular matchup as Arizona is dead last in wRC+, ISO (they are the only team at .000 through 58 PA), and batting average. Peterson does have a solid ground ball rate and he used the change/sinker combo around 60% of the time. That would be a shift in his mix from his sample in 2021 and the four-seam was his primary pitch. There is a risk with pitchers at this salary and while Peterson is very average, the matchup pushes him onto the table. I’d prefer to play him in GPP unless we have to play him with the field in cash.
Honorable Mention – I’d love to play Aaron Ashby as I’m a sucker for pitching prospects, especially when they can do this. The issue is (granted, 46 PA so far) the Cards have gone scorched Earth on lefties, ranking first in wRC+, wOBA, ISO, OPS, and average. The ISO as a team is .442 and the next best squad is the White Sox…at .279. We’ll catch Ashby another time.
Stacks
The Tampa Bay Rays jump out here facing Vince Velasquez, who walked away from his firs stat with some horrifying metrics. He gave up a 25% barrel rate, had an xFIP over 7.56, a fly-ball rate of 75%, more walks than strikeouts, and a swinging-strike rate of 8.1%. The results didn’t look bad but he was a blowup waiting to happen with an average exit velocity of 95 mph and a launch angle of 37.1%. He’s always been worse to lefties with a .355 wOBA and a 4.48 xFIP with a WHIP over 1.50, so this is a very poor matchup from that respect. Tampa should play at least five here and Vinnie Melo pounded fastballs to the left side in the first start. Brandon Lowe, Wander Franco, Brett Phillips, Ji-Man Choi, and Kevin Kiermaier hit the fastball well last year and that doesn’t even include Josh Lowe, who is still cheap at least. All of the other Rays were at least above a .300 wOBA and all but Franco had an ISO over .150.
We can also mix and match Mets since they get to face Humberto Castellanos of the D-Backs and in his 59.1 career IP, the xFIP is 5.12, the K rate is just 16.5%, and his swinging-strike rate is 7.7%. His primary pitch to lefties is the four-seam and it’s gotten mashed for a wOBA over .360 since last year in his sample size. Unsurprisingly, he’s worse against lefties with a .361 wOBA, xFIP over 6.00, and a HR/9 over 1.88. Now, he’s not good against righties either so we can go full bore here. Francisco Lindor, Jeff McNeil, Robinson Cano, and Eduardo Escobar can all be played from the left side and Pete Alonso was the best fastball hitter on the Mets last year. Starling Marte is expensive but I’m betting the field agrees, leaving him lower-rostered than he should be.
Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 4/17 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
