Adam Strangis MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 4/16
It’s Saturday in the majors and that means split slates with a day slate and then the main slate in the evening, so there are plenty of options to choose from. The quality of those options is up to debate to some extent but there are solid choices on both slates. Let’s get right into all the action today and tonight in the MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 4/16 to find our green screens again!
Ace Tier (Early)
Note – The early slate is split differently depending on which site you’re on. DK has a six-game slate that starts at 1:00 p.m. but FD is six games that starts at 4:00 p.m. In truth, the only pitching plays that look strong on FD that isn’t available on DK are Anthony DeSclafani and Ranger Suarez. I’m not super motivated to play DeSclafani as the most expensive option there and the fact he was worse to lefties last year with a .301 wOBA and a 1.21 WHIP. Cleveland could put more than a few lefties into the lineup so if that happens, I’d be more likely to go elsewhere. Suarez got blistered in his first start but he did get a ground ball rate of 69% and the Marlins are in the bottom three of every offensive category and they lead in K rate at over 39%. It’s a great bounce-back spot and the salary works on FD to be sure.
As far as DK, this appears to be a slate where the bats are going to do the talking. I’m not finding myself all that interested in either of the pitchers that are above $9,000 (the cutoff for aces, generally). Sonny Gray takes on the Red Sox in Boston and while the Sox bats have been cold to start the year against righties, his xFIP was 4.48 in the first start and the K rate was 20%. I do have to give him the fact the swinging-strike rate was 11.8% but he gave up a wOBA over .295 to each side of the plate last year. I’m not going to be in the habit of attacking the Red Sox unless the sample gets bigger and they aren’t striking out much at just 18.9%.
Zac Gallen does have some strikeout upside with a career 27.6% K rate but his swinging-trike rate was only 9.1% last year and that was the first time he pitched more than 80 innings in a season. Both sides of the plate had a wOBA of at least .306 and these just aren’t metrics that we want to pay a big salary for. I’m betting that one of these pitchers might be chalky for cash games and that’s fine but I won’t be pitching them other than that. There’s too many issues around them to feel that safe.
Mid-Range
Hyun Jin Ryu ($8,500 DK)
This is an interesting spot because Ryu got pummeled in his first start but his metrics painted a much rosier picture with a 3.31 xFIp compared to his 16.20 ERA, his K rate was 23.5%, and the BABIP was .400. He’s really not a pitcher that is going to get a big whiff rate on any one pitch and that happened again as nothing was over 22.2%. Everything as far as velocity looked the same as it did last year and now we get to the matchup. The A’s have bit us on some slates so far but on the season, they are still an average offense in OBP, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ against lefty pitching. Oakland has the seventh-most plate appearances to lefties and they also have the sixth-highest K rate at 31.8%. I don’t believe we have any safe options on the early slate but I do think Ryu gets back in the saddle today and is firmly in play given the slate context.
Carlos Carrasco ($7,900 DK)
Picking on the Diamondbacks has been profitable so far and I would expect that to continue through most of the year and Carrasco put together an encouraging start in the first game. His CSW got over 30% with a 13.9% swinging-strike rate and he did not walk a hitter. Giving up three barrels is not ideal in just 79 pitches but the xFIP was still only 3.07 so that’s a strong mark. Another strong aspect today for Carrasco is Arizona has a ton of lefties and even in a tough year last year, Carrasco was far superior to that side of the plate with a .299 wOBA, 1.03 HR/9, and 4.08 WHIP. The K rate dips below 24% which is a small issue but the salary helps make up for that and he still had a whiff ate of at least 18% for his slider/change/four-seam mix that was the bulk to lefty hitters in the first start. Arizona has a K rate over 26% so far this season and they are hitting under .150 as a team while sitting in 24th in wOBA and 26th in wC+.
Michael Kopech ($7,000 DK)
Another reason I’m not spending much on pitching today is because I have the ability to play a fireballer like Kopech who has a career K rate against lefties of 41.5% across 159 batters faced. The Rays could throw as many as six out there in this game and Kopech threw 69 pitches in his last game, so 80-85 makes plenty of sense. The K rate may fall some since he’s not a reliever at this point but even if it drops by 10% against lefties…that’s still interesting. Kopech has only started nine games in his career so there are going to be bumps in the road to be sure. One aspect that’s a little concerning is his four-seam velocity was down by two mph in that first start but he also was dealing with injuries in spring. It could be he just wasn’t all the way there yet with his arm strength and if he regains his form, he is too cheap for the pitch count. Much like the others, he’s not safe but there’s sky-high potential.
Punt Tier
Nick Martinez ($6,700 DK/$7,500 FD)
Martinez is a pitcher that we need to be careful as far as saying one great start is the normal for Martinez because he was out of the league for so long. That being said, it was a strong first start with a 1.82 FIP, 28.6% K rate, 14.5% swinging-strike rate, and a 38.6% CSW. Something that is a concern is the fly-ball rate of 53.8% and the hard-hit rate over 38% and the wOBA’s were still over .300 against each side of the plate. His four-seam sat at 92.4 mph and had a .525 wOBA, another reason to at least be a little bit cautious here. The positives were his cutter/change/curve mix all totaled up 52% of his pitches and they were fantastic with at least a 45.5% whiff rate and he didn’t give up a hit with them. If the four-seam gets figured out, there could be something here with Martinez. Atlanta is 14th against that pitch early on and that would match the ranking of 13th from last year so there is danger, but he’s not terribly expensive and the Braves are also whiffing at 25.7% so far.
Stacks
Since we’re not likely spending up on pitching, the Jays certainly look fun. Paul Blackburn had a great start in the first turn but he has a career 4.55 xFIP, 13.5% K rate, and a 7.1% swinging-strike rate. Now, I’m more likely to use 2-3 man stacks on this slate in lieu of a huge one but Blackburn has allowed a .347 wOBA and just an 11.5 K rate to the right side in his career. That means we’re looking at the main candidates in Vlad Jr., George Springer, and Bo Bichette. We can also chase the Tigers/Royals game because Matt Manning had some troubling metrics in his first start and Kris Bubic got hammered. On the Royals side, Bobby Witt Jr. and Whit Merrifield are the top end targets and we’ll see what lineup the Tigers use with Javier Baez struggling with a thumb injury. If you don’t go Vlad at first base, Spencer Torkleson is my main player for Detroit as he murdered a baseball last night and is getting comfortable.
Ace Tier (Main)
Justin Verlander ($9,700 DK/$10,500)
I was very hesitant with Verlander in his first start for quite a fe reasons but he came out of that start looking like…well, mostly Justin Verlander that we’ve known for so long. The K rate was 35% but that doesn’t mean everything was great. He only generated a swinging-strike rate of 8.8% and his fly-ball rate was over 44% with a 20% barrel rate. He did get a whiff rate of at least 24% on all three of his pitches and he deployed the slider against righties and the curve against lefties. Seattle’s new-look offense is not clicking yet as they sit in the bottom 10 in all offensive categories that we utilize (with the exception of wRC+, where they rank 16th) and they’re whiffing 25% of the time. Verlander should face at least 3-4 lefties and he did have most of his strikeouts against them at a 45.5% rate in the first start. I’m not totally in love with the profile but the matchup is solid and it’s not like he pitched horribly.
Julio Urais ($9,900 DK/$9,800 FD)
The box scores looks bad for Urias but that tends to happen often in Coors Field so I give it very little weight. The concerning issue was his four-seam was down a lot by almost three mph and it’s not a big surprise it had a 0% whiff rate while it got smacked for a .489 wOBA. His curve had a 30% whiff rate but gave up a home run and Urias navigated those issues with a 46.2% ground ball rate. Cincinnati is mostly average against lefties so far this year with a 19.1% K rate but they are also 17th against the fastball so far and dead last against the curve. Last season saw Urias whiff 76 hitters with that curve and it’s a strong bounce-back spot, even without much of a discount.
Honorable Mention – I’m not sure I can stomach pitching Steven Matz at his salary, but man the Brewers offense has been dreadful so far. They are in the bottom 10 in about any facet you can find but the salary is really asking a lot for Matz and there’s a large path to not hitting value.
We don’t really have tiers after the top two players and it might be a night were we need to comb for some cheaper hitters instead. Let’s give a quick rundown on some of the options that have a path to success, but a large path to failure.
Noah Syndergaard – Another 15 DK points wouldn’t kill you, but he struck out just one hitter and had a 5.16 xFIP with a 75% ground ball rate. Perhaps he can get through the Texas lineup with that, but I don’t love the idea of trying it. He did at least mostly shelf his four-seam with just 15 thrown (the least of any pitch) because it had a .406 wOBA.
Hunter Greene – I’m as excited as anyone outside of Cincy for this kid, but he had a 6.62 FIP and two homer runs in the first start. While the velocity is eye-popping on the four-seam at 99.7 mph, it doesn’t matter if you’re throwing it over 60% of the time because MLB-level hitters will catch up (both homers came off the fastball). His swinging-strike rate was 14.1% and he got a whiff ate of 45.5% so there is so much talent here. It’s just the Dodgers aren’t a friendly matchup by any means and the slider/change combo has to be a bigger weapon as he goes.
The last pitcher I can get after is Jameson Taillon and he walked through the Toronto matchup mostly in good shape. His four-seam/slider combo both had a whiff rate over 40% and even though the slider gave up a home run, Taillon only gave up four other hits. The 2.39 xFIP was strong, as was the 16.7% swinging-strike rate and 31.9% CSW. Lastly, the Orioles are 23rd or worse in OPS, OBP, wOBA, and wRC+ so Taillon could be popular.
Stacks
Mark Leiter Jr. is a righty pitcher that has not been in the majors since 2018, he’s 31 years old, and he throws right-handed. The main Rockies (Kris Bryant, C.J. Cron, Connor Joe) are no more expensive than $4,000. I don’t even know how to explain that and even though we prefer these guys against lefties, the salaries are ridiculous. We can also just flip to the other side and attack Antonio Senzatela from the Rockies, with lefties being a main focus. He’s allowed a wOBA of .335 and an xFIP over 4.50 to the left side and we can use Ian Happ & Jonathan Villar while we don’t need to shy away from righties like Seiya Suzuki, Willson Contreras, and Frank Swhwindel. Both offenses are far too cheap and we’ll only need a punt or two to play them with the higher end pitching.
Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 4/16 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
