Adam Strangis MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 4/15
We have a larger 11-game slate tonight which is nice to have just one condensed slate. What isn’t nice is some of the pitching options because they are very questionable, especially in the mid-range. The top-end at least does offer us a three-headed monster in the ace department and at least one site has their act to gather with a prized prospect at the bottom end of the salary grid. Let’s get to work in the MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 4/15 and figure out which pitchers we need to target for green screens!
Ace Tier
Freddy Peralta ($10,000 DK/$9,900 FD)
It was a rough first turn through the rotation for the Brewers staff in Chicago but one start does not dissuade me from a full season of evidence. Additionally, Peralta did show some strong aspects even through a bit of a slog in that he still had a 12.5% swinging-strike rate and his 4.09 xFIP was a lot better than the 6.75 ERA he posted. His slider was what really gave Peralta some fits in the last start with only an 11.1% whiff rate and a .724 wOBA compared to a 43.1% whiff rate in 2021, his best pitch in that regard. Peralta also backed off of it and threw it just 18% compared to 26% in 2021 and the slider gave up the 3-run home run that really doomed the start.
It also doesn’t hurt Peralta that the Cardinals are righty-heavy and the K rate for Peralta last season against righties was over 38%. It does look like St. Louis will remain a tough team to strike out as they lead the league in K rate against righty pitching at 15.2% but Peralta can be overpowering when things go right. The lefties the Cardinals do have will see the changeup as the off-speed pitch and that got three strikeouts in the first start while generating a 30.7% whiff rate last year. I’m still buying into Peralta being an ace-level pitcher and having some serious strikeout upside.
Dylan Cease ($10,200 DK/$9,700 FD)
This is a very risk/reward spot for Cease because while he does possess great strikeout stuff, Tampa is in the top six in average, OBP, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ so far against righty pitching. That’s in line with what they produced last season so it makes sense and this is a strong lineup but they whiffed 24.4% last year and 23.2% so far this year against righty pitching. In his first start, he got a 13.9% swinging-strike rate and a 30.4% CSW, both very close to the 2021 season. Cease leans on the four-seam/slider mix and it was close to 90% of his pitches in the first game compared to 78% last year. Against a left-heavy lineup like the Rays, the curveball should come into play more as well because he threw 285 to lefties last year with 303 sliders and 676 four-seams. The curve generated the best wOBA out of every pitch last season at .229 and the whiff rate was 40.5%. Between the slider and curve, he got 140 of his 226 strikeouts and those pitches are the keys to his success. I would rather not play him in cash with to pitfalls he faces, but there’s no denying that he can post 25+ DK points across six great innings. As it was, he did that last start with just 79 pitches so we should be looking at 90 at least tonight.
Carlos Rodon ($9,800 DK/$10,100 FD)
This is where it can get tough to figure out which is more important because last year, the Guardians were no higher than 15th in wOBA, wRC+, OPS, or OBP (they were top 10 in ISO). This year they’ve been wrecking lefties in just 49 plate appearances and are top seven across the board. Still, Rodon dominated his first start of the year, and Marlins or not, the 23.6% swinging-strike rate and 38.2% CSW were very impressive. He threw almost exclusively four-seams and sliders and all three of his pitches had a whiff rate over 43%. What was very notable is even though he’s coming off some injuries at the end of last year, his velocity was up in a big way at 97.4 mph for his average four-seam compared to 95.4 mph last year. It also had about 100 extra rpm to it so this new-look four-seam would be a serious weapon if it’s here to stay. It does have to be pointed out that the Guardians are the current best team against the fastball in the league but Rodon was excellent last year and we chase strikeouts above all else. I’d rank the top three as Peralta, Rodon, and then Cease but they all appear to have strong paths to a great start and there are concerns for each of them.
Mid-Range
German Marquez ($7,900 DK/$8,200 FD)
The mid-range is totally barren tonight from reliable options, but there are some interesting chances to take. Marquez was lights out against the Dodgers in the first start, in Coors Field and that will always be impressive. I’ve always been a sucker for Marquez and he produced a 2.82 xFIP, 57.9% ground ball rate, and a 31.1% CSW. Granted, the swinging-strike rate was lower at 9.5% but this is the Dodgers lineup, a team that is striking out just 21% of the time against righties so far. What was notable from this first start is even though the four-seam did not generate a single whiff, his slider, curve, and change all had a whiff rate of 40% and the slider/change mix went for over 50%. Out of 62 pitches from that mix, Marquez did not give up a single hit and it’s likely a good time to remember that Marquez pitched better at Coors last year with a 3.67 ERA, 3.58 xFIP, and a wOBA under .285 against each side of the plate. The K rate was in line at about 23% as it was for him throughout the year and his ground ball rate at home was 57.7% compared to 43.9% on the road. It may never be comfortable to use Coors pitching, but Marquez lines up pretty well here against a shaky Cubs lineup.
Jordan Montgomery ($8,800 DK/$8,400 FD)
Montgomery feels a little pricey and he’s tough to gauge after one start because he took a liner off the leg early and it seemed to shake him up a little bit. He still managed to get a 12.1% swinging-strike rate in his innings and the Baltimore Orioles were quietly good against lefties last year. That trend has not continued this season as they have the second-most plate appearances so far but a massive 35.2% K rate, the third-highest in the majors. They are also 24th or worse in wOBA, wRC+, OPS, and they only get up to 20th in OBP. Perhaps they turn these trends around but the K rate is really calling my name and even against Boston, Montgomery generated a whiff rate of 33% on his changeup and 50% on his curveball. Righties had a .309 wOBA against him last year but the K rate jumped up over 25% and the BABIP didn’t do him many favors against that side of the plate at .318. If the Orioles continue to whiff at this rate, they’re going to be a target with a lot of lefties and Montgomery has a K rate over 24% in the past two seasons.
Honorable Mention – Brad Keller had a really strong start but I can’t put my finger on any strong improvement that makes me think it’s the most sustainable. Last year, both sides of the plate had a wOBA over .355 and he has a 500 inning sample size with a 4.55 xFIP. He’s an average guy that can dazzle and he can get hammered, so maybe he’s popular but getting him right is a trick.
Punt Tier
Kyle Wright ($6,700 DK/$8,000 FD)
It’s a decent day to take some shots and while I’m not ready to fall head over heels in love with one start from Wright, he did shove a few days ago. He’s been a highly-regarded prospect for a while and he also only has 76 total innings in the majors, a very small sample. Yes, the ERA is over 6.00 and the xFIP is 5.51 but that’s not the kind of stuff he displayed in start one this year. Wright came away with a 2.96 xFIP, a 15.5% swinging-strike rate, and a 35.5% CSW against the Cincinnati Reds and he is still only 26 years old. The sinker/curve mix was about 80% of what he threw and the curve was working in a big way with four strikeouts and a 44% whiff rate. His Change and slider were only thrown a combined 12 times but his five sliders all got a whiff. The curve being so prominent was a significant change to the mix since he only threw it 18% last year in his very limited action and the sinker gained one mph, up to 94.2. This is still a very dangerous play because it’s in the face of the sample we have from Wright, but the price is low enough to give him a shot. Before last night, the Padres were in the bottom half of the league in wRC+, wOBA, ISO (dead last), and OPS, and they were whiffing almost 25% of the time. I think we could do worse as far as taking chances in the punt range.
MacKenzie Gore ($5,000 DK)
It feels like Gore has been a prospect for the Padres for eight years but he just turned 23 and was drafted in 2017. He’s got a four-seam that runs between 95-97 and these sliders will play at any level, including the majors. Walks have been an issue for him in the past and in his 34 IP last year, the walk rate was over 12% at every stop but the strikeouts mostly followed. Debuts can be tough to figure out but the tools are there for him to be dominant and he’s very cheap on DK. Most SP2’s at $5,000 don’t have the chance to whiff 4-6 hitters like Gore does, even though it’s not an easy spot. Atlanta is in the top 10 in OBP, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ so the path for failure is there. However, when pitchers roll through and have this level of talent and threw 63 pitches in his last start, it’s worth gambling on. There are 25 hitters more expensive than he is and this is not the best pitching slate we’ve ever seen.
Pitchers To Attack
I haven’t really jumped on board with the Yankees so far this season but tonight certainly feels like the first opportunity to do so. Jordan Lyles is not a quality major league arm at this juncture in his career and his first start produced a swinging-strike rate of 7.2% along with a 5.20 xFIP and his HR/9 has been at least 1.60 since 2019. His four-seam fastball sat at 91.9 mph in the first start and allowed a .627 wOBA and at this stage of the game, 92 mph for a fastball is about a batting practice fastball. He’s also allowing at least a .200 ISO to each side of the plate and the main targets all crush righty fastballs in Josh Donaldson, Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, Giancarlo Stanton, and Joey Gallo. All of those hitters have ISO’s over .255 and wOBA’s over .330 against righty fastballs and Lyles allows a .316 ISO on that pitch. Playing the Bash Brothers of Judge and Stanton will be a high priority for me and Stanton has dipped under $5,000 on DK. This is an affordable stack that I will have plenty of exposure to.
A team that fits really nicely with Yankees variations is the Houston Astros and they appear to be in a great spot. Marco Gonzales got smashed in his first start for the Mariners and there was nothing cheap about a 24.52 FIP after that game. He had more walks than strikeouts, allowed four barrels, and the swinging-strike rate was under 5%. Gonzales has always been a low swinging-strike pitcher with fly-ball tendencies and when pitchers of that sort go wrong, they go very wrong. The last 416 plate appearances by righty hitters have resulted in a .348 wOBA, .274 ISO, and a 50% fly-ball rate and Gonzales throws his sinker 44% of the time. Alex Bregman stands out against that pitch with a .206 ISO and a 45% hard-hit rate while Jose Altuve and Yuli Gurriel join him with an average distance of over 300 feet. Jose Siri and Jeremy Pena have blistered lefties so far, although it’s just a handful of at-bats so that may not stand up. However, Gonzales is always a target, and Pena and Siri are very cheap to compliment the bigger bats in the lineup tonight.
Honorable Mention
Dodgers – Muncy (love him tonight), Lux, Bellinger, Freeman
Rangers/Angels – Semien, Solak, Garcia, Seager, Garver/Trout, Rendon, Stassi, Adell
Brewers – Lefties vs. Mikolas
Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 4/15 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
