Adam Strangis MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 4/14
Thursday is typically a slower day in MLB and today is no exception with only a six-game main slate, and that’s where the focus will be. We have some strong options on the mound and one aspect that always sticks out is this is a Coors slate and the hitters are very underpriced. We’ll be talking about that facet of the slate and who we’re pitching in the MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 4/14 so let’s get right to work!
Ace Tier
Shohei Ohtani ($7,900 DK/$10,800 FD)
At least one site priced him correctly because DK just cannot figure out how to price Ohtani as a pitcher. He’s gotten off to a miserable start at the plate but he was fantastic in his first start of the year with nine strikeouts against the Astros in just 80 pitches. Ohtani should have more rope in this outing and the fact that he can whiff nine Astros reminds us how incredible he is as a pitcher. That lineup doesn’t whiff too often (17.9% this year) and even though Texas is only at 16.3% against righties so far, I simply don’t care that much. He only went 4.2 innings but Ohtani walked away with a 0.74 xFIP, 38.8% CSW, and a 15% swinging-strike rate. The four-seam was cooking at a 97.8 MPH average and he threw his slider 22 times for a 77.8% whiff rate. He didn’t even really throw the splitter that much and that was the K pitch last year, which should terrify every hitter.
The largest concern is Ohtani has had some issues against lefties and that’s going to be the majority of the Texas lineup in all likelihood. Ohtani has always had a weird thing with lefties because he’s worse against them but the xFIP is still under 3.80 and the K rate is 25.5%. What doesn’t make much sense is he’s used the splitter the most against lefties. It was the secondary pitch to that side of the plate and it got a 48.5% whiff rate. Perhaps it was just pitch sequencing, perhaps it was mostly luck involved but a pitch that had a .113 wOBA has to be a weapon against that side of the plate. If anything, maybe it’s too many four-seams to lefties because he threw 508 last yea against 237 splitters. Either way, Ohtani is a strikeout artist and horrifically priced on DK again.
Charlie Morton ($9,300 DK/$9,000 FD)
On DK, this is where things will get interesting. Morton is a hair price for his normal upside as far as strikeouts but for this slate, the salary is still acceptable. He’s quite affordable on FD and he’s becoming a timeless veteran if he keeps this up. Morton is 38 but you couldn’t tell by his first start of the year, Morton only threw 78 pitches so we don’t really have to worry about the count here and he whiffed five hitters with just a 7.7% swinging-strike rate. At least compared to last season, his pitch mix was a good bit different because he threw the fastball 46% of the time (36% in 2021) and the curve was 39.7% (36.7% in 2021). His whiff rate on the curve wasn’t good in the first start at just 16.7% but that is almost encouraging to me. When Morton can’t get the curve working, he typically can struggle but he still pitched well. When the curve is getting more swings and misses, the results can be reasonably expected to get better.
The Padres could throw as many as five lefties out there tonight but based on his 2021 season, that could be a bonus for Morton. He held the left side to a .255 wOBA, 0.94 WHIP, and maybe most importantly, a 32.4% K rate. When he gets to this salary, you need some strikeout upside because if he just goes for 3-4, it’s not going to help you all that much. The Padres offense is no pushover but they are whiffing over 24% of the time against righties and the choice between Morton and our next pitcher is not an easy one.
Walker Buehler ($9,700 DK/$10,500 FD)
For those of you new to MLB, Buehler is one of those guys that is a huge pain for me personally. I feel like I never get him right and as much as I try to just let the stats and metrics do their job…there is some bias here in that I usually take my chances and don’t play Buehler. I don’t believe there’s an awful lot to take from his first start since it was in Coors and he whiffed five hitters in five innings, threw 78 pitches, and allowed two earned runs. Normally I’d raise my eyebrows at the 9% swinging-strike rate but in truth, Buehler has never been above 12.3% for any season and that’s just not exactly his game. The CSW is still good at over 29.5% for the career but he’s not a swing-and-miss guy in the same way some other aces are. Personally, I feel like that leads to some games where he bites you but again…bias duly noted.
The Reds offense has not gotten going yet, sitting 28th in average, OBP, and ISO while being dead last in wOBA, wRC+, and OPS against righty pitching so far. That’s also coming with a 30.2% K rate and while 116 plate appearances aren’t going to tell the story of the 2022 season, Buehler is not exactly a slump-busting pitcher. One facet that really does stand out from one start was Buehler dropped his four-seam from 44% last year to just 25.6% and it was getting smoked in the first start. He only threw it 20 times but it allowed three hits, a double, and had a .746 wOBA allowed without a swing-and-miss compared to a 20.3% whiff rate in 2021. I’m mostly chalking that up to Coors and based on 2022 stats, he has a very strong matchup to flash some upside. We should get at least 90 pitches tonight but it is the Dodgers so kid’s gloves are always in play (not even a shot at taking out Kershaw, that’s just sometimes a thing with them).
Honorable Mention – On DK, I believe the chalk will be concentrated on Ohtani and one of Morton or Buehler but on FD, there are two additional games. Sandy Alcantara of the Marlins faces Kyle Gibson of the Phillies and while both are options in the ace tier price-wise, I do think these three are better choices. I can’t buy Gibson whiffing 10 hitters again and Alcantara (while awesome) arguably has the toughest matchup against Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and the rest of Philly’s lineup.
Mid-Range
Kevin Gausman ($8,500 DK/$9,600 FD)
Results from a one-game sample in baseball can really not be indicative of how a player performed that day. Some days hitters will hit three balls at 100+ mph exit velocity and not have a hit. On other days a pitcher can produce a 20% swinging-strike rate and an xFIP of 2.46 but give up a .471 BABIP and surrender eight hits for three earned runs. That’s what happened to Gausman against Texas, and it seems like some crazy bad luck. He didn’t walk a hitter, he whiffed five on 80 pitchers, and his four-seam was an issue to lefties since he allowed a .419 wOBA (and a .500 BABIP). I will grant the average exit velocity allowed was a bit high but he struck out four of the seven righties he faced and the Yankees should throw plenty of righties out there. The everyday lineup for New York only has three lefties and Gausman was not a big splits pitcher last year, either.
He threw his splitter, slider, and change for about 58% of his pitches last time and each of those three had a whiff rate of at least 50% and it looks overwhelmingly like it was just a tough game for the four-seam fastball. That did allow a .316 wOBA last year but his splitter made it work with a .175 wOBA and a 45.9% whiff rate. Gausman is not safe (still facing a powerful Yankee lineup) but this likely is a strong GPP play. The Yanks are whiffing around 24% of the time and the field is going to be focused on pitchers more or less expensive. Gausman will be in the middle ground, generating swings and misses with the splitter.
Joe Musgrove ($7,600 DK)
I believe the FD price is too high for my tastes because this is not a perfect spot. Musgrove got a great early test as far as his weakness in the splits because lefties can be an issue. Well, Arizona loaded up with LHH and Musgrove actually only threw 10 pitches to righties in the first start. It helps explain why his cutter was used so much, and I despise that pitch from him. The cutter allowed a .367 wOBA and his four-seam allowed a .407 wOBA in 2021, and they picked up where they left off. The wOBA was over .800 for the cutter (it allowed a double and a homer) and the four-seam was over .400. He’s not going to face many lefties against Atlanta, but as a team, there are only two hitters with ISO’s under .248 against righty pitchers. Matt Olson smacks cutters (love him as a one-off, if nothing else) and the start may be dictated by the slider.
That was easily his primary pitch to the right side (eight of the 10 pitches he threw to righties was the slider) and it got a 55.6% whiff rate (36.6% in 2021) with wOBA’s under .230. Musgrove held righties to a .252 wOBA last year with a K rate over 28% but Atlanta is still top 12 in most of our offensive categories. Lineup construction is always important for him, but I can’t cast him aside because if he gets a bunch of righties, things could still go very right at this salary.
Punt Tier
We did this trick last year, and this will be the first appearance of it this year – The Starting Rotation Special. I’m not telling you who it is until after we lay out some stats because the name might be a little vomit-inducing, for one reason or another. Please keep in mind that the Specials are not safe plays and have a wide path to failure, but there are reasons to ride the lightning. This pitcher only has 62 innings in the majors the track record is far from something we can fall back on. What we do know is in those innings, he’s displayed a K rate of 24.1% and that matches his last two stops in the minors of 24.7% and 26.4%. Knowing there is some strikeout potential is fun, but he brings some groundball ability as well with a 50.9% career rate and it jumped up to 58.3% in the first start this year. He whiffed five hitters in his first game on 77 pitches and generated seven ground balls and had a negative launch angle on his four-seam/slider mix (almost 80% of his pitches). Now, I don’t love that he had a swinging-strike rate under 6% in the first start but last year it was at 11.2%, which is plenty for the salary.
I will be taking shots on DK with Justin Steele in Coors Field, which may seem counter-productive. Colorado did mash lefties at home (because…duh) but they also had a ground ball rate of 46.7%, the third-highest in the majors. There is a trend that the first game in Coors Field goes under a lot, and last year the average number of runs for the first game was 9.9. In all other games, it jumped to 11.5 and that’s a significant gap, even by my 1:30 a.m. math. It was also wider in the front half of the season at 7.4 to 10.5, likely accounting for some weather. This game is going to be chalky as all get out, and if Steele can help keep the first game trend going, he could derail the slate for a lot of folks. The current total is 11.5 runs and the first game went under that nine of 13 times last year.
Pitchers To Attack
Jared does a great job covering some of the Coors Field options in his article today and quite simply, that game is going to be wildly popular. Instead of going over the cash offenses, let’s talk about some less popular options and we’re back on the Blue Jays once again. Luis Severino is on the mound for the Yankees tonight and he’s thrown exactly 24 innings since the start of 2019.He used the fastball over 50% of the time last start and it allowed over a .500 wOBA with a whiff rate of just 5%, not great ratios for facing Toronto. While Severino has been better against righties though his career, the Jays lineup hammers fastballs from the right side as George Springer, Vlad, Alejandro Kirk and Matt Chapman all have ISO’s over .220 against the fastball. Add in the fact that the Jays are considerably cheaper than they should be and this is a strong stack, despite some quiet games in New York.
The next spot that makes far too much sense is Los Angeles, as they face lefty Reiver Sanmartin as he’ll be the long deliver. Luis Cessa will be the opener but Sanmartin is a very inexperienced pitcher with just 14 innings at the major league level. He’s turned to a four-seam/changeup mix for the majority of his pitches and Trea Turner, Chris Taylor, Mookie Betts, and Justin Turner are all top targets here. They all had wOBA’s over .345 and ISO’s over .230 last year, and Turner especially hammers changeups with an ISO over .300 against that pitch. I really like the idea of playing Max Muncy if he’s in the lineup because he hammered LvL matchups last year with a .291 ISO, .406 wOBA, and a K rate under 17% with an ISO over .220 against both of the main pitches for Sanmartin.
Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 4/14 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
