Adam Strangis MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 4/13
We get a daylight main slate today with lock coming before 12:30 p.m although the sites are different as DraftKings has seven games and FanDuel has nine. There are some differences that will get pointed out but for the most part, the slates are the same and can be broken down in the same fashion. Let’s dig in to see what spots we like and keep the momentum going in the MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 4/13 to find more green!
Ace Tier
Max Scherzer ($10,100 DK/$11,000 FD)
He’s certainly not cheap but Mad Max is among the best arms on the slate and the matchup is tough, but Philly is no higher than 10th in any of the offensive categories we focus on and they have a 24.4% K rate on the early part of the year. Scherzer ended up throwing 80 pitches so over 90 should be near a lock and in the first start, Scherzer had a 3.04 xFIP despite having just an 8.8% swinging-strike rate. He hasn’t been below double-digits since 2011 so I’m not willing to say there’s a reason for concern at this point although it’s at least worth noting that his four-seam velocity was down just a tick. Scherzer did throw it under 40% in the first start but he also did not generate a swing and miss with the four-seam so that’s not a trend we’d be hoping continues. The good news is he should face six righties in the lineup and his slider was as good as ever. He threw it 13 times in the first start (all against RHH) and he got three strikeouts with a 57.1% whiff rate. Of course, this is one start we’re talking about and the hamstring at least played some role but the seven righties he faced had no chance with a .129 wOBA and a 0.28 xFIP. Considering he was slightly worse to lefties last year, I think there’s no real reason to plant any red flags on Scherzer at this point. We’ll chalk p the four-seam results to variance and potentially slightly dealing with the hammy, but there is not much to say Scherzer shouldn’t be ready to roll here.
The second player in this tier depends on the site. Over on FD, you can pitch Framber Valdez, and he would be my choice if you have that available. Valdez used his sinker 52% of the Tim win the first start against the Angels and it didn’t do much as far as strikeouts go, but that’s where the curve and change entered the fray. Those two pitches were about 44% of his makeup and they both had at least a 40% whiff rate and wOBA’s under .210. Additionally, it’s a little unfair to pin this down so early but Arizona is 29th or 30th in OBP, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ so far and their 35 PA against lefties is 17th in the league. Arizona was not good last year either against lefties so this would be a trend that continues, meaning I put a little more stock into it.
You can make the case for Aaron Nola, but the guy absolutely drives me bonkers. There’s no other way to say and even on opening day, he was on cruise control with seven strikeouts but winds up getting tagged with four runs because he couldn’t quite finish things off. He was another player that had some trouble generating any whiffs with his four-seam at 14.3% (down about 8% from 2021) but his curve was working with a 43.8% whiff rate and four of his seven strikeouts. The Mets were 28th against that pitch last season but they were very injured all year and they’ve started out third, even though that’s always with a grain of salt. Additionally, the Mets have come out of the gates in the top four in wOBA, average, wRC+, OPS, and OBP so that could wind up being an issue. In this tier, I’m playing Scherzer with Valdez as the pivot on FD and would likely pass on Nola.
Honorable Mention – The Braves are starting Max Fried but just like Opening Day, I’m not enamored with his salary at $9,500. I think over the long haul this year Washington will be sold against lefty pitching. Even though Fried came out of the first start with a 2.40 FIP and 3.63 xFIP, his K rate hasn’t been over 24% since 2019. I would rather play the next pitcher on the list given the salaries involved.
Mid-Tier
Clayton Kershaw ($9,200 DK/$9,100 FD)
I bring up a potential Scherzer/Nola because the pitching is not great after the top end today. We do get the season debut of Kershaw, who pitched five innings and 75 pitches in a simulated game his last time pitching so we should expect around 80 pitches today. Kershaw only pitched 121.2 innings last year but the 2.87 xFIP was impressive, as was the 29.5% K rate, the 48.5% ground ball rate, and the massive 16.7% swinging-strike rate fit in with the 32.7% CSW. There was some suspicion that he was using plenty of sticky stuff last year but we don’t have the largest sample size and in fairness to the pitchers, changing the rules in the middle of the season was unfair. Kershaw has now had a full offseason to tinker and until we’re faced with the alternative, I’ll treat him as a great, if aging, pitcher.
Additionally, Kershaw does need the fastball to be effective but his heavy lifting is done with the slider, which racked up 108 of 144 strikeouts last year. It only allowed a .253 wOBA and boasted a 44% whiff rate despite being the primary pitch at 47.6%. Minnesota was 22nd in wOBA, OPS, 25th in OBP, and 15th in ISO against lefties last year and they also backed that up by ranking 21st against the slider. This is overall a reasonably strong spot for Kershaw and if he can get through Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, and Jorge Polanco, the Twins lineup doesn’t look like the scariest group on the planet.
Adam Wainwright ($8,700 DK/$8,700 FD)
My initial impression is this is a good time to let Waino pass without playing him at the salary, but let’s check things out. The curve can still be a weapon and it grabbed two of the six strikeouts he recorded in the first game. His xFIP was 1.81 through those six innings and he was in full control basically the whole way through his 81 pitches. He should be closer to 95 this time if things are going right and he got a 53% ground ball rate, a hallmark of his past few years on the mound. There is some slight concern that the swinging-strike rate was only 4.9% but even last year, it didn’t clear 9% and his stuff usually is more tricky than it is overpowering.
The Royals lineup is going to be split 5/4 L/R if it’s the everyday lineup so that doesn’t give much of a lean either way for Wainwright. The largest fear is you need some strikeouts at this salary. Ask Luis Garcia from last night and the Royals are still one of the hardest teams to strike out so far at 15.4%. That’s in line with 2021 when they whiffed only 21.6%, the fourth-lowest mark in the league. It helps a little bit that KC was 29th against the curve and that led the strike charge for Wainwright last year with 72 but the path to success at this salary is still going to be pretty narrow.
Nathan Eovaldi ($8,200 DK/$8,500 FD)
When you walk through a start in Yankee Stadium and go five innings, whiff seven, and only give up three runs, that’s not terrible and Eovaldi is a strong pitcher for the most part. He generated a massive 64.3% ground ball rate and every fly ball left the yard, which really speaks to bad luck and his 2.07 xFIP makes a lot of sense. The one home run he surrendered to Giancarlo Stanton was a home run in New York and it would not have been a bomb in any other park. Eovaldi was wildly impressive for his swing-and-miss stuff with a 22.4% rate in the first game and his splitter was evil. He did only throw it 14 times (18.4%) but it got three strikeouts with a 70% whiff rate. The four-seam was up almost 1.5 MPH (which helps the splitter look even better) and that got a 35.7% whiff ate as well. So far this season, Detroit is striking out over 25% of the time and that may look familiar because they whiffed over 27% of the time last year. The reinforcements have made a mixed bag effect with a decent ISO (14th) but they are still 19th or worse in wRC+, OPS, and average. Lastly, Detroit is only 22nd against the fastball and that’s the main pitch for Eovaldi even though it was just 31.6%. I wonder if he gets lost in the shuffle here with some bigger names but Eovaldi can match the outcomes of just about anyone on the slate.
Punt Play
Kyle Hendricks ($6,600 DK/$8,100 FD)
He feels a little expensive on FD but on DK, I’m willing to be that the Scherzer/Hendricks pairing is the cash pair and the most popular. It leaves plenty of room for bats and Hendricks is coming off a strong start against the Brewers with seven strikeouts. That’s kind of the rub for Hendricks because that’s not something to lean on. His career K rate is 20.2% compared to 29.2% in game one, so to say it’s an aberration seems pretty fair. The 20.5% swinging-strike rate is barely more than his last two seasons’ worth combined and the CSW was over 37%. The easiest way to explain the jump was Hendricks flipped his primary pitch to the changeup, throwing it 39.8% of the time compared to 27.8% in the 2021 season. The change generated a 59.1% whiff rate and the change in approach could help at least in the short term.
The other positive aspect is the Pittsburgh offense has been very poor so far and was one Bryan Reynolds home run away from getting shut out yesterday. They are 21st in OBP, 27th in OPS, 30th in ISO, 28th in wOBA, and 26th in wRC+. It’s one thing to say it’s early (it is) but we have no reason to think Pittsburgh gets any better this year until O’Neil Cruz comes up from AAA at the earliest. The one slight worry with Hendricks outside of just the style of pitcher that he is could be he’s always been worse to lefties with a .303 wOBA, 4.11 xFIP, and a 1.20 WHIP. It’s just questionable if the Pirates are the ones to get to him and I’m fine eating this in cash, though I may try to find a pivot in GPP. I am intrigued but the changeup-heavy approach though.
Zach Thompson ($5,200 DK)
I’m only doing this in 3-max to get different on DK-Only but I will confess to being interested in Thompson. He only pitched 75 innings last year and he’s older for a player with this little experience under his belt at 28-years old. His xFIP was 4.65, the K rate was 21%, and the fly-ball rate was over 40%. It’s going to be important as far as his career splits what kind of lineup the Cubs throw out there because he’s held righties to a .245 wOBA, 22.7% K rate, 0.98 WHIP, and a 4.14 xFIP. The left side has been much worse but what really still has my attention is he still had an 11.7% swinging-strike rate and his entire pitch mix had a whiff rate of at least 21%. There is something there that can be used for fantasy at this salary and if everyone goes to Hendricks, Thompson could be interesting. He did whiff 12 in 13 IPs in the spring and his cutter is a decent-looking pitch, tied with his curveball last year with 20 strikeouts each. The Cubs started off well but really struggled yesterday so just understand this is a pure punt and could go off the rails in a hurry.
Honorable Mention – The Guardians have smacked around the little bit of lefty pitching they’ve seen so far so while Nick Lodolo is a very talented pitcher, I’m not as sold as I was with Matt Brash yesterday. Lodolo has a strong fastball/slider/changeup mix but Cleveland is a team that is second in OBP, wOBA, and wRC+ as well. It’s a tougher assignment overall so I think I’m mostly out, despite his K rate over 35% in AA and AAA last season.
Pitchers To Attack
It’s almost impossible to not want to go back to the Braves against Josiah Gray, who has a career of 5.67 ERA, 4.95 xFIP, 2.41 HR/9, and both sides of the plate have a wOBA over .350. His fastball is used at least 45% against both sides of the plate and Eddie Rosario, Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, Adam Duvall, Dansby Swanson, and Alex Dickerson have wOBA’s over .345 and ISO’s over .245 against righty fastballs. Gray’s also has given up a .320 ISO and an average distance of 329 feet. They could be picking on the bullpen again early in this game, just like last night. Everyone was also over a .320 wOBA and .190 ISO against righty pitching so this is among the best spots on the slate.
Additionally, the Guardians are on my list as well with Jose Ramirez, Franmil Reyes, Amed Rosario, and Oscar Mercado as the main points with a wOBA over .358 and ISO’s of at least .140. The pitch mix is a little unknown but these guys have been hitting well and even though Reyes has not joined the club, it’s only a matter of time until he gets ahold of one.
Honorable Mention
Dodgers – Turner (both), Betts, Freeman, Lux, Muncy
Reds – Votto, India, Naquin, Fraley
Red Sox – Martinez, Bogaerts, Arroyo, Malbec, Hernandez
Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 4/13 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
