Adam Strangis MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 4/12
For the first time all season, we don’t have any slates outside of the main slate that are over three games, so the focus is going to be on the nine-game slate tonight. We have some solid pitching options today, although they could be a lot worse than most of yesterday’s choices. We’ll also have an addition at the end of the article for the first time so let’s dig into the MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 4/12 to find green screens!
Ace Tier
Yu Darvish ($10,100 DK/$9,700 FD)
I can sense I might be under the field on Darvish already, although he did throw 92 pitches in his first start. That is an advantage over plenty of other pitchers but Darvish is coming off an uneven year last year and he didn’t exactly erase a lot of fears in his first turn this year. His xFIP from that start was over 6.00, the walks outnumbered the strikeouts, and the hard-hit rate was 40%. He only generated a 10.9% swinging-strike rate which if it held (I know, one start), would be the lowest since 2014. Knowing that Darvish was worse against lefties last year doesn’t help in the matchup either because the Giants could put up five lefties in their lineup. Darvish gave up a .304 wOBA against the left side last year and it’s also worth at least pointing out that on the road in 65 IP, he had a 5.54 ERA, 4.94 FIP, and a .339 wOBA. Granted, San Francisco isn’t a hitter’s haven but these are all still concerning points and paths to failure at the salary.
It wasn’t all bad for Darvish in the first start because his slider generated a 40% whiff rate and his splitter was at 50%, although he only threw the splitter six times. That was the pitch that got two of his strikeouts and he threw 16 of those pitches combined to the left side. That does help against a lineup that should have plenty of lefties and the Giants have started in the bottom 10 in OPS, wOBA, wRC+, and average. Darvish feels like a pitcher that I’m going to struggle with a little bit this season, but I’m not super happy to pay this price even though he’d have an inside track to throw 100 pitches if things are going alright.
Luis Garcia ($9,400 DK/$8,600 FD)
Garcia pitched 155.1 innings last season and flashed some serious potential with a K rate over 26% and an xFIP under 4.00 along with a barrel rate of 7.3%. With some of the movement on his pitches, that isn’t a surprise and his cutter was ridiculous last year. He only threw it 22.6% of the time last year but it generated a 42% whiff rate and only allowed a .221 wOBA and .175 average. If that wasn’t enough, his slider was almost identical in whiff rate and was even better in wOBA at .154 and average at .133. His CSW was 29.7% and the swinging-strike rate was 13.4%, both strong numbers for his first full season and there’s reason to think he could just naturally grow as a pitcher at a young age.
Now, that doesn’t mean there aren’t some hangups here. As great as his slider was last year, he threw all of 22 against lefty hitters. He was extremely heavy with his fastball to the left side and that was his wort pitch with a .379 wOBA and only a 19.1% whiff rate. That feeds into why lefties got him last year for a .353 wOBA, .282 average, 1.61 HR/9, and a 4.09 xFIP. The Astros have the access to the numbers I do and then some so the hope would be making the fastball better and achieving a better mix against the left side. It’s important to note that the D-Backs can throw out eight lefty hitters so there are some concerns here to be sure. The hope would be that Arizona continues to hit the lowest average in the league against righty pitching and Garcia is more talented than the hitters he’s facing.
Mid-Range
Patrick Sandoval ($7,900 DK/$8,400 FD)
We do have nine games but there is not a plethora of pitching. Andrew Heaney was a mess last year, Yusei Kikuchi and Nestor Cortes both face tough tasks, and Eric Lauer is pretty pricey. However, we do have a fair amount of pitchers in the mid-range that have some paths to success and Sandoval checks that box. Something that makes trends from this season easier to buy into is if they match the 2021 season and Miami led the league in strikeout rate against lefties at 27.5%. That was almost two percent higher than the Cubs at second. It is only 37 plate appearances and they did face Carlos Rodon, but the Marlins have a 43.2% K rate early on and that could be something to exploit. Sandoval had a 25.9% K rate through 87 IP last year and an xFIP of 3.79, both strong numbers. The barrel rate was only 6.1% and what was very impressive was the 15.2% swinging-strike rate and the 31% CSW. If he had been able to hold those ratios through the innings to qualify for the end-of-year awards, the SwStr% would have been sixth and the CSW% would have been tied for seventh. While the sample size isn’t the be-all, end-all, it’s hard not to acknowledge what Sandoval was putting up.
Sandoval did allow a .311 wOBA and 4.10 FIP to righties so there could be some slight regression coming his way, but the WHIP was 1.45 with a .308 BABIP and the HR/9 was only 1.06. The biggest shift for Sandoval came in dialing his four-seam way back to just 24.3% and the changeup was his primary pitch was 29.6%. It came with a 51.4% whiff rate, .213 wOBA, and it generated 56 of 94 strikeouts. Miami finished 23rd against the changeup last year and that’s another trend that has continued since they are 26th to start the year. The Marlins may have added Jorge Soler and Avisail Garcia to their lineup but they are not enough to totally change the dynamic, even if they improve it. Sandoval is priced at a point where it’s worth finding out if he can replicate his success in 2021.
Alex Cobb ($7,000 DK/$7,600 FD)
Spring Training is always hard to gauge as far as what is real, why matters, and what can be labeled as who cares. One aspect that always will get my attention is increased velocity, especially from pitchers that go to Drvieline Baseball. They have a lengthy history of increasing velocity for pitchers and the Giants are very hooked into the data-drive approach that the company does. Cobb has been sitting around 95 on his four-seam after it average 92.7 MPH last year and he’s touched 97 multiple times. This is a big deal not only for that pitch itself but how it plays and sets up the splitter. When he was sitting around 92 MPH with the four-seam, that was only about a 4 MPH difference from the splitter. Now it’s a much bigger gap and it makes life harder on the hitter, and the split-finger generated a 35.2% whiff rate last year while these two pitches combined for 88 of 98 strikeouts for Cobb. Even without the added velocity, the swinging-strike rate was still 11.2% and the CSW was 30%.
The splits were pretty even for Cobb last year and both sides whiffed over 23% with an edge against righties, not to mention his FIP and xFIP were under 2.90 to the right side of the plate. San Diego is going to have 4-5 righties and last year, he used the four-seam more to the left side of the plate. If the new velocity carries over, Cobb has a better chance to improve on the 14% whiff rate to the left side of the plate. Now, the Padres have been strong against righties to start the year as they are in the top 12 in wOBA, wRC+, and OBP so this is still a dangerous offense. With Cobb being so cheap, there is still plenty of upside to chase and see how this new pitch plays out because Cobb is a much more exciting pitcher.
Jesus Luzardo ($7,300 DK/$7,100 FD)
This play is going to look even more appealing if Mike Trout is out again tonight (he was scratched last night) and this is a Ghost special tonight. Luzardo was dealt to Miami last year and there’s no getting around his numbers were pretty rough, even when you consider the 4.84 xFIP was lower than the 6.61 ERA he posted over 95.1 IP. The walk rate was 11%, the barrel rate was 10.1%, and the flyball rate was over 40%. So why are we sitting here talking about him? Increased velocity, kids. Not only is Luzardo up around 2-3 MPH across the board on his pitches, but his last spring start also went four innings and he leaned into his curve for a 48% usage rate (41% CSW) and his four-seam averaged 97.3 MPH. It’s great to see the curve be used even more than the 28.6% he did last year because it had a 42.4% whiff rate, 55 strikeouts, and a .260 wOBA. That was despite his sinker/four-seam/changeup getting hammered for wOBA’s over .375, which says a lot about that curve. The Angels were mostly average against lefties last year and are better suited to hit them this year, so Luzardo is the most speculative of the bunch in the mid-range. You’re taking a chance that his spring carries over but the raw talent for Luzardo has always been there. If he’s throwing harder now, it could be what pushes him to get things to click.
Honorable Mention – I don’t think I have to go here, but Tucker Davidson showed at least some interesting metrics in his 20 IP for the Braves last year. The K rate was over 23%, the xFIP was 4.42 against a 3.60 ERA, and the HR/9 was 1.35. However, it is just 20 IP and the barrel rate was 12.3% with a hard-hit rate of over 40%. I feel it makes more sense to chase the upside of other pitchers here.
Punt Tier
Dakota Hudson ($6,300 DK)
I wouldn’t think of touching Hudson on FD since he’s the *checks notes*…..*checks again*….the second-most expensive player on that site? I’m not even in love over on DK because over the past two seasons, Hudson has pitched 47.2 innings with a K rate under 21%, a swinging-strike rate of 6.1%, and a 22.1% CSW. That’s not to say he doesn’t have some talent but this is not the pitcher you want when you’re looking for strikeouts. What Hudson does extremely well is generate ground balls at a career rate of 57.6% and his sinker is used 45.8% for just a .213 wOBA and his barrel rate over his career is just 5.3%. The career launch angle is just four degrees which helps him an awful lot as well, and the Royals are a solid if unspectacular offense.
Before today’s outburst, Kansas City was in the bottom 10 against righties through a lot of the offensive categories we value but they are second in fly-ball rate. Something will have to give there and in 2021, they were 16th in ground ball rate so I don’t think KC stays this high. This offense is mostly the same outside of the addition of Bobby Witt Jr. (Adalberto Mondesi could be considered an addition as well, but you get the idea) and they should tend to be righty-heavy with about six in the lineup. Hudson needs that with his career splits because lefties have a .323 wOBA, 5.11 xFIP, 1.48 WHIP, and the hard-hit rate goes to 40.9%. As long as the Royals remain mostly righties, Hudson is on the board and could be the most popular SP2 on DK.
Note – I wanted to make the case for either Daniel Lynch with his pedigree or Alexander Wells since he’s just $4,000 ON DK (we always need to look to extract value if a starter is $4,000 on DK) but I can’t build a path for either pitcher. Lynch could get things to click but until he shows his four-seam/changeup combo can do better than giving up wOBA’s over .420, you can’t trust him. That’s especially true against righty-power, which the Cardinals have plenty of.
Pitchers To Attack
Thanks to Brian for reminding me that I did this section last year because truth be told, I forgot I did it. The first team I’m looking to attack isn’t going to make him happy because the Houston Astros get to face Madison Bumgarner and the Astros can do some serious damage against the veteran lefty. MadBum had an xFIP over 8.00 in his first start and gave up a .323 wOBA, 5.03 xFIP, and a 1.35 HR/9 against the right side of the plate. He’s using the cutter a lot again and Yuli Gurriel, Jose Altuve, and Alex Bregman were all positive players against that pitch last season on top of them having at least a .337 wOBA last year against lefty pitching. We can look at Aledmys Díaz and Jeremy Pena for value and don’t be afraid to mix in the lefties of Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker. Bumgarner allowed a HR/9 over 1.90 last year to lefties and both Alvarez and Tucker stand out as two of the top three cutter hitters on Houston and were in the top 10 in the entire league. Both hitters had an ISO of at least .249 so the LvL matchup is not one to fear and if Bumgarner gets lit up, he won’t last long anyway. On a larger slate, these lefties won’t get much traction I’m betting and the Astros as a whole are just far too cheap.
I’m also heading right back to the well on the Blue Jays, even though Nestor Cortes had some strong numbers on the surface for the Yankees last season. Three things stand out in the profile for Cortes and it’s the 51.5% fly-ball rate, 23.7 degrees launch angle, and the xFIP of 4.18 compared to his 2.90 ERA across 93 IP last year. The launch angle is right under what is a fly ball by the MLB definition and 23.7 is still a line drive. Pitchers don’t want to be on this end of a bad flyball rate against the Jays no fewer than five Jays last year had a wOBA over .400 and an ISO over .210 against lefty pitching. Teoscar Hernandez, Alejandro Kirk (60 PA but still), Bo Bichette, Vlad Jr., and George Springer all mashed lefties last year, and Santiago Espinal and Lourdes Gurriel were both over .310 for their wOBA as well. Springer is the only player of the bunch that had a K rate over 21% so these guys weren’t missing that often and Cortes leans on a four-seam/cutter mix. Vlad finished second in the league against the fastball and on the Jays, Springer, Hernandez, Bichette, and Espinal were all in the top seven of the team. They were mostly ignored last night and that could be the case again, but they won’t be in my lineups.
Honorable Mention
Rockies vs Rangers Game Stack (Cron, Bryant, and Joe from Colorado/Semien, Seager, and Brad Miller from Texas)
Dodgers vs Twins Stack (Turner, Freeman, Muncy, Betts, Lux/Buxton, Correa, Sanchez, and Polanco are interesting against Heaney)
Braves vs Patrick Corbin (They didn’t look as great against lefties as I thought they might but Ozuna, Albies, Riley would lead the pack)
Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 4/12 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
