Adam Strangis MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.8
Last night was once again mostly solid across the board, with Hyun Jon Ryu being the only real miss. My concerns with Max Scherzer were unfounded as he went for 31 DK. Likewise, Kevin Gausman and Zac Gallen had a pitchers duel on the West Coast and both smashed through the late night…until Gallen went backwards in a hurry giving up four earned. We’ll continue to try and make all the right pitches in MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.8 and the options are spread all over the board tonight.
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Cash Options
Walker Buehler
Pitch Data – FB – 30th CT – 9th CB – 14th SL – 10th
We just saw Buehler versus this D-Backs offense and things went well for him with 21 DK points on just 71 pitches. Considering he just came off the IL, I would have to think we see about 90 pitches this time around which would leave him around the 25 DK point window in my mind. The strikeouts have made their way back for Buehler who is up over 28% and the swinging strike rate is almost to the 2019 mark as well.
The fly balls and hard contact are both good to acceptable, although the fly balls at 42.1% isn’t my favorite metric. Buehler is likely the most talented pitcher on the slate and Kevin Gausman just racked up nine strikeouts against this D-Backs squad last night. It can be done and Buehler is likely lock and load in cash, carrying a high ceiling.
Andrew Heaney
Pitch Data – FB – 27th SL – 30th CH – 24th
Picking a SP2 on DK is pretty difficult tonight. There’s going to be two that are in GPP consideration that I can’t quite talk myself into but there’s a strong case. I generally go with the cheapest SP2 that I like in this spot and Heaney fits the bill. That might be the first time I’ve ever said that, but here we are. The K rate is 26.3% which is more than fine but the big facet for Heaney is the HR/9. His career mark is 1.46 and this season it’s 0.41. That’s a massive improvement, and suddenly he’s the horse in the rotation. He hasn’t thrown under 97 pitches the past four starts.
As far as the matchup, the Rangers have scuffled with LHP all year. Their K rate is 24.8% and they still lead the league in ground ball rate to that side of the mound. The team ISO only ranks 24th and the wOBA is 28th. It’s a tough slate for SP2 but I’m rolling with Heaney.
GPP Options
Lance Lynn
Pitch Data – FB – 20th SL – 15th CB – 7th
The only thing keeping Lynn out of cash where he is normally a mainstay is the matchup. I’m always a bit leery for paying top dollar for pitchers where the strikeouts just might not be there. The Angels are barely over 21% but Lynn is over 27% on his own. The good news is the pitch data really does favor Lynn. He throws the fastball almost 70% of the time and that’s the worst pitch for the Angels. The curve is under 9% so that shouldn’t kill him.
The swinging strike rate is a hair scary. It’s only 11.1% and is down almost 1.5% from last year. That could suggest some small regression for the whiffs and this would be a spot for it to happen. His 2.67 ERA isn’t really matched by the 3.92 FIP or the 4.27 xFIP so this is why I favor Heaney. Lynn does routinely throw 100+ pitches so he could grind his way to a solid game.
Sixto Sanchez
Pitch Data – FB – 1st CH – 26th SL – 8th CB – 8th
This is the other pitcher I at least had thoughts of for cash just based on salary. However, the blowup potential is just too high for cash and I’d rather punt a bat. That doesn’t mean the impressive young buck for the Marlins can’t pay off here. Atlanta does whiff almost 25% of the time so if he can avoid them hammering the fastball, it could be a big night. Sanchez is just under a 14% swinging strike rate and has whiffed 26.8% of the hitters he’s faced.
Opposing hitters aren’t just striking out. Sanchez has held both the fly ball and hard hit rates under 30% each and his ERA is just 2.37. His xFIP matches mostly at 2.66 and the FIP is 3.36, which is nothing too shabby. We only have a 19 IP sample but Sanchez has been excellent so far. I just can’t say he’s safe for cash.
Mike Clevinger
Pitch Data – FB – 9th SL – 4th CB – 29th CH – 28th
Someone has to explain to me why Clevinger saw his price jump by $1,200 coming off a single digit DK point game. That makes no sense. I’m still interested because the flow chart says the Rockies are on the road, and that means the opposing pitcher is in play. They whiff nearly 28% of the time and Clevinger might need all the help he can get.
He’s been traded and sent to the alternate training site, contributing to making just five starts so far. Still, the metrics aren’t good. The 20% K rate is massively lower than the career 27.1% mark. The 1.57 HR/9 to go with a FIP of 5.07 and xFIP of 4.87 don’t look great either. You’re hoping the easy matchup wakes him up, but you’re not getting a discount on him either. It’s the main reason why he’s not cash on MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.8.
Monkey Knife Fight
One of the best parts about Monkey Knife Fight is the ability to not have to worry about salary. For instance, I want Dodgers vs Luke Weaver tonight. He’s giving up at least a .357 wOBA and LHH have a 3.31 HR/9. Cody Bellinger, Mookie Betts and Corey Seager are all over a .280 ISO and a .330 wOBA to RHP this year. They are also a combined $17,300 on DK. That doesn’t matter here!
Let’s get after it tonight my friends!
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