Adam Strangis MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.6
Yesterday was an excellent day with no pitcher scoring under 16 DK and we got a gem out of a very cheap Seth Lugo. A lot of the offenses we discussed in Discord fell flat but sometimes that’s just the way a slate goes. Today’s slate features some really bad pitching so it could lead to some chalky options for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.6.
Cash Options
Shane Bieber
Pitch Data – FB – 28th CB – 7th CT – 25th SL – 21st
There has to be a day at some point where Bieber just doesn’t have it. That’s just a law of averages with pitching but there’s not much to suggest that day is today. The swinging strike rate is still 17.6%, The K rate overall is still 42.4% and the ERA, FIP and xFIP are all under 1.90. RHH have the slightly better wOBA at .257 but both sides whiff over 40%. With Milwaukee sitting second in K rate to RHP at 27.2%, Bieber has everything pointed towards him dominating yet again.
Tyler Glasnow
Pitch Data – FB – 23rd CB – 15th
Glasnow remains under $9,000 which simply seems like an error in pricing. He’s figured things out his past three starts, compiling at least 21 DK in all three and 33+ in two. During that time, he’s pitched 18.2 innings and racked up 30 strikeouts while giving up four earned runs. This is the Glasnow that we got at the start of 2019 before injuries ruined his season.
Even with some struggles, Glasnow has dragged the ERA to a 4.24 mark. The FIP at 3.03 and xFIP at 2.56 would continue to suggest there’s room to have bette results and the BABIP is still over .310. That’s not helping Glasnow. His K rate is 39.6% and the swing and miss stuff is up 2% from last season to 14.2%. Miami is sixth in K rate to RHP and Glasnow should flirt with double digits today.
GPP Options
Jacob deGrom
Pitch Data – FB – 9th SL – 14th CH – 1st
deGrom is probably happy to not be pitching against the Marlins. With the scheduling quirks and issues this year, he faced them four straight times his past four starts. I have him in GPP not for risk factor, but for ownership factor. Bieber has been the superior pitcher and has a much better matchup so the field will find the extra $500. If Bieber is off and deGrom is one, you could have a big advantage.
deGrom is another pitcher who has seen his swinging strike rate spike, all the way up to 20.6% this season. The next highest starting pitcher is Lucas Giolito at 17.9%, so it tells you just how nasty deGrom has been. Now, Philly is not a big K team at just 21% and the pitch data would give me pause with a lesser pitcher. I favor Bieber, but deGrom at a potentially low ownership is really fascinating.
Aaron Nola
Pitch Data – FB – 12th CH – 2nd CB – 24th
I really can’t get behind any pitcher lower priced than Glasnow and most of the field likely things the same. So if the ownership flocks to Bieber and then some pitch deGrom, Nola is absolutely worth the look as the third-highest owned pitcher. His K rate sits and what is easily his career-best of 34.3% and he will need it. The Mets only whiff 21.3% of the time and they also have the highest average vs RHP all year.
Nola has only pitched 9.2 innings on the road so far to the tune of a 5.59 ERA but that was one poor start vs the Braves. There’s no reason to think it’s not just a fluke, considering his other road start generated 27.6 DK vs the Nationals. The facet I like for Nola is he’s best to LHH, with just a .100 average and a .187 wOBA. Even the OPS is barely over .400. The Mets projected lineup has six LHH and most of their better hitters are on that side of the plate.
Monkey Knife Fight
Since this is a pitching based article, we don’t talk about offenses too much unless we’re attacking them. It’s a great time to sign up with our link to monkeyknifefight.com and make some bets yourself that are based on offense!
Matt Harvey is on the mound today and has given up a .563 average, 1.736 OPS and a .701 wOBA to RHH so far across 18 hitters faced. That’s not just a small sample, that’s who Harvey is at this point. The FIP is even an outrageous 17.77. These White Sox hitters should have a good day. Luis Robert, Eloy Jimenez and Jose Abreu all have an ISO over .265 and a wOBA over .375 vs RHP on the season.
Let’s get after it tonight my friends!
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