Adam Strangis MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.5
It’s one of the smaller Sunday slates with only 10 games and we have some heavy hitters on the mound, as it were. I don’t think we have any real cheap options tonight but we learned a few nights ago working with double aces is very possible in any slate. Let’s got moving in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.5 and figure out who we’re pitching and the stacks to compliment them!
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.5 – Main Targets
Ace Tier
We only have three ace-level players as far as salary goes and I have to believe that Robbie Ray will be the most-rostered pitcher on this slate. He very much should be as he is on a tear, pushing Gerrit Cole for the AL Cy Young. It is of small concern that Oakland is the best team against the slider in the league and Ray has 99 strikeouts with that pitch. It also has a .218 wOBA and a 46.4% whiff rate so it’s a strength for both sides. That pitch is ranked sixth among sliders on FanGraphs this season so even with small concerns, Ray is an elite play. He’s striking out righties at a 31.7% clip and only has a 1.06 WHIP against them as well. Despite likely facing eight righties, Ray is pitching so incredibly well and he’s walked through difficult matchups in this stretch before.
I’m looking to play Ray and Corbin Burnes together in all honesty. Theoretically, this brings out the best outcomes for Burnes since he’s nastier against righties with a 37.1% K rate, a 1.52 FIP, 2.30 xFIP, .209 wOBA, and a 0.81 WHIP. Six of the eight hitters not counting the pitcher should be righty for the Cards today He’s started three games against the Cards this year and the floor has been 21 DK in those starts. St. Louis does rank 11th against the cutter but they are also bottom 10 in wOBA, wRC+, ISO, and OPS against righties this year and Burnes feels among the “safer” picks on the slate. I can’t wait for that phrase to bite me.
Last but certainly not least, Dylan Cease has to be in the running as well. He’s rocking a 30.8% K rate and the FIP/xFIP combo is under 3.90. His pitch mix could be especially nice in this spot because he has a four-seam/slider combo that he throws 76% of the time. They’ve accounted for 129 strikeouts on the season and the slider is fantastic at a 47.6% whiff rate and a .262 wOBA. Kansas City is bottom 12 against both pitches but they are worse against the fastball and Cease does have a .344 wOBA against that pitch. He is reverse splits and will face five righties so I do think he’s third in this tier, but the gap isn’t exceptionally large.
Mid-Tier
We have to talk about Luis Castillo but I have to say, he’s showing signs of turning back into what he was at the start of the season. In August, Castillo had a 4.58 ERA, .341 wOBA, and a 1.30 WHIP. I grant you that the xFIP was only 3.27 so it’s a mixed bag for Castillo, as it’s been through a significant chunk of 2021. The Tigers are also 11th against the changeup and that’s not ideal because the change has been the best pitch for Castillo with a .263 wOBA and a 32% whiff rate. At the salaries involved, I’m more than happy to plant my flag with Ray and Burnes for $1,200. and $800 more.
I may be more inclined to also look at another Luis, as in Luis Patino for the Rays. Of course, nothing is ever cut and dry but I only consider Patino if he draws a righty-heavy lineup. He has a .351 wOBA against the left side of the plate to go along with a 7.16 xFIP, 6.11 FIP, and his walk rate is higher than his K rate. When he faces a righty, the xFIP comes down to 3.71, the K rate spikes to 29.3%, and the WHIP is only 0.95. It’s pretty easy to see that the slider is the main reason since he’s thrown it 239 times against righties out of 282 total sliders. It’s been excellent with a 35.3% whiff rate and a .250 wOBA. Minnesota is projected to have six righties and if that holds, I like Patino here.
I kind of view Elieser Hernandez and Josiah Gray as the same style of pitcher. Both have strikeout upside in theory, but both have some flaws as well. For Hernandez, the K rate hasn’t exactly been there since returning from injury with only a 20.6% rate, 5.96 FIP, and a 4.62 xFIP. His four-seam is giving up a .445 wOBA and that is pretty concerning at this juncture.
As far as gray is concerned, his K rate of 26.7% looks great but the FIP is over 6.00 to each side of the plate and the WHIP is over 1.30. Both sides also sport a fly-ball rate over 50% and his four-seam/curve makes up about 80% of his mix. Those pitches also both have a wOBA over .300 and they have given up 12 home runs already in just 40 IP. Even with ceiling potential, I can’t really get on board.
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.5 Stacks
Listen – it is not my fault that the Rays continue to get a putrid starting pitcher to pick on. They are an elite offense that we have continually learned nobody seems to want to play, and I bet today is not all that different. Griffin Jax has an xFIP around 5.50 against each side with a wOBA over .350 to each side as well. He’s using the fastball over 45% of the time against each side on top of that and it’s giving up a .307 ISO. Every single pitch has an average distance of at least 304 feet. Every. Single. Pitch. Every Rays player is in play today and my main targets are Randy Arozarena, Austin Meadows, Brandon Lowe, and punting with Kevin Kiermaier. You can legitimately mix and match everyone with who you want to fit.
After that, I do want to snag a piece or two of the (presumably) chalky Yankees. They get lefty Keegan Akin and I want Luke Voit, Gleyber Torres, and Kyle Higashioka. I can only afford two of them and will need a punt or two (likely looking towards Pittsburgh again against Zach Davies to make it work), but we get Sunday lineups and can get a punt we don’t expect. Those hitters are affordable and are over a .320 wOBA against lefties at least and they all hit the fastball well. Higgy did play yesterday so that could make the decision easy.
- Brewers against Jon Lester
- Reds lefties against Casey Mize
- Jays against Cole Irvin
- Cubs against Wil Crowe
Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.5 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
