Adam Strangis MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.4
It’s Saturday and we have a split slate with six games in the afternoon and nine in the evening! The later slate got the better end of the pitching to be sure, even though the spots are not perfect. We have a lot to get to in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.4 so let’s get rolling and start laying our foundations for green screens!
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.4 – Afternoon
We’re going to discard the Tiers for the afternoon because this slate is tough sledding no matter what salary you’re paying. I feel like Marcus Stroman is going to be the chalk, even though the salary is pretty uncomfortable. It is honestly baffling why he doesn’t strike out more hitters. The swinging-strike rate has never been higher than the 11.7% he’s sporting this year and three of his four pitches have a whiff rate over 33%. Still, the K rate is under 22% which isn’t much for this salary range. The Nationals are also ninth in OBP since the trade deadline (as mentioned in Discord by user Derceto) with a K rate under 21%. The other large issue is Stroman has a lower K rate against the left side of the plate and Washington is scheduled to have at least five in the lineup. He’s appealing mostly just because of the slate.
I’m also going against the grain for what I normally play and looking heavily at Chris Archer. He’s only pitched 10.1 innings but his K rate is 34.8% so far. I do NOT expect that to continue, but it was nice to see him get to 59 pitches and the velocity come back to him as he pitched last time out. The FIP/xFIP combo is 2.19/2.99 and his WHIP is only 0.87 despite a .423 BABIP. The swinging-strike rate of 14.9% looks excellent and if he gets to around 70 pitches, that’s only going to help. We do need a big grain of salt in such a small sample and that’s a small concern. His numbers against righties look rough with a .354 wOBA but that’s also the side of the plate that has a .474 BABIP, a ridiculous number. He’s using the four-seam/slider combo 90% of the time and the slider has earned a 46.9% whiff rate, even with it being the most thrown pitch. Minnesota is just 16th against that pitch.
Two other pitchers may get some attention but are not likely to be my choice. Jose Berrios is $10,000 and he just doesn’t seem to pay off that price very often. Yes, last game he went off but that puts him one start closer to a bad one and the A’s aren’t the Tigers. Even though I’, noted to not get along with Berrios, he does have a pathway to a great start here. He’s much better against righties with a .234 wOBA, 2.92 FIP, 24% K rate, and a 0.85 WHIP. Oakland likely only has three lefties in the lineup and they are 27th against the curveball. That is the primary pitch for Berrios with 80 strikeouts, a .251 wOBA, and a 35.7% whiff rate.
Jordan Montgomery suddenly can’t strike anyone out, with just five combined inches last two starts and not higher than six in nine of his last 10 starts. That doesn’t scream upside, especially against a Baltimore offense that only whiffs 22.4% of the time against lefties. They are also 11th in ISO, wRC+, and 13th in wOBA. While they aren’t a trustworthy offense, I would favor them over Montgomery in New York. He has a .306 wOBA and a 4.26 xFIP against righties and the Orioles can throw eight at him.
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.4 Afternoon Stacks
It’s going to sound like a broken record but we’re going with the Rays once again. The Twins are using a 35-year old lefty in Andrew Albers who has a 5.97 FIP, 5.19 xFIP, and a 10.5% K rate against righties through just 19 hitters faced and that’s not going to cut it against the Rays. Mike Zunino, Wander Franco, Randy Arozarena, Manuel Margot, and Yandy Diaz are all over a .310 wOBA and the first three are over a .220 ISO. Albers is throwing a fastball or sinker over 60% of the time against righties, and we all know what to do with that. Load them up!
You’re likely wondering how on Earth I’m going to afford the pitching we’ve talked about and the Rays. Don’t fret, there’s a super cheap offense we can get exposure to on this slate. I didn’t mention Nelson Cruz for the Rays because we can consider a three-man Pirates stack with Bryan Reynolds, Colin Moran, and Hoy Park, among others. I want Bucco lefties because Kyle Hendricks has a .368 wOBA against lefties and that number has been higher in Wrigley, as is the 6.22 FIP and the 5.21 xFIP. Reynolds would be getting buzz for a dark horse MVP candidate if the Pirates were any good, and the other two are over a .285 wOBA. Moran has been hot since coming back from injury, hitting .324 over the past 10 games.
- Blue Jays against Paul Blackburn
- Red Sox against Eli Morgan
- Cubs against Miguel Yajure
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.4 – Evening
Ace Tier
Some pitchers are priced like aces but I can’t say there is an ace on this slate. You could try and take a shot with Tyler Mahle since he draws the Tigers, a strikeout-heavy lineup but there’s plenty of warning signs there as well. Detroit is 20th against the fastball and Mahle throws his four-seam over 52% of the time. It does allow a .327 wOBA but it also has 111 of his 174 strikeouts so it’s very clearly his best strikeout weapon. Mahle has been reverse-splits with a .360 wOBA against the right side of the plate and the Tigers project to be balanced with four of each handedness. His K rate against lefties of 31.7% keeps him in the running, but let’s see how the rest of the slate shakes out. The salary is truly frightening.
Both Framber Valdez and Joe Musgrove are theoretically in play, but the lower strikeout ceiling has me concerned. San Diego has come up to 22.2% for the K rate against lefties but Valdez is only at a 22.4% rate himself. What is interesting for him is the Padres are sixth in ground ball rate while Valdez is flirting with a 70% rate. They are also far worse against lefty pitching than one would expect, sitting under 20th in slugging, OPS, ISO, OBP, wOBA, and wRC+. Valdez is a fine option with some stealthy upside but the price is a little hard to swallow.
Musgrove was dominant last time out against the Angels team and he gets another challenge with the Astros. They are the lowest K-rate team in baseball combined with sitting in the top three in wOBA, wRC+, OPS, and OBP. It does help they lose the DH, that Musgrove is over a 28% K rate, and the Astros are projected to be righty-heavy. Musgrove excels against that side of the plate with a .228 wOBA, 29% K rate, 0.87 WHIP, and a 2.89 FIP. It should be noted that the xFIP is about the same regardless of handedness, so there is a risk in going against the Houston lineup to be sure. Then again, the Astros struggled to hit Jake Arrieta last night so maybe Musgrove can handle it just fine.
Lastly, we have Julio Urias is a pitcher’s haven but in a not-so-easy spot as far as the opponent goes. San Francisco is about average through most of our categories so far against lefties but the K rate is very low at just 21.7%. What could really help Urias is the Giants are still projected to play three lefties and he’s whiffing them at a 31% rate. The righties are at 24.9% which is still plenty but some lefties help raise the ceiling a bit. San Fran is ninth against the curveball and that has been the main strikeout pitch for Urias with 66. He’s faced this team four times already this season and he’s logged 17, 21, 31, and 1 DK points against them.
I feel like Reynaldo Lopez could bite me at any time but his three starts recently have been very strong overall. He’s only allowed a total of three runs and he’s been lights out against righty hitters, holding them to a .168 wOBA and a K rate over 40%. Lefties whiff just 17.9%, but their wOBA is only .248. His fastball is being thrown about 58% of the time and KC is ranked 25th against that pitch. Lopez’s version has a .168 wOBA, the most strikeouts of his mix, and a 26.1% whiff rate. His price is excellent compared to some of the other options on the slate, that’s for sure.
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.4 Stacks
I know the park isn’t great but my word are the Dodgers cheap for taking on a lefty with a 5.63 ERA and a 4.66 xFIP. Sammy Long is getting hammered by righty hitters with a 45.8% fly-ball rate, .368 wOBA, and a FIP/xFIP combo over 5.20. We can mix and match all of Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, Justin Turner, A.J. Pollock, and Chris Taylor. Long is throwing the fastball about 37% of the time against righties and all of those hitters are over a .390 wOBA and a .239 ISO against that pitch. On top of that, they all have at least a .353 wOBA and .204 ISO against lefties on the season.
By appearances, Daniel Lynch of the Royals has been better, and in fairness, he’s not getting totally lit up. In August, his ERA was 2.39 but the wOBA was .318 and the xFIP was 4.75. I want a piece of the White Sox lineup against him even if it’s not a full-stack. Andrew Vaughn, Luis Robert, and Jose Abreu all have a wOBA over .390 this season against lefties and an ISO over .320. Those are big numbers and Vaughn is super cheap on top of it. Lynch throws his fastball almost 40% of the time and it’s giving up a .203 ISO with a 321-foot average distance. That trio makes an awful lot of sense.
- Reds against Matt Boyd
- Brewers against Kwang Hyun Kim
- Angels against Kolby Allard
Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.4 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
