Adam Strangis MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.3
We’re back in action and we have 14 games to pick from! We have some choices up top, a very mediocre middle of the pack, and a super interesting punt. Let’s get right down to business in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.3 and forge our paths towards the green screens again!
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.3 – Main Targets
Ace Tier
I may not live in this range tonight, as I think every one of the options carries some risk. Freddy Peralta is coming off the IL and even though he wasn’t on it for an extended period, I’m not super trustworthy about his pitch count. He’s surpassed his career-high in innings as it is and the Brewers don’t have a lot of motivation to let him stray from a pitch count. If we get confirmation it’s all systems go, he would be my favorite. The price tag is super low for a pitcher who has a 34% K rate and the Cardinals lineup would play into his strength. I will be righty-heavy and Peralta owns the right side with a .234 wOBA, 40.1% K rate, and a 2.64 xFIP. Alex Manoah has some of the highest upsides on the slate but could easily score in the negatives as well. Oakland ranks second against the slider, which is a big red flag. If Manoah’s slider isn’t working, that’s an issue. His slider has the highest whiff rate and the most strikeouts so far for him, which makes this spot scary.
Adam Wainwright and Nathan Eovaldi are fine options, but seem a hair pricey. Waino doesn’t get to pick on the Pirates in this start and the K rate for the season is under 23%. He also has a higher WHIP, xFIP, wOBA, and average against lefties. Milwaukee will have at least four in the lineup and it could be tough for Wainwright to have a true ceiling at this salary. For the Eovaldi part, his K rate is higher at 24.6% and he certainly gets a fairly soft matchup. Cleveland whiffs over 23% of the time against righties and are in the bottom half of the league in wRC+, wOBA, OPS, and OBP. They are also 17th against the curveball and that’s been his best pitch with the lowest wOBA and highest whiff rate. They also rank 18th against the fastball and that has the most strikeouts of any pitch. Eovaldi makes the most sense if you spend up, although it’s not my preferred path.
Mid-Tier
I have to assume we finally see Shohei Ohtani as chalk tonight. With the ace options uninspiring, Ohtani is going to take center stage and we’ve seen the field attack the Texas lineup relentlessly since the trade deadline. They are now typically righty-heavy with a projected six and that is what helps unlock the ceiling for Ohtani, in theory. He dominates the right side of the plate with a 35.4% K rate and a 2.03 FIP, to go along with a 0.83 FIP and a .218 wOBA. His splitter gets the deserved attention but his slider is no joke either with a 33.8% whiff rate and a .242 wOBA. Texas is just at a 21.9% K rate against righties since the deadline, but Ohtani can certainly get by that metric.
He’s rarely in this article, but Kyle Gibson could pick up some steam as a popular option and I have to say, I get why. He gets a big-time upgrade as far as the park in Miami and he’s generated his best results against the right side of the plate. Gibson has gotten a 57.4% ground ball rate, a 20.7% K rate, a 1.06 WHIP, and a .250 wOBA. Not only is Miami second in ground ball rate against righties, but they are striking out over 25% of the time. Miami typically has six righties and the pitcher’s spot, so Gibson is well in play at this price.
Honorable Mention
Madison Bumgarner – He is a bit too pricey in my eyes, but I do think he could be quite a pivot away from Ohtani if you’re of that mindset. You could even pitch both players because Seattle loses the DH and they are projected to have four lefties in the lineup. MadBum has a 26.2% K rate against lefties and a 3.97 xFIP. Seattle is top-three in K rate against lefties so if there’s a spot for him to pay off this price…this rates as one of them.
Punt Range
After seeing Joe Ryan get rostered upwards of 50% recently even in GPP, I think the field is going to be interested in Glenn Otto at just $5,000. We have Coors and other big-name offensive stacks and Otto’s first start couldn’t have gone much better. He went five innings, struck out seven, and had a 0.36 FIP and 2.13 xFIP. The ground ball rate was 50% and the swinging-strike rate was a respectable 9.6%. Otto was sitting at a 24.5% K rate in the minors so he does have that ability and really the largest issue could be the Angels are third against the slider. He threw 30 each of the slider and four-seam but the slider had a 40% whiff rate. For the salary, all we need is 12-15 DK and LA is up to 11th in K rate against righty pitching.
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.3 Stacks
I mentioned Coors Field but we’re kicking things off out even further west because the Padres are letting Jake Arrieta pitch. Why they’re doing that, I haven’t the foggiest idea but the Astros are the late-night hammer to shoot us up the leaderboards. Arrieta is giving up a wOBA of at least .397 against each side of the plate so we can go after anyone we choose. They are very expensive but we can build a stack centered on the outfield because Arrieta is slightly worse against lefties. Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, and Michael Brantley are all over a 3.65 wOBA or .150 ISO against righties. I’m willing to leave out Brantley because there’s another OF player I have my eyes on. I will also heavily consider Alex Bregman since he has a 15.2% K rate and his timing is getting back after his lengthy injury.
If you’re inclined to roll with Ohtani/Otto at pitcher, you can still afford some of the Coors bats and I’m actually more excited for the Colorado side of things. Huascar Ynoa is reverse splits and is worse against righties with a 5.20 FIP and his K rate dips as well. The slider might be less effective in Coors and his fastball is still used 42% against righties, giving up a .222 ISO. Trevor Story, Brendan Rodgers, C.J. Cron, and Sam Hilliard all have a wOBA over .350 against the fastball and Hilliard is at a .384 ISO. I bring him up because of his salary and he kills righty sliders with a .524 ISO and a 361-foot average distance. I’m willing to throw Brantley overboard to play Hilliard. That trio is also sitting at least at a .130 ISO and .294 wOBA against righties but Coors is the great equalizer.
- Rays against Randy Dobnak
- Royals against Dallas Keuchel
- Nationals against Rich Hill
- Yankees against John Means
- Jays against Sean Manaea
Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.3 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
