Adam Strangis MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.28
We are finally back in action since we have a good number of teams in action and contests worth playing! It’s the last week of the season so we have to preach caution this week. So many teams have nothing to play for and they are wild cards on the slate. We’re going to focus more on who has to continue to play hard instead of the tier system in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.28 to set our paths to green!
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.28
Starters That Have to Play
Here’s the good news – We have a lot of options from teams that can make the playoffs and I will not be playing anyone else tonight. The premier series as far as playoff implications have to be the Phillies/Braves series. With one wild card spot locked up from the NL West, the NL East likely only sends one team and the Braves are sporting a 2.5 game lead in the division. Not only is it a massive series, but both teams also send an ace to the mound in Zack Wheeler and Charlie Morton.
Despite an average start last time out for Wheeler, he’s been on point through 23.2 IP in September with a 1.14 ERA, a .256 wOBA, a 33.7% K rate, and a 2.02 FIP. His four-seam/slider combo has been the bread and butter for Wheeler with both pitches having a wOBA under .285 and a whiff rate over 26%. They all have accounted for 172 strikeouts so far this year. The Braves side is 13th against the fastball and 15th against the slider so it’s nothing special. Wheeler also has strong splits against either side of the plate, helping his appeal. Lastly, Wheeler has faced this team four times and has three starts above 28 DK with two over 39. He had one stumble for 5.9 DK points but he’s easily one of the better options on the slate from any angle.
Morton could be argued to be in an even better spot. Historically, he’s been worse against lefties and that would worry me since the Phillies are projected to play five of them. However, this year has been different since lefties only have a .266 wOBA, a 3.14 FIP, and a 3.28 xFIP. The K rate is what jumps out sitting at 31.3% and the curve has been the main weapon for Morton. It has a .180 wOBA, 121 strikeouts, and a whopping 40.4% whiff rate. That’s fairly ridiculous for a primary pitch. Philly does sit 12th against the curveball but I’m not going to let that one metric stop me. Morton knows what’s at stake and should bring his A-game tonight.
The next stop is out West but these two pitchers aren’t facing each other. Walker Buehler and Logan Webb are pitching for the Dodgers and Giants respectively and both teams need to win. Yes, they have clinched playoff spots but one of them has to host a Wild Card game and that is not a fun proposition. One loss ends the season so the division is extremely important to each team. Buehler could be in the tougher spot but the Padres have nothing left to play for and frankly are the largest disappointment of the season. If there’s a worry about Buehler, it’s the K rate since the start of the month. It’s sitting at 14.8% which is dreadful. Both the FIP and xFIP are over 4.50 and the wOBA is over .391. For me, I’d just as soon go Wheeler who is in excellent recent form at this price range.
The reason the Webb is in the second tier in my eyes is the matchup. Granted, the D-Backs aren’t very good overall on the offensive side of things, to say the least. They are 29th or 30th in wOBA, wRC+, ISO, and OPS on the season with a 24.9% K rate to boot. The red flag is Webb is a good bit worse against lefties with a 3.26 xFIP, .298 wOBA, and the K rate drops down to 22.5%. One of the main reasons would appear to be the lack of slider usage against lefties. Webb has thrown 566 of them and only 196 have been thrown to the left side of the plate. It has a 46.3% whiff rate and a .181 wOBA so the D-Backs projecting for seven lefties would be a tough spot for a ceiling game, at least on paper. Webb does display a 30.8% K rate at home so he’s not totally off the table, but I do wonder about the ceiling.
The player that I would consider in the high end as well would be Chris Sale. Boston is in full desperation mode after getting swept by the Yankees in Fenway Park. With the Rays clinching the division, the Yanks, Sox, Blue Jays, Mariners, and A’s are all fighting for two wild-card spots. The five teams are separated by just three games so their starters are going to be in our sights for most of the week. Anyways, Sale has been fairly strong through his 35 IP to this point with a 26.4% K rate, a 13.1% swinging-strike rate, and a hard-hit rate of 22.7%. Baltimore has a 23% K rate but does have some pop with the 10th highest ISO. Sale is throwing the changeup about 22% of the time and that is not fooling anyone. It’s getting clobbered for a .466 wOBA and it’s flirting with a .470 batting average. Baltimore is 25th against the change but there is the risk with Sale, even given the need from Boston for a big start.
The Cardinals are on one of the longest winning streaks….well, ever and Adam Wainwright gets the ball tonight. Now, the Brewers have mostly had his number since, in four starts, he’s had three scores under 20 DK. While Waino can pop up with big scores in any game, his K rate is under 22% on the year and the 8.2% swinging-strike rate is a far cry from some of the other players on the slate. I want to keep him in mind because the Brewers could throw out a terrible lineup that could change the whole equation.
Lastly, we have Jameson Taillon, Hyun Jin Ryu, Chris Bassitt, and Yusei Kikuchi going to the hill. Bassitt would typically be the clear favorite but he might have a pitch limit no higher than 65-70 pitches. I’m still a little tempted at the price point because he’s been fantastic when he’s been active. The K rate is over 25% and he’s been at his best against lefty hitters. They only have a .262 wOBA and a 26.3% K rate against that side while Seattle is projected for five lefties and has the fourth-highest K rate in baseball against righties at 25.2%. Maybe we get some idea about the length sometime during the day and can go from there.
The battle of Taillon and Ryu might be fun for real life, but for fantasy purposes, I will have nothing to do with either pitcher. Ryu has been hammered in his last five starts and is coming off an IL stint. I would expect him to be on a very short leash against a powerful Yankees offense. Typically you’d play Taillon against a righty-heavy lineup but are you pitching him in Toronto against the Blue Jays? I’m not either. Kikuchi could tempt me but since the A’s rebuilt the offense on the fly at the deadline, they are top 15 in all of our offensive categories including 10th in wRC+ and 12th in ISO to go with an 18% K rate. I think there’s a very strong case to live in the upper range tonight.
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.28 Stacks
One of the reasons I can live in the high end is because I will happily eat the chalk tonight which will surely be the Rockies in Coors. Lefty Patrick Corbin has gotten blown up all year and no Colorado hitter is more expensive than $4,600 on DK. Just let that sink in.
Corbin has allowed 23 home runs on his slider and sinker combo and has a .388 wOBA with a 6.27 FIP against righty hitters. Give me all of C.J. Cron, Brendan Rodgers, and Trevor Story in this spot. They all have a wOBA over .385 on the season and an ISO of at least .279 against lefty pitching. Cron is 19th against the fastball and 26th against the slider among all hitters this season. He’s leaving the yard tonight without a doubt. We can kick in a catcher like Elias Diaz as well with a .205 ISO and a .323 wOBA. The first trio are among the top six on the Rockies against the fastball as well.
We can also turn to the Boston offense because they are in Camden and face a bad lefty as well. Bruce Zimmermann starts for the Orioles with a 5.40 FIP, 1.90 HR/9, and a .352 wOBA against the right side. He’s using the four-seam/changeup combo and the standouts include Hunter Renfroe, J.D. Martinez, Kike Hernandez, and even lefty Rafael Devers since he’s the best changeup hitter on the team. Zimmermann allows a .360 wOBA against lefties as well, and this stack correlates well with the main trio from the Rockies that we love so much. Of course, Xander Bogaerts is fully in play as well but I do prefer Story.
- Twins against Tyler Alexander
- White Sox against Reds pitching
- Astros against Michael Wacha
- Nationals against Kyle Freeland
- Tigers against Charlie Barnes
Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.28 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
