Adam Strangis MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.25
It looks like we have the normal Saturday split slate with nine games in the evening and five in the afternoon, which means plenty of MLB action today! That also means we have a whole lot to get into so let’s get moving in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.25 to layout our paths to green!
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.25 – Early
The early slate is fairly gross for pitching. We have strong pitchers but the matchups really limit what to expect for multiple players, including Framber Valdez, Sean Manaea, Nestor Cortes, and Sandy Alcantara. To be frank, the best path for pitching surely seems to be eating the presumed chalk in Shane McClanahan and Ranger Saurez. Let’s kick it off with the young lefty for the Rays, as McClanahan boasts a K rate of 27.9% and a massive swinging-strike rate of 15.1%. That’s higher than Gerrit Cole, who sits fifth in baseball for context. The slider and curveball mix for him make up about 50% of his pitches and both have a whiff rate over 40% and wOBA’s under .260. The pitch that has given him the most issues is his fastball with a wOBA well over .320 and a whiff rate of just 19%. That gets mitigated by the Marlins ranking 29th against fastballs this season. They also lead the league in K rate against lefty pitching at 27.8% this season and the spot just makes too much sense.
For Saurez, the Buccos don’t carry the same strikeout upside against lefties, sitting at just 20.5% since the deadline but they are 24th or worse in slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, wRC+ and OBP since that point. Saurez also carries a hefty 25.1% K rate himself and a 59.3% ground ball rate. He should face almost all righties but only has a .275 wOBA and a 22.6% K rate against that side. I will point out that the xFIP is 4.04 but the ground ball rate is still over 54%. If the Pirates happen to play a couple of lefties we don’t expect, the ceiling rises for Saurez with a 32% K rate against that side and a .155 wOBA. His main two pitches as far as strikeouts are his sinker/changeup combo and the Pirates should help there, sitting last against the fastball and 22nd against the changeup. I feel pretty strongly that we can eat the pitching chalk and just get different in another spot. Also, any concerns with Saurez vanish at this salary yet again.
If you wanted to take a shot at anyone else, I guess it would be Alcantara. Tampa can strike out against righties but my fear there is Alcantara is worse against lefties with a 3.93 xFIP and he’s also the largest investment in terms of salary. Past that, I will eat the chalk and call it a day with the blow-up potential among the other candidates.
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.25 – Early Stacks
We are likely to eat more chalk but the Yankee prices are too good to pass up on a five-game slate and I’m looking right to the heart of this lineup. Nick Pivetta has a wOBA over .310 against each side of the plate and against lefties the xFIP goes up to 4.63. His fly-ball rates are also over 40%, a bad mix when facing the Yanks. Pivetta is throwing his fastball right about 50% against each side as well and that’s where he’s going to find trouble. Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, Joey Gallo, and Giancarlo Stanton all have ISO’s of at least .237 and wOBA’s over .350 against righty fastballs. The Judge/Stanton/Gallo trio really stands out against that pitch and Pivetta allows a 46.2% hard-hit rate and a 340-foot average distance. They all have at least a .200 ISO on the season as well. Wheels up!
Now, we’re eating some chalk so far so we need to take some calculated chances to counterbalance it. Maybe this will be popular and if it is, you can go with more of a two-player and two-player stack with the four (or five) man Yanks but the Phillies correlate very well with the New York bats. Wil Crowe has a wOBA over .350 against each side and his fastball gets crushed with a .366 ISO and a 325-foot average distance. Freddy Galvis, Jean Segura, and Didi Gregorious fit perfectly and they all have an ISO over .130 on the year. That’s not super ideal, but Crowe is not a good pitcher and the Pirates bullpen is even worse right now. They do all have a wOBA over .325 against righty fastballs.
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.25 – Evening
Note – Corbin Burnes is pitching tonight so we can just refer to yesterday’s article for his breakdown. The only difference is now he’s $10,600, which is FAR more palatable to build a lineup around him. I’m actually annoyed because Burnes being over $12,000 actually forced you into a decision. Now, not so much.
Robbie Ray kind of let us down last time out but he was so popular that it didn’t matter much. I get that it’s super frustrating when you pay up for a pitcher to get smacked. However, Ray has been absolute money and I really wonder if the field just moves to Burnes. I love the spot for Burnes, but if Ray is half the popularity, Ray is a must-play in GPP. He has a 32.8% K rate and is top 10 in swinging-strike rate. Minnesota is average in K rate against lefties at 23.3% and the only scary metric is fifth against the fastball. At the same time, Ray’s fastball is rated the sixth-best in FanGraphs ratings and has been a major strength for him this season. He’ll face almost all righties but has a 32.9% K rate, a 3.29 xFIP, and a wOBA under .290 against that side.
Normally we want as many righty hitters in the lineup to play Lance Lynn, but three of the projected four lefties for Cleveland carry a 27% K rate or higher against righties this season. Lynn also throws a cutter 30% of the time for his second-most strikeouts and Cleveland is dead last against that pitch and 18th against fastballs. This is a strong spot for Lynn and the five righties in the Cleveland lineup should struggle as Lynn has only allowed a .230 wOBA, 29.9% K rate, and a 3.29 xFIP against that side of the plate. I’d rather play him than Clayton Kershaw because I don’t think Kershaw goes for 10 strikeouts under 80 pitches again.
This slate is not great for pitching either but I think the wild card may well be Tyler Anderson. He’s not a player we’ve generally chased and it can be scary coming off a big game, but the K rate is right under 20% and the Angels have been dreadful against lefties lately. They’re not striking out a ton since the deadline at under 22% but they also are 27th or lower in wOBA, wRC+, OPS, and OBP. They jump up to 20th in ISO but that’s about it. Three projected lefties for the Angels wouldn’t hurt either since Anderson has a .263 wOBA against that side while the K rate is 21% against righties. The Angels are also 24th against the fastball and fourth against the cutter, which are the main strikeout pitches for Anderson. The cutter data is the concern, but there is a lot of other factors going his way.
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.25 – Evening Stacks
We need some cheap hitter and let’s stop in Baltimore to grab some Orioles. Jordan Lyles is taking the ball for Texas and we could have a four-man stack IF Anthony Santander is back in the lineup. Even if not, the trio of Cedric Mullins, Ryan Mountcastle, and Austin Hays makes a ton of sense. Lyles has gotten smashed by each side of the plate and he uses the fastball around 40% of the time. Mullins, Mountcastle, and Hays all have an ISO over .245 and a wOBA over .350 against that pitch. On the season, they all sit over a .320 wOBA as well.
The Brewers face a lefty and they fit in nicely with the Orioles if we look at the combo of Manny Pina, Willy Adames, Avisail Garcia, and Eduardo Escobar. All of these hitters are over a .325 wOBA on the season against lefties and they sport at least a .170 ISO. Rich Hill is using the fastball 48% of the time against righties and it’s giving up a .220 ISO. All of those hitters also have an ISO over .185 and a wOBA over .310 against that pitch, meaning they are too cheap for the spot and we can combine these teams for some very cheap power potential.
- Blue Jays against Charlie Barnes
- Giants against Jon Gray
- White Sox against Eli Morgan
Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.25 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
