Adam Strangis MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.23
It was quite the day on the mound for the Win Daily Family. The Rotation’s selections that were written up all surpassed 20 DK points and Brian unearthed a gem with Steven Brault for the Buccos. Even Monkey Knife Fight hit for the double up amount, so it was an elite evening. Let’s go ahead and try to replicate it tonight on a LOADED (and I mean LOADED) pitching slate for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.23 and keep the Discord chat rolling!
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For a limited time, Monkey Knife Fight is sweetening the deal with a 100% match bonus up to $50. Be sure to check out my picks for tonight after the pitchers!
Cash Options
Shane Bieber
Pitch Data – FB – 3rd CB – 1st CT – 24th SL – 20th
My goodness do we have some arms available tonight. Bieber, Trevor Bauer, Lucas Giolito, Zack Greinke, Tyler Glasnow, Max Fried, Kenta Maeda….that’s what I’m talking about! Anyways, some folks might get scared off by the White Sox matchup but we have the likely AL Cy Young for barely $10,000 against a team that whiffs 25.7%, fifth-most. Sure, the lineup is dangerous otherwise but this is Bieber. He has a 40.6% K rate and a 0.86 WHIP. There’s not a team that I wouldn’t feel entirely comfortable with playing Bieber and his 17.4% swinging strike rate at this price point.
Trevor Bauer
Pitch Data – FB – 23rd CT – 29th SL – 9th CB – 15th
If you’d rather leave Bieber to GPP plays and just go with the matchups that we’ve picked on the entire year, Bauer is where you start. All the pitching is really priced soft tonight, with Bauer under $10,000. His last two starts against the Brewers produced a mediocre 16 DK and a massive 36 DK. Given the Brewers are the second-highest K rate team to RHP, I’m betting the low score was the anomaly. Bauer still sits above 35% in K rate himself to go with a 12.5% swinging strike rate.
Even when hitters are making contact, they’re not hitting the ball hard. Bauer is sporting a 26.1% hard hit rate to offset his 46.8% fly ball rate and is holding the HR/9 to 1.25. Maybe that’s a touch higher than we like, but the K potential outweighs any negatives. It’s not like Milwaukee’s 18th ranked ISO or 24th ranked OPS is that scary, either.
Kenta Maeda
Pitch Data – SL – 29th CH – 23rd FB – 8th
Maeda continues the #FlowChart pitchers on the evening. He’s a bit of an odd bird, since his most used pitches are his slider and change as opposed to his fastball. Still, he should have little resistance with this Tigers offense. They lead the league in K rate to RHP and he’s faced them twice this year. Both times he’s stuck out eight hitters, though he has given up three runs each time as well. I’m willing to overlook that given the Tigers track record this season. Maeda has a career high in K rate at 31.6% and a career-best walk rate at 4.4%. He’s also flirting with a 50% ground ball rate and the hard hit rat is 21.5%. There’s no reason to not trust him in this spot.
Honorable Mention – Giolito, Greinke, Fried, Gallen
GPP Options
Tyler Glasnow
Pitch Data – FB – 4th CB – 16th
Typically, if we get Glasnow under $9,500 he’s in play for cash and I suppose you could say that tonight. However, with the plethora of options and the relatively difficult matchup it’s best to not play him for cash. The Mets don’t whiff as a team very much at just 21.9% and they are a patient bunch with an 8.4% walk rate. They still have the best average against RHP and that could be a small issue. Glasnow does have a 1.19 WHIP and a 9.7% walk rate, so he could get nickeled and dimed here with base hits and walks.
He should be able to make up for those issues with the 38.4% K rate and the 14% swinging strike rate, but it’s best to not take that chance. What really shapes up well for Glasnow is his .249 wOBA to LHH, along with an average under .200 and a K rate over 40%. This could be a spot where the strikeouts hit double digits and it wouldn’t surprise me in the least.
Sixto Sanchez
Pitch Data – FB – 1st CH – 19th SL – 8th
I will be transparent – I’m not planning on having too much exposure to Sixto for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.23. It’s not that he can’t be an absolute stud in this spot. Just look to three starts ago when he went for 26 DK against this Braves offense, striking out six. It’s more to do with the incredibly soft pricing up top. I don’t feel the need to take the small risk Sanchez is for the price with the options at my disposal.
Looking at Sanchez himself, the strikeouts haven’t been over six in any start but one. That simply won’t cut it tonight, based on what’s in front of us. The swinging strike rate is 13.1% but the K rate is just 22% right now. This isn’t to disparage Sanchez, who has been excellent since his promotion. He’s just going to get lost on this slate and you don’t have to be this different. However, if he goes nuts and he’s not popular, that’s a big leg up.
Honorable Mention – Kyle Hendricks
Monkey Knife Fight
This one is a pretty easy choice. The premier pitching duel of the night should be Lucas Giolito against Shane Bieber. Both pitchers have 10 strikeouts or more in the range of outcomes tonight. Bet whatever you’re comfortable with, it’s a rare time when 20 is in play to a pretty big extent.
Let’s get after it tonight my friends!
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