MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.21

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.21

The Tuesday slate is smaller than normal and our pitcher pool looks like it’s going to be very small as well. I’m not sure there is a pitcher under $8,300 that we should be looking at but let’s go to work in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.21!

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.21

It really looks like Brandon Woodruff is going to be the chalk tonight and that’s not exactly a bad thing. The other high-salary options are tough sledding. Kevin Gausman has seen his performance dip, Julio Urias is in Coors Field and possibly on a pitch count, Alek Manoah has been up and down, and Marcus Stroman is expensive for his K rate. Woodruff is drawing arguably the best spot against the Cardinals and even though Woodruff is slightly worse against the right side of the plate, it isn’t anything crazy that we need to worry about. The “worst” side equates to a 2.98 xFIP, 28.3% K rate, 45.9% ground ball rate, and just a .263 wOBA. If that’s the worse he gets, sign me up. His four-seam has 107 strikeouts on the season with a .257 wOBA allowed and the Cards are 27th against that pitch this season. 

Perhaps the answer if you spend up is Jose Urquidy. The K rate is weak for a pitcher of this salary at 21.8% but the Angels are projected to play five lefties in this lineup. That would be awesome for Urquidy since he has a .236 wOBA, 22.8% K rate, 0.85 WHIP, and a 25% hard-hit rate. His changeup has been a massive weapon with a .201 wOBA and a 32.1% whiff rate and he uses that as his main secondary pitch against lefties. The Angels are ranked 20th against the change on the season and he would be my favorite pairing with Woodruff if you go high. 

The mid-range does offer two options, neither of which are slam dunks but they are interesting. Eduardo Rodriguez has been one of the unluckiest pitchers if you look at the 3.46 FIP and 3.48 xFIP because the 5.00 simply doesn’t match. His hard-hit rate is 27.4%, the ground ball rate is 42%, and the swinging-strike rate is 11.5%. Almost everything in the profile would suggest that he’s a quality pitcher. The Mets are projected to play three lefties which bump E-Rod’s K appeal since he has a 33.1% K rate. The Mets have not handled lefties very well this year, sitting in the bottom-eight in wOBA, wRC+, ISO, OPS, and slugging. They also strike out the ninth-highest rate at 23.7% so there is potential here. 

We saw last night that Nestor Cortes carried some popularity and I expect Jordan Montgomery to do the same. It could be even higher because last night the field had Ranger Suarez and tonight does not offer that same punt. Montgomery lives on his changeup and curveball and Texas is in the bottom-five against both pitches. That pairing also has combined for 109 strikeouts and neither pitch has a wOBA over .229. Everything that we talked about with Texas facing lefties goes the exact same for tonight and I believe Montgomery is the lowest we can feel good about. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.21 Stacks 

We’re going right back to Houston because they remain too cheap for facing a sub-par lefty in Packy Naughton. He does generate ground balls but his K rate is under 15% and that’s not going to work against the Astros. Alex Bregman, Yuli Gurriel, and Carlos Correa all sit over a .360 wOBA and have at least a .150 ISO. Bregman and Gurriel hammer the fastball and slider as well, which makes up 70% of Naughton’s mix against righty hitters. They have at least a .463 ISO against the fastball and a wOBA over .366 against the slider. If Jose Siri makes the lineup again as well, we can continue to utilize him since DK simply won’t move him from minimum salary. He surely won’t lead off again but for $2,000 it doesn’t matter that much. 

We’re going to need to see lineups but I want to go with some Dodgers lefties. It’s possible to have all of this that we’ve discussed because hitters like Corey Seager and Gavin Lux are massively underpriced for Coors. I would be willing to go with a player like Jose Altuve if it meant getting Seager in over Correa. Antonio Senzatela gets beat up by lefties with a .336 wOBA and only a 14.4% K rate. I will point out that the ground ball rate for Senzatela is strong at 52.9% but the Dodgers have the third-lowest ground ball rate as a team in the league. Lux has been awesome lately and it wasn’t long ago when he was considered one of the best prospects in baseball. Seager has a .355 wOBA. I’d love to fit Max Muncy, but let’s see what the lineups bring us. 

• Jays against Drew Rasmussen
• Brewers against Jake Woodford 
• Yankees against Texas 
• Cubs against Griffin Jax 
• Mariners against Paul Blackburn 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.21 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!