Adam Strangis MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.13
We have a seven-game slate tonight and some actual contests to play, but the pitching options are honestly in short supply. We’ll be discarding the tiers tonight because we’re just looking for options we want to play. With a challenging slate ahead, let’s dive right into the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.13 and figure it all out to find our paths to green screens!
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.13 – Main Targets
With the expectation that Clayton Kershaw will be on a very low pitch count, we can discard him quickly. You can’t pay the top salary for 60-70 pitches, even if it is Kershaw. In addition, the Dodgers want him for the postseason so if there’s any bump in the road he’ll be out quick.
There is likely some sticker shock with Sandy Alcantara but this guy scored 42.7 DK points without the benefit of a CG or win bonus on DK, which is wildly impressive. No, I don’t expect him to whiff 14 hitters again but since August, his ERA has been under 3.20, the wOBA is at .275, and the K rate has skyrocketed over 30% from under 24% on the season. What is kind of fascinating is through that time, there hasn’t been a noteworthy shift in pitch mix or velocity. The first strike rate has been a little over the seasonal rate but the swinging-strike rate has been no lower than 11.1% in August and it’s mostly been far higher than that.
I just wonder if he’s sequencing things differently. This is only the second time he’s pitched more than 43 innings in a season and he could just be getting better. My largest fears are the facts Washington has been second in OBP and at least league average in our other offensive categories with just a 21.3% K rate since the trade deadline. They are also projected for six lefties, and that has been the tougher matchup for Alcantara with a .299 wOBA. I’m not totally sold on him, but I’m not sure there are pitchers in a slam dunk spot tonight.
Yu Darvish saw the velocity return and he generated a swinging-strike rate of 12.1% in his last start, halting the downward trend in his play for at least one start. In theory, this start should be a strong spot for him since it’s in San Francisco and he’s been better against lefties all year long. He’s faced them twice this year (both starts were in April, which is noteworthy) but scored 23 DK and 35 DK in those starts. Darvish has held lefties to a .281 wOBA, 1.00 WHIP, and a 27.7% K rate. Righties strike out at a higher rate but have a .310 wOBA on the year. There is some pretty strong trepidation left with Darvish, so I want to circle back to see how chalky he’ll be. There is some serious risk on both sides of the coin here.
My favorite might be Nathan Eovaldi, coming off shocking Brian and the best offense in baseball for almost 29 DK points. Eovaldi held the Rays down for seven innings of eight strikeout ball and now draws the Mariners. Seattle is still striking out over 24% of the time against righties since the deadline and has stayed in the bottom 10 in the other offensive categories. Eovaldi has been worse on the road but the xFIP in that split isn’t something that gives me major concerns. He’s been better against lefties as well with a 26% K rate and a .276 wOBA, in large part because his curve and splitter both have a whiff rate over 31% and a wOBA under .230. Seattle is 17th against the curve and this spot sets up the best on paper for Eovaldi.
We’re only getting riskier as we press on and I’m going to talk about something we almost never do – attack the Dodgers lineup. Listen, the offense is wildly talented and they can hang a crooked number on anyone. Understand what you’re doing if you take this route and it’s risking negative DK points but Zac Gallen is interesting on this slate. Since August 1st, the Dodgers are –
30th in average
24th in OBP
26th in slugging
25th in OPS
17th in average
24th in wOBA
21st in wRC+, and they have whiffed 24.2% of the time. Gallen can struggle with the long ball a little bit but his K rate jumps up to 28.8% at home to go with a 3.52 xFIP. Only three of the projected Dodgers starters have an ISO over .172 against righties and this is interesting as well – the Dodgers are 17th against the slider. Gallen hasn’t thrown it a ton but when he has, it has gotten annihilated for a .577 ISO and an average distance of 358 feet. If he can survive the slider against this offense…..we could see 20 DK against an offense the field will avoid (and generally would be right to do so). I believe these are going to be the only pitchers I look at today. I flirted with A.J. Alexy but his 0.00 ERA and 4.94 xFIP don’t exactly match, and the fly-ball rate over 66% is scary as all get out against the Astros.
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.13 Stacks
I know Boston has been slumping a bit but they should not be this cheap against Logan Gilbert, who has had some issues preventing runs in the majors. He’s leaning on the fastball a ton and Boston is 12th against the pitch while Xander Bogaerts, Hunter Renfroe, Rafael Devers, Kike Hernandez, and Alex Verdugo all hammer fastballs. Add in Kyle Schwarber and both he and Bogaerts are inside the top 20 against fastballs this season. All of those players are over a .320 wOBA and a .175 ISO on the season as well. I’m looking at Bogaerts, Renfroe, and Verdugo to start this stack off as Gilbert is worse against righties and then possibly mixing in Schwarber or Devers.
I might well wind up just playing Hernandez at second base because I also want a piece of the Cardinals against Rich Hill. The Mets are coming off a majorly emotional series against the Yankees and I could see a let-down spot here. St. Louis is first in ISO against lefties and it starts with Tyler O’Neill, Paul Goldschmidt, and Nolan Arenado. They all have at least a .370 wOBA and an ISO of .236 and O’Neill leads with a .319 ISO himself. The pitch that gets him in trouble is his fastball as well with a .381 wOBA and 13 home runs given up. Nado has been awful against fastballs this season but I’m going to overlook that for the splits while Goldy and O’Neill are two of their best options against that pitch. Goldschmidt is 11th in baseball and he’s going yard tonight. As Brian says, wait for the notification and book it.
- Padres against Jose Quintana/Giants bullpen
- Rays against Alek Manoah (not a full stack in my eyes)
- Jays against Drew Rasmussen
- Marlins against Paolo Espino
Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.13 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
