Adam Strangis MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.12
It was another solid day for the Rotation as everyone written up performed pretty well, even if Lucas Giolito didn’t quite match his outcome from last time out. He was uber chalk in cash but we did nail a complete game with Luis Castillo. The slate tonight is tougher. I’m writing as the Giants and Padres were postponed for a positive Covid case. That means we almost surely won’t have that game on this slate, knocking off Dinelson Lamet and Kevin Gausman. Tonight is not full of great options but let’s find out who we like the most for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.12!
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Zac Gallen
Pitch Data – FB – 23rd CT – 9th CB – 23rd CH – 22nd
Especially if the Giants game is PPD, Gallen is going to be the lock chalk in cash. He may have been anyways as he continues his breakout campaign. The ERA does continue to be over a run better than his xFIP and FIP which means he could have a rough start coming soon. Having said that, his 27.9% K rate and 12.1% swinging strike rate are great matches tonight.
Seattle has actually come down in K rate to only 22.5%, which is a significant improvement from he start of the season. The good news is they are still below average in ISO, OPS, wOBA and wRC+ so Gallen should be able to prevent runs. He’s faced better offenses than the Mariners and come out with 20+ DK scores in those games. The fact that he controls the LHH to a .235 wOBA is in line with scoring that high tonight.
Kyle Hendricks
Pitch Data – FB – 20th CH – 19th CB – 9th
You know it’s a bit of a rough slate when we’re considering Hendricks in cash. He’s one of my least favorite pitchers for fantasy since he’s under 20% for his K rate (19.1%). That’s even more true when he’s flirting with $9,000 and this is really just a DK play for cash due to safety. The only time he’s faced the Brewers this year was his first start and it went for a CGSO and 45.5 DK.
Don’t expect that but the Brewers offense continues to be flat awful. They couldn’t even hit Jon Lester last night. What’s surprising is Hendricks has an 11.3% swinging strike rate, a career-high. With Milwaukee still whiffing at a 26.6% rate, I feel it’s best to just plug him in for cash and hope for the best ceiling.
Justus Sheffield
Pitch Data – FB – 30th SL – 5th CH – 30th
You can make an argument for Sheffield over Hendricks in cash and save $1,000. He does have a better K rate at 21.9% but has the worse matchup as Arizona only whiffs 21.6% of the time. Sheffield does have an easier path with Ketel Marte on the IL, but is not as trustworthy at this point.
He does have just a 0.48 HR/9 but the hard hit rate is a touch scary at 46%. He’s surviving it with a fly ball rate under 30% but all it takes is a couple balls to get elevated. His swinging strike rate is worse than Hendricks as well, at just 9.1%. Sheffield has shown upside with three of seven starts over 18DK. However, he’s had three under 10 DK as well so I prefer him in GPP.
Zach Plesac
Pitch Data – FB – 14th SL – 24th CH – 8th CB – 19th
This is possibly the most interesting spot for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.12. Plesac has been fantastic this season with a 1.32 ERA, but the xFIP is 3.20 and the FIP is 2.89. The strikeout and walk rates are really where it gets tricky. In 2019 through 115.2 IP, they were 18.5% and 8.4% each. This year in 34 IP, they have jumped to 27% and 1.6%. It really seems like the truth should be somewhere in the middle. The one metric that does support the K rate is the improvement on the swinging strike rate from 9.5% to 13.9%.
The Twins do have a top-eight strikeout rate to RHP at 24.7% so there is upside for Plesac. It’s important to remember that they are also sixth in OPS, fourth in ISO and sixth in wOBA. There’s definite downside as well so this is strictly a priced-based GPP pick.
Monkey Knife Fight
We’re heading to one of the marquee games on the slate for the Astros vs the Dodgers. Julio Urias takes the hill for the Dodgers and he faces some tough hitters. Both George Springer and Alex Bregman have a wOBA over .355 and ISO’s over .265, with Springer being at a .333 ISO. On the Dodgers side, they get a lefty as well and their bets hitter is A.J. Pollock with a 1.054 OPS, .333 ISO and a .425 wOBA.
Let’s get after it tonight my friends!
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