Adam Strangis MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.1
For a slate that has so many big names on it, I’m not thrilled with the options available to us. The calendar has flipped to September and that means teams can call up extra players. With expanded rosters, pitchers could have pretty short leashes at this point be it a workload concern or just not as effective as the team would like. It can be a frustrating time of the year but we press on in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.1 to lay our foundation for green!
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.1 – Main Targets
Ace Tier
So there are four big-name aces tonight but two of them can be discarded fairly quickly in my mind. Both Carlos Rodon and Chris Sale have pitch count concerns and that’s a no-fly zone for me at these price tags. Sale has not thrown more than 89 pitches in three starts (though the Sox really need a longer start badly) and Rodon was pulled at 67 pitches last time out. He’s already at a high inning count considering he pitched 42.1 innings in 2019 and 2020 combined. At five digits for each player, that’s an easy pass, especially when a certain righty is just $9,900.
Alright, listen. I’m not perfect and I get plenty wrong. One thing I wouldn’t get wrong is pricing Gerrit Cole under $10,0000 when he’s had three straight starts scoring over 25 DK, and yet…here we are. Max Scherzer is on the slate and we’ll get there, but Cole is the smash play of the night. There are exactly zero reasons for him to be priced like this. The Angels are more strikeout-heavy than they have been in recent years at 24% and are projected for six righties. Cole’s K rate is higher against lefties at 39% but he’s holding righties to a 2.44 FIP, 2.95 xFIP, and a 30.4% K rate. He can whiff 10+ in any given start and should be one of the biggest favorites on the slate.
It’s going to be interesting to the divide in popularity because realistically, Mad Max shouldn’t be $1,000 more than Cole. The latter should be priced up but if that drives everyone to just take Cole, do we get Scherzer at way less rostership than he should? It’s definitely possible even if it shouldn’t be. Scherzer has hit at least 23.9 DK in four of five starts with the Dodgers and has a 15.6% swinging-strike rate which is second among all starters. The Braves tend to be righty-heavy and that should unlock the strikeout ceiling for Scherzer as he boasts a 37.6% K rate against the right side. His slider has a 45.6% whiff rate, a .174 wOBA, and 45 strikeouts. If there’s a path for double ace, I’d love to take it.
Aaron Nola is a fine play but in honesty, I only have eyes for Cole and/or Scherzer tonight. I’m more than willing to take that stand.
Mid-Range
It may be time to try our luck with Carlos Carrasco again tonight. After a tough first inning the last start, he settled in nicely and made it past five innings for the first time. He’s definitely had some poor luck so far as only one start has shown an xFIP over 4.32 and his xFIP in total is 3.60. That does not match the ERA of 6.94 in the least. Carrasco has a strand rate of just 55.6%, a hard-hit rate of 35.6%, and a 13.1% swinging-strike rate. The wOBA against righties looks poor, but Carrasco is suffering through a .364 BABIP against that side and the K rate is 24.5%. With Miami sitting in the top 10 in K rate against righties, there is some quiet upside.
Well, there went that as the Mets game was PPD already.
The loss of that Mets game really hurts the pitching tonight and we might be looking at a player like Drew Rasmussen. Boston is going to be without Xander Bogaerts tonight for sure and Rasmussen has some relatively strong metrics to back up this play. He’s slowly ramping up his pitch count and we could see over 60 tonight, along with his K rate of 26.5% on the year. That has come down a little bit as he’s been a starter but his xFIP has not been over 3.36 in any of the three. Both sides of the plate are under a .280 wOBA and he’s mostly fastball/slider. The whiff rate is over 26.5% on each pitch and carries basically all of his strikeouts. The matchup with Boston isn’t ideal, but he can make it work at this price.
We’re in a real pickle here. There are no realistic options past Rasmussen and the rest of the mid-range has serious concerns.
James Kaprielian – The K rate of 24.5% is certainly appealing against the Tigers, but there’s plenty of risks. He’s been worse outside of Oakland with a 1.77 HR/9, a 5.07 FIP, and a 4.72 xFIP.
Max Fried – It’s the Dodgers again, although Morton came away fine. I just can’t justify that salary for the matchup.
Steven Matz – I’d have a tough time here as well since Baltimore is better against lefties, but I can’t say Matz has awful metrics. His K rate is under 22% but he does have a 45.5% ground ball rate and just a 25.9% hard-hit rate. He may well end up being more in play than I would like.
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.1 Stacks
I’m looking to go double ace because this pitching slate is not good at all. If the Yankee lineup cooperates tonight, we can actually go with a hefty amount of the New York lineup with a Yankee sack. They face Packy Naughton, a lefty for the Angels who has not shown any strikeout ability. The Yankees hammer lefties and Aaron Judge, Kyle Higashioka, and Luke Voit should be the centerpieces. Since it’s a lefty and a day game after a night game, both Voit and Higgy should be in the lineup and those three are over a .365 wOBA and at least a .150 ISO. Naughton has only thrown five innings, so his pitch mix isn’t really reliable yet. I want Yankee righties in this spot.
This might be a bit of a mishmash as far as the rest of the offensive players. We might be looking at 2/2 if we can get in four Yanks but two that really stand out are Nicky Lopez and Michael A. Taylor for the Royals. They are super cheap, Lopez continues to hit at a very high clip, and both hit lefties well. They both sit over a .305 wOBA and Logan Allen for Cleveland has struggled horribly outside of the last start. He’s throwing his fastball 42% of the time and both hitters are over a .325 wOBA against that pitch. Since both have stolen base upside, I’m willing to overlook some lack of power.
- A’s against Wily Peralta
- Cleveland against Mike Minor
- White Sox against Mitch Keller
Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.1 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
