Adam Strangis MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.31
We kept the ball rolling yesterday as all six pitchers were solid on the mound! Do we get bonus points for wanting to play Deivi Garcia? I’m asking for a friend. It’s me, I’m the friend. Garcia was excellent in his big league debut and only would have cost us $4,000. I had a plan to use Garcia and Dane Dunning. They would have combined for 47.8 DK points for just $8,500. The Yankees deprived us of that but we’re on to Monday night. We have some really interesting options at various price points tonight so let’s go to work for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.31!
Cash Options
Shane Bieber
Pitch Data – FB – 11th CB – 23rd CT – 12th SL – 18th
I’m not sure there’s much else to say about Bieber through seven starts. He has a 1.35 ERA, 1.67 FIP and 1.57 xFIP. The K rate is 42.9% and the walk rate is only 5.1%. His fly ball rate is only 26.7% and hitters swing and miss 18.6% of the time. There is not a single statistical reason to not go after Bieber as the lock in cash games tonight, especially with the Royals sporting a 24% K rate as a team.
Tyler Glasnow
Pitch Data – FB – 5th CB – 15th
The name “Yankees” might score some folks for cash, but $8,400 on DK for a pitcher that has a 39.4% K rate is underpriced. New York’s projected lineup includes Mike Tauchman, Mike Ford, Tyler Wade and Brett Gardner. Due respect to these major league players, but that’s not murderer’s row. Additionally, Glasnow is facing a projected five LHH tonight. He strikes out that side of the plate 41.4% and only gives up a .270 wOBA.
Glasnow screams positive regression through his 28 IP. His BABIP is .345, compared to .265 last season. The ERA is inflated at 5.14 but the FIP is 3.52 and the xFIP is 2.75. The walk rate is a concern at 11.5% and New York does walk plenty. Still, the strikeout upside at this salary is just too much to ignore. He just faced the Yanks two starts ago and scored 21.8 DK on just 88 pitches.
GPP Options
Lucas Giolito
Pitch Data – FB – 24th CH – 7th SL – 23rd
It’s pretty difficult to find any pitcher under Glasnow’s salary in cash tonight, so I’ll be more likely to work around a Bieber/Glasnow pair than anything else. Giolito is right in the mix himself, coming into this game on absolute fire. The last two games have produced just three hits, two walks and 26 strikeouts through 16 IP.
The negative is the matchup itself since the Twins lineup can give anyone issues. They waxed Giolito in the season opener for seven earned runs so he’s going to be eager for some revenge. I’m not overly worried coming off a no-hitter since he only threw 101 pitches. Minnesota is top half of the league in all major offensive categories, but they also whiff the seventh-most vs RHP.
Max Fried
Pitch Data – FB – 13th SL – 16th CB – 5th
It’s not often we chase a lefty vs the Red Sox but Fried is so talented I’m not that averse to it. It’s very difficult to get a ball into the air on him since he’s only given up a 25.7% fly ball rate so far. The hard hit rate is also very low at 31.7% to go with a 12.0% swinging strike rate.
Boston is decidedly average though the offensive categories we look at, which does help Fried out a little bit. The 21.2% K rate for the Sox isn’t high at all but if Fried can go six or seven strong with five whiffs and one or two earned, he’s going to pay off. The 1.35 ERA and 2.28 FIP isn’t an accident.
Trevor Williams
Pitch Data – FB – 28th SL – 27th CH – 22nd
I’ll be upfront and say I’m not a big fan of this play but Williams can actually produce some decent games. He also has the tendency that when things get bad, they get bad so he’s a GPP only special. We’ve been picking on the Brewers all year and I don’ see much that has changed.
They are third in K rate at 27.4% and bottom 10 everywhere else. They are also seventh in ground ball rate and that’s huge for Williams. He’s scaled back his sinker usage to just 7% this year after 14% last year. He’s not a good pitcher, but four of his six starts have ended with more than 12 DK points. I’d take that tonight.
Monkey Knife Fight Picks
Since this is a pitching based article, we don’t talk about offenses too much unless we’re attacking them. It’s a great time to sign up with our link to monkeyknifefight.com and make some bets yourself that are based on offense!
We don’t get to talk about Coors Field in a pitching article, so we’ll use them on MKF! We have a lefty Padre since German Marquez has a massive weakness to LHH and Cronenworth has hit .361 this year. For the Rockies, facing Garrett Richards shouldn’t be much of an issue so we’ll just pick two of their best hitters!
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
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