Adam Strangis MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.30
We have a surprisingly larger Monday slate with nine games and it is fairly loaded up top. The challenge may come in finding options that are a little cheaper, but that’s what the Starting Rotation 8.30 is here to do!
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.30 – Main Targets
The Ace Tier
It’s still kind of crazy to me every fifth day to talk about Robbie Ray as one of the best pitchers in baseball, but the man just goes out and shoves almost every single time. His four-seam/slider combo has been outstanding and they have combined for 182 strikeouts. Both of those pitches have a wOBA under .295 and the whiff rate on the slider is 46.6%. Baltimore is heavily in the negative rating against both pitches and although they are much better against lefty pitchers, Ray has walked through tough spots before. Only three pitchers have a higher swinging-strike rate than Ray’s 15.4% and his K rate is over 31% on the season. Don’t expect 14 strikeouts again but he shouldn’t be under $10,000 after two straight starts of at least 35 DK points.
Trying to figure out what to do with Zack Wheeler is difficult, to say the least. His last three starts have seen him surrender 15 earned runs but he’s also struck out 23 hitters across 20.2 IP. Now, the Nationals only feature a 20.8% K rate against righty pitching since the trade deadline but it’s hard to pick on a weakness for Wheeler. His K rate is above 28.5% against both sides of the plate and his FIP/xFIP combo is lower against the right side. It’s going to be somewhat of strength on strength matchup because Wheeler’s four-seam has 98 strikeouts but the Nationals are fifth against the fastball this season. I want to see what the field is projected to do here. If he’s chalky, maybe we have different avenues but if not…there aren’t many pitchers on this slate (or others) that can match his ceiling.
Note – I don’t mean to skip past Corbin Burnes and Luis Garcia, but I can’t get behind them tonight. Burnes hasn’t struck out more than six hitters in seven of his last 10 starts (and one cam against the Cubs). Garcia is significantly worse against lefties and the Mariners are very lefty-heavy and that’s a big concern at this salary.
The Mid-Range
He is a touch expensive in my eyes, but Josiah Gray certainly has the metrics we want to chase with a 27.8% K rate. The frightening metrics are the 6.33 FIP, the 4.60 xFIP, and a 100% strand rate. It really doesn’t help that the fly-ball rate is an astounding 58.9% and in honesty, Gray seems more like a time bomb than not. Sure, maybe he whiffs enough to pay off the price but the path is narrow and we should reserve him for GPP-only. The Philly lineup should be balanced with four righties and four lefties, which works for Gray since the xFIP is similar against each side. The wOBA is higher against righties but his BABIP is much higher against that side as well. The four-seam hasn’t been great yet with a .372 wOBA but the curveball has a 60% whiff rate while the slider is at 44.6%. Those have 27 strikeouts out of his 42. Beware that Philly only has a 19.9% K rate since the deadline, but Gray has some nasty stuff.
The Texas Rangers waxed the Astros yesterday, but German Marquez is in a great spot regardless. Since the deadline, Texas is bottom 10 in all of our offensive categories, and even though they only strike out at a 22.6% clip, Marquez sees his K rate jump up to 26.4% on the road. Not only that, but the Rangers are projected for six righties in the lineup and Marquez is close to 31% in K rate against that side of the plate. The curve and slider are his strikeout pitches with 133 combined and he’ll be using the slider more often against righties. That has a .293 wOBA and 41.4% whiff rate while the curve is the weapon against lefties with a .176 wOBA. We have to be willing to look past poor starts (especially in this pitching environment) and judge it fresh each day.
The Punt Tier
Let’s get wild. A.J. Alexy is set to make his major league debut and he came to the Rangers in the Yu Darvish trade in 2017 and he’s still just 23 years old. The righty has shown off in 65 IP at AA and AAA this season with an ERA under 1.80. His K rate has been over 28.5% and it was at 33.3% in AAA and the ground ball rate has been steady at 46%. The four-seam and the curve are his main weapons and he doesn’t get a much better spot than Colorado on the road. They are dead last in slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ with a 26.3% K rate. The Rangers need pitching options right now so if things go right, we could get five innings. At under $5,000, the risks inherent with a major league debut are worth the ticket price.
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.30
Note – The Angels have not announced their starting pitcher yet. If it’s Jose Quintana and not Shohei Ohtani, give me plenty of Yankee hitters.
One reason I’m willing to roll the dice on Alexy is that I want some expensive offenses, starting with Boston lefties. They draw Luis Patino, and he’s struggled mightily with the left side of the plate with a .368 wOBA, a 13.8% K rate, a 6.73 FIP, and a 7.53 xFIP. He’s using the fastball a lot against that side of the plate and we need to look at Rafael Devers, Kyle Schwarber, Alex Verdugo, and even cheaper ones like Jarren Duran. Schwarber has been destroying every baseball thrown at him as a member of the Red Sox with a .590 wOBA and Verdugo and Devers are great too at over .390 and ISO’s of at least .194. Durran hasn’t hit his potential yet with a .277 mark but has been a little better lately.
I’m focusing on a two-man stack out in LA with Max Muncy and Mookie Betts. Drew Smyly is using his fastball about 45% of the time and it’s giving up a .385 wOBA and 11 home runs. Smyly also is about dead even in wOBA and xFIP against either side of the plate and Muncy has a .401 wOBA and .262 ISO against lefties. It just so happens that Muncy ranks third in baseball hitting fastballs, so he is an elite play tonight in my eyes. Betts can be played at second base and his numbers aren’t too far behind Muncy’s.
- Rays against Nick Pivetta
- Blue Jays against Chris Ellis
- Diamondbacks against Chris Paddack
Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.30 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
