MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.29

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.29

There are 11 games on today’s slate, but that doesn’t mean very good things for pitching. The options are few and far between, and even the ones that are appealing are pricey. Let’s get rolling to find the paths we need to walk for green screens in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.29!

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.29 – Main Targets 

The Ace Tier 

I would have to say that the term “ace” is in the context of the slate only because nobody that is priced this high is a true ace. Dylan Cease makes the strongest case and I know that pitching against the Cubs the past couple of nights has decidedly not worked out. Just remember, every day is a new day. Miles Mikolas and J.A. Happ were trash against the Bucs but if we held that against Adam Wainwright, we don’t get almost 30 DK from Waino. Cease has some nasty secondary stuff with a slider/change/curve combo that all have a whiff rate over 40.5% and a wOBA under .265. His slider and curve make up about 45% of his mix and 108 total strikeouts. The fear is his four-seam isn’t that great with 11 home runs allowed and a .385 wOBA. The Cubbies are just average against the fastball, which helps. It also helps that Cease has a K rate over 30% and a FIP/xFIP combo under 4.00. Both sides of the plater are no higher than a .300 wOBA and while there is a risk, Cease has demonstrated ceiling as well with 28 and 37 DK points in two of his past 10. 

It’s not going to be risk-free with Tyler Mahle either but he has had much better results on the road and the parks don’t get much different than Cincy and Miami. His xFIP is close regardless of where he pitches but the HR/9 is massively different at 2.43 at home and just 0.34 on the road. On the surface, this looks like a poor spot for Mahle with a .366 wOBA against righty hitters but again, the home/road splits surface. The wOBA is .480 at home but just .265 on the road. The K rate is still over 25% and his fastball has 105 of his 168 strikeouts. The Marlins are 29th against the fastball this year which is a huge bonus and even though the price seems high, you can’t ignore him on this slate. 

Honorable Mention 

Jose Berrios – He’s in poor form right now but the Tigers can fix that for pitchers. It’s difficult to get past the fact that Berrios sports a .358 wOBA against the left side of the plate, even though Detroit is not a great offense overall. Berrios does have a K rate of almost 26% against that side as well, so if things go right, they could go very right. 

The Mid-Range 

He can be a frustrating experience, and I wish Boston had a longer rope with him but Tanner Houck is a pitcher I can’t quit. Through his 39.1 IP, the K rate is 31.3% and the 3.43 ERA is solid. His FIP of 1.95 and xFIP of 2.73 are even better and the BABIP of .382 certainly lead us to say he’s been unlucky in his small sample. Based on what he has shown, we want a righty-heavy lineup since Houck has whiffed that side of the plate at a massive 37.2% clip. The xFIP against each side is under 2.85 and he’s generating a ground ball rate over 42% as well. Cleveland has climbed up over 23% for their K rate and Houck is a strong pick. I do fear about the upside since he’s typically pitched under five innings per start. 

Ian Anderson is back from the IL and he’s pitched plenty on the farm so there shouldn’t be limitations in play here. This spot could turn into a really good one for Anderson. He’s been better against lefties this year at a .269 wOBA, 1.16 WHIP, and a hard-hit rate of 29.2%. The main off-speed pitch is the changeup and it’s gotten a whiff rate over 34% with a wOBA of .258. It just so happens that San Francisco is projected to have six lefties in the lineup, are 23rd against the changeup, and a strikeout over 25% against righty pitching. 

Honorable Mention 

Erick Fedde – By the metrics, this isn’t the play since Fedde has been way worse against lefties. The Mets should have at least five in the lineup but that offense has been awful since the deadline. They are 23rd or worse in every category and we’re going on a month of ineptitude. 

Punt Tier 

If you think Houck is too expensive, I’ll offer up Aaron Ashby for far cheaper. Now, he’s likely not going past four innings and the track record is way spottier but his ERA of 4.15 isn’t matched by his 2.48 FIP and 3.29 xFIP. The BABIP is .379 and he’s yet to give up a home run in his 8.2 IP. The K rate is 21.7% and Minnesota is over a 23% K rate on the season against lefties. The slider from Ashby has been outstanding with a 47.6% whiff rate and a .131 wOBA across 54 thrown. I wish he was a hair cheaper and the K rate was higher than 15.6% against righties, but there’s at least a way for him to get to 15 DK. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.29 Stacks

I wish it was in a different park, but the Reds face Jesus Luzardo today and I’m in. He’s getting mauled by both sides of the plate with wOBA’s over .400 and the xFIP is 5.49 and the FIP is 6.96 against righties. Luzardo’s fastball gives up a .342 ISO and a 56.9% hard-hit rate. He’s throwing it almost half the time with the Marlins and Jonathan India and Nick Castellanos feel like must-plays. India is at a .508 wOBA and .290 ISO against the pitch while Castellanos is at a .454 and .408 mark himself. They also lead the squad on the season in wOBA and they’re followed by Tyler Stephenson, Kyle Farmer, and Aristides Aquino. Now, Aquino is in a big slump and is at high risk of being pinch hit for but he’s cheap enough to take those risks. 

My next stack correlates nicely in the Washington Nationals, and we haven’t gone there too often lately. Still, Tylor Megill is getting smoked by lefty hitters with a .418 wOBA, 6.65 FIP, and a 5.40 xFIP. The fly-ball rate is terrifying at 54% and his fastball is a big culprit with a .258 ISO allowed and a 316-foot average distance. Juan Soto and Josh Bell hammer that pitch with wOBA’s over .415 and ISO’s over .330. Soto is his normal self with a .426 wOBA and a .201 ISO on the season against righty pitching while Bell and Yadiel Hernandez are both over a .300 wOBA themselves. The other bonus is none of these hitters have a higher K rate than 20%. 

• Rays against Spenser Watkins 
• Astros against Taylor Hearn 
• Diamondbacks against Ranger Suarez 
• Cardinals against Wil Crowe 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.29 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!