Adam Strangis MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.29
Last night’s slate was full of good picks led by Marlins starter Sixto Sanchez and Brewers starter Corbin Burnes, who both exceeded 30 DK at lower ownership. The only real miss was Triston McKenzie and I wish he had been allowed to come back out for the fifth. Regardless, it’s a new day. MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.29 doesn’t have near the same options but we’ll sift through to find who we like tonight!
Cash Game Options
Dylan Bundy
Pitch Data – FB – 25th SL – 24th CH – 27th CB – 21st
I don’t think we’ve said this often through his career, but Bundy might well be the safest option on this entire slate. He’s come back down to Earth a little bit his past two starts but he was due some type of regression. Bundy still boasts a K rate nearing 29% and a swinging strike rate of 12.7%. Seattle has been better the best couple weeks but still has a K rate over 23%.
The one aspect that really sticks out against Bundy is Seattle is projected for seven LHH in their lineup tonight. That would be an issue since Bundy’s K rate to LHH is only 22.2% and the wOBA is .304. I believe the ownership in cash games is high, so it’s worth riding the chalk. However, with the volatility of pitching overall tonight, he might be a fade for me in GPP.
Brett Anderson
Pitch Data – FB – 30th CH – 23rd CT – 20th
To say Anderson is not normally in cash consideration is an understatement. I’m not even a big fan of this pick in general, but we have a very limited pool tonight. Anderson lives on ground balls, generating over 62% so far this year. The swinging strike rate of 7.6% leads you right into his 17.5% K rate. That’s not great at all but it’s actually Anderson’s highest mark since 44 IP in 2013.
Pittsburgh isn’t a huge ground ball rate team or K rate (21.8%) to LHP but they’re still not a very dangerous offense in general. Despite being top 12 in average and OBP, they rank average or worse in OPS, ISO and wOBA. Given Anderson’s price tag, we’re hoping for 12-15 DK and not a blowup start here. This is almost certainly my cash combo as I can’t get behind any option more than Anderson.
GPP Options
Lance Lynn
Pitch Data – FB – 1st SL – 11th
Normally Lynn would be a feature in cash, especially on a smaller slate. Normally, he’s not facing the Dodgers. Not only are they the number one team vs the fastball, Lynn throws it over 71% of the time. It’s not a great spot, needless to say. Did I mention that the Dodgers have the lowest K rate to RHP in baseball as well?
A really good pitcher like Lynn can go out there on any given night and shut down even a great offense. He still does have a 28.1% K rate and a hard hit rate of just 35.1%. Lynn could also mute the Dodgers power with just a 0.99 HR/9 and he’s better to LHH with a .197 wOBA. It’s just always dangerous to go against the Dodgers.
Justus Sheffield
Pitch Data – FB – 26th SL – 12th CH – 17th
At first glance, Sheffield seemed like a pretty poor choice. However, there’s actually a strong statistical case so far to pitch him. I had assumed the Angels would be quite good to LHP but so far, that’s not the case. They rank no higher than 25th in average, OBP, OPS, wOBA or wRC+. Even the ISO is only 20th, which is a surprising development for a team with Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon.
Sheffield has cut his walks down to 7.3% from 10.7% in 2019, which is a positive step for a young pitcher. We also like the fly ball rate of just 25.6%, even if we could live without the 47.4% hard hit rate. Sheffield is by no means safe but has pitched better lately and has a FIP of 2.55 or under to each side of the plate. Given that LA is top 10 in K rate to LHP at 23.9%, Sheffield could be pretty sneaky here.
JT Brubaker
Pitch Data – FB – 28th SL – 27th CB – 14th
We only have a 15 IP sample size, so let’s not get crazy here. However, Brubaker has flashed a little bit of K upside in his last start. It’s 23.5% overall which is really not that shabby. Milwaukee is still in the top three in K rate to RHP at 27.6% so the matchup is worth chasing.
Brubaker has seen his pitch count climb to 76 and he should be over 80 tonight if everything is going well. His ERA is 4.80 but the FIP is 3.49 so maybe he’s been slightly unlucky. The .326 BABIP would back up that theory as well. If there’s a time to take a chance with a pitcher that’s under $6,000 in a great matchup, it’s really this slate for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 8.29.
Monkey Knife Fight Picks
Since this is a pitching based article, we haven’t talked about Coors Field yet but we all know that’s where the popular offenses are going to be tonight. It’s a great time to sign up with our link to monkeyknifefight.com and make some bets yourself!
Neither the Padres or the Rockies are throwing their best starters on the hill, so let’s take advantage of it! I’m betting on Trevor Story and Nolan Arenado against any LHP in Coors and Fernando Tatis may well be the NL MVP. I’ll take them to go over 15.5 fantasy points tonight!
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
