Adam Strangis MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.28
We have got all sorts of action today in the majors with a six-game afternoon slate and a nine-game evening slate! We’ll be covering both and the evening really has some strong pitching options on it. Let’s get to work with two slates to cover in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.28 and lay our foundation for green screens!
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.28 – Afternoon
The Frankie Montas Tier
Montas is the only pitcher that qualifies by salary and if I’m attacking the Yankee lineup, I do much prefer to do it with righty pitching. Montas has a 26.8% K rate and that’s been thanks to his splitter for the most part. It has 69 strikeouts, a .164 wOBA, and a 53% whiff rate. He does only throw it 22% of the time but the catch is it uses it mostly against lefties. It’s no surprise that righties have the higher wOBA against him at .308 and a lower K rate of just 23.2%. I want to see the Yankee lineup. If there are four lefties as it’s projected, I’m in on pitching Montas. If they go more righty-heavy, I may back off.
Mid-Range Tier
I’m willing to bet a lot of popularity is focused on Alek Manoah and the duo of Vladimir Gutierrez and Sandy Alcantara. We’ll kick it off with what could turn into a pitcher’s duel like it did last time when both scored over 30 DK. For some bizarre reason, Alcantara went from $9,100 all the way down to $7,700. The matchup is still relatively tough but he’s back in Miami which is a nice bonus. The changeup and slider both are over a 35% whiff rate and have combined for 96 strikeouts on the season while Cincy is 20th against the slider and eighth against the change. Alcantara is just too cheap in this spot and has both sides of the plate under a .300 wOBA and at home, his xFIP is just 3.32.
Gutierrez sort of continues to defy some metrics. The xFIP of 5.08 across 93 IP is not exactly what we look for but the Marlins don’t check the boxes for teams that can make him pay. They whiff over 25% and are 27th in ISO at home against righties. Miami is also no higher than 19th in wOBA, wRC+, and OPS in that split and Miami just isn’t the best hitter’s park you can find. Gutierrez has a 10.4% swinging-strike rate which is plenty respectable and the K rate of almost 19% is fine, if not spectacular for his salary. It’s more about the matchup and outside of Cincinnati, Gutierrez has a 2.92 ERA, .286 wOBA, and a scary 5.57 xFIP. He’s one of the pitchers that I’m still not totally there on the trust factor, but plenty of facets are in his favor today.
Manoah is another pitcher that is really a mixed bag and you have to understand the risk when you play him. You can just stroll through the game logs to have that illustrated for you because they are at every outcome imaginable. The splits aren’t exactly helpful because the wOBA is higher against lefties at .339 but the xFIP is way lower at 3.60 and the K rate is 30.8%. Detroit is scheduled to have five lefties in the lineup and it’s interesting to note that the BABIP against lefties is .333, which is high. His pitch mix features three pitches with whiff rates above 26.5% and the wOBA’s are under .295. Detroit is 28th against the slider and 16th against the fastball, which is the bread and butter for Manoah. I rank these three Alcantara, Gutierrez, and Manoah but they all have some serious range of outcomes today.
Punt Tier
It’s definitely a risk but this spot is about as comfortable as we can ask for when looking at Carlos Hernandez. The young righty has been better against the left side of the plate with a .275 wOBA and a 26.1% K rate. His four-seam and curve are his main pitches to that side of the plate and they have 37 of 60 strikeouts. Seattle is 26th against the fastball and 12th against the curve, but the curve rating is just 1.5 as a team. The Mariners are projected to have six lefties in the lineup today and carry the third-highest K rate against righty pitching at 25.7%.
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.28 Stacks – Early
Some may look at the Blue Jays lately and roll right on past, especially since bulk reliever Tyler Alexander just shut them down. In that start, his xFIP was over 4.50, the hard-hit rate was over 35%, and the fly-ball rate was over 41%. The cutter is his most-thrown pitch and Marcus Semien, Teoscar Hernandez, and Bo Bichette especially smash that pitch with ISO’s over .305. That trio is led in the seasonal ranks by Hernandez with a .381 ISO and a .476 wOBA while Bichette and Semien are over a .350 wOBA. You can always kick in Vlad Guerrero, even though he’s had a pretty tough month (for once).
One of the reasons I think I might fade Vlad is we can go the ultimate GPP play in an A’s stack with Matt Olson. He leads the team in ISO at .343 and wOBA at .408 this year and lefty Nestor Cortes is using his fastball 50% against lefties and 40% against righties. Olson mashes the lefty fastball for a .393 ISO and Cortes allows a 40% hard-hit rate with a 312-foot average distance. We can then turn to Starling Marte and Mark Canha, both of whom sit over a .335 wOBA and .175 ISO on the year.
- Phillies against Humberto Mejia
- Cleveland/Red Sox game stack
- Royals against Tyler Anderson
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.28 – Evening
Ace Tier
To the surprise of nobody, my first choice here is Lance Lynn going against the Cubs and their massive strikeout rate. Since the deadline, the K rate as a team is 29% and that is the highest in the league against righty pitching. Lynn himself sits at a 27.2% rate and an 11.7% swinging-strike rate on the season. While the Cubs pick up a DH in the AL park, I’m not exceptionally worried since they struggle to field eight hitters. After all, they rank in the bottom 10 in OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ since the deadline as well. Lynn should get five righties in the lineup which is in his wheelhouse since he whiffs the right side of the plate 30.8% of the time and has a .220 wOBA.
We’re also continuing to attack my Buccos because Adam Wainwright has owned Pittsburgh this year. He’s pitched against them three times and totaled 23 IP, 24 Ks, eight hits, one walk, and one earned run on a solo bomb. That is utter domination and Pittsburgh ranking 29th against the curve and 30th against the fastball certainly helps Waino. The Bucs have had a K rate over 25% since the deadline and I fully believe Waino should be worth every cent of his salary. I mean, he’s scored 27, 42, and 38 DK points in those three starts and the offense hasn’t gotten any better.
Framber Valdez is a tier down from the first two pitchers on this slate in part because he’s sporting a K rate of 22.1% and the Texas lineup doesn’t strike out much. Since the deadline, they are only at an 18.8% rate despite being in the bottom six in all of our other categories. Valdez can counteract the sixth-highest fly-ball rate from Texas since he has a 69.3% ground ball rate. His curve and changeup are over 30% in whiff rate each but all of his pitches except the curve are over a .300 wOBA. Valdez should face eight righties and that is the tougher side of the plate. The K rate drops to 20.5% and the wOBA is .290. You’d be playing him for seven strong innings as opposed to any tangible strikeout upside, leaving him out of play in my eyes as the most expensive pitcher on the board.
Honorable Mention
Logan Webb is in this pricing tier as well and he has been outstanding with a 26.4% K rate and a 2.84 xFIP. When he’s not striking hitters out, he’s generating a ground ball rate of 61.8%. Realistically, the only reason I won’t play him is that Lynn and Waino are both under $10,000 and I can roll both of those pitchers out in great matchups.
Mid-Tier
Much like Gerrit Cole, it sure looked like Marcus Stroman needed to learn how to pitch again in the middle of the year without sticky stuff. The last three starts would suggest he’s figured it out with scores of at least 21.9 DK. When things are working for him, every pitch past his sinker has a whiff rate over 31% and the highest wOBA against them is .268. The swinging-strike rate has been a least 9.6% for the past five starts which is great to see. Stro has managed to keep both sides of the plate under a .285 wOBA and he is certainly part of a pretty exciting pitching slate against a weaker Nationals lineup.
One of my favorite GPP plays on the slate is none other than Luis Patino. We’ve utilized him very rarely this year and with good reason as he’s been very unstable. However, he does have his strengths and they are against righty hitting. He’s held them to a 3.72 xFIP, a 30.4% K rate, and a .267 wOBA. Baltimore should feature seven righties in their lineup and they’re hovering around a 24% K rate on the year. They are also no higher than 20th in our offensive categories and even though the park is a significant downgrade, Patino’s slider is a weapon. Baltimore is sitting at a -8.5 FanGraphs rating and his slider has a 36.8% whiff rate and a .246 wOBA. This is one of the better spots Patino could get, past where he’s pitching. With the pricing on tonight’s slate, I don’t see dropping below Patino in salary.
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.28 Stacks – Evening
The Twins are going to put Charlie Barnes back on the mound and that’s not likely to end well. His xFIP/FIP combo is 6.43/6.00 and his K rate is just 10.4%. Barnes also sports a 43.8% fly-ball rate with a 39.8% hard-hit rate so the Brewers hitters are very interesting to me. My main trio is going to be Avisail Garcia, Willy Adames, and Luis Urias. All three of these hitters are over a .195 ISO and .335 wOBA on the year against lefties and they all hit the sinker well with a wOBA over .350. They are all very affordable on top of that and you can even top it off with Kolten Wong. He’s done well in lefty against lefty matchups with a .382 wOBA and if Barnes gets rocked, the handedness doesn’t matter as much.
Don’t worry, I didn’t forget the Rays are in Baltimore. John Means has continued to be extremely pedestrian since coming back from injury and while I don’t want to full-stack, we can use them as secondary pieces. Mike Zunino has completely wrecked lefty pitching all year with a .509 wOBA and a .506 ISO, which is absurd. This is across 100 PAs as well so it’s not the smallest sample ever. All of him, Manuel Margot, and Randy Arozarena have a wOBA over .350 against lefty fastballs and Means is throwing that 49% of the time with a .285 ISO and 44.8% hard-hit rate.
- Padres against Jose Suarez
- Angels against Ryan Weathers (the bulk pitcher)
- Dodgers against Jon Gray
- White Sox against Alec Mills
Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.28 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
