Adam Strangis MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.27
We have every single team in action on this slate but the pitching selection overall is not exactly the best. There are options at every level tonight which isn’t always the case so let’s dig into the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.27 to carve our paths to green screens!
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.27 – Main Targets
Ace Tier
I will almost surely say that Gerrit Cole will be the highest-rostered pitcher on the slate and it’s tough to mount a strong argument against it. He may have only whiffed six in the last start but it seemed like he had almost every hitter on two strikes and just couldn’t get those putaway pitches. The fly-ball rate is 41% and pitching in Oakland is a big improvement over pitching in New York for that facet. Every pitch has a whiff rate over 28% and his four-seam/slider combo has 140 total strikeouts. Oakland is 18th against the fastball but they are second against the slider, which is worth noting. The K rate as a unit is only 23% but Cole boasts a 14.5% swinging-strike rate and an xFIP under 2.95 against each side of the plate. He shouldn’t be the second-highest in salary on this slate.
You guys know that I love me some Shane McClanahan, but it is hard to get around to him at this highest salary on the board. Is he wildly talented with evil, overpowering stuff? He sure is. He’s also hit seven innings just once and he has yet to record more than eight strikeouts in any start in the majors. It doesn’t mean he’s incapable but you would like to feel better about paying all the way up that he could record over 30 DK points and that hasn’t happened. The lefty for the Rays has been excellent with a 3.20 xFIP and a 28.5% K rate with only a 7.8% walk rate. His 15.2% swinging-strike rate is 15.2% and would rank in the top-five in the league if he qualified, giving you an idea of how good the stuff is. They don’t worry me in a major way, but Baltimore is 11th in wRC+, 10th in ISO, and 12th in OPS against lefties. There’s just not enough upside even though I do think he pitches well.
I’ll round things out by talking about Aaron Nola even though I’ve not gotten him right once all season. His K rate is well worth chasing at 29.3% and the 3.46 xFIP continues to tell us he’s had bad luck on the 4.33 ERA. The swinging-strike rate is 12.8% and the curve/changeup mix both have over a 35% whiff rate. Arizona is eighth against the change but 17th against the curve and Nola uses that pitch more often. Nola is slightly worse against lefties with a .305 wOBA but the K rate is also higher at 30.1% and the xFIP is almost identical against each side.
Mid-Range
Max Fried has been on a tear in the past seven starts, recording over 20 DK points in six of those starts. His curve/slider mix makes up about 46% of his pitches and both have a whiff rate over 33% and have 82 strikeouts. The Giants are seventh against the curve but are 23rd against the slider but the main concern is the Giants can be a tough offense against lefty pitching. They are top 12 in all of our offensive categories but looking at some of the offenses Fried has walked through, maybe he can do it again. The K rate is 23.7% and the ground ball rate is 49.2% this year, both of which are more than enough for his salary.
This is going to feel gross and I wish he was a little cheaper, but I’m going to continue to attack the Pirates almost every night and tonight it’s J.A. Happ. It will be his third time facing the Bucs in the past four starts but the first two have generated over 21 DK points in each, 12 IP, 13 K’s, and just three earned runs. What’s interesting is since he got to St. Louis, he’s using what FanGraphs is saying is a splitter a lot more. Now, Baseball Savant doesn’t have a splitter listed has garnered a 1.3 rating in the last three starts and that’s noticeable because it’s at a -2.5 on the season. Given the ineptitude coming from Pittsburgh (Miles Mikolas notwithstanding), I think Happ can still be played tonight.
Punt Tier
Mitch White is on the edge of Mid-Range and Punt and even though I don’t think he has a realistic shot at 30 DK points again, he does get the Rockies away from Coors. As a refresher, Colorado is 30th in average, 29th in OBP, and 30th in OPS, ISO, wOBA, and WRC+ away from Coors and facing a righty along with a 26.5% K rate. White has a very passable 23.5% K rate and a FIP of 3.93. He’s doing a good job generating ground balls at a 47.5% rate and Colorado is second in ground ball rate outside of Coors as well. Both sides of the plate are over a 22.5% K rate and White is not expensive enough given the matchup and the recent performance.
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.27 Stacks
Brian is gone (and potentially already enjoying adult beverages) and I’m sure Jared is going here as well but I simply don’t care because the Rays are in Camden Yards against Matt Harvey. We get all nine innings guaranteed and the Rays just messed up Harvey and the Baltimore pitching staff in Tampa two series ago. Harvey has at least a .328 wOBA against each side of the plate and the xFIP against lefties is 5.25. His fastball gets crushed for a .224 ISO and a 50% hard-hit rate and he throws it around 35% of the time total. My core group is going to be Brandon Lowe, Austin Meadows, Randy Arozarena, and the salary-saving Kevin Kiermaier. Lowe is the best fastball hitter on the team, followed closely by Arozarena, and both sit over a .320 wOBA while Lowe has a .306 ISO, best on the team against righty pitching. Meadows himself is at .300 and fourth on the squad against the fastball while Kiermaier is on a tear lately with almost nine DK points per game and hitting over .320.
Going this route along with a Cole/Happ duo at pitcher (as an example) means we need a cheaper stack that is more infield-heavy. Lo and behold, the righties for the Nationals fit the build absolutely perfectly. They are super cheap and the trio of Ryan Zimmerman, Carter Kieboom, and Tres Barrea fit perfectly. Zimmerman has smashed lefties for most of his career and sits at almost a .290 ISO while Kieboom is over a .320 wOBA and Barrea (in 29 PA, to be fair) has a .455 ISO and .596 wOBA. Hill is allowing a .333 wOBA and 4.97 FIP against righties, giving us much-needed flexibility tonight.
- Red Sox (probably chalk again) against Logan Allen
- Padres against Packy Naughton
- Blue Jays against Matt Manning
- Yankees against Sean Manaea
Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.27 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
