Adam Strangis MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.26
There are only three games on the early slate and none include Jon Lester, so we’re going to focus on the nine-game main slate tonight. Just like last night, we have some big names on this slate but unlike last night, they are in generally better spots. We have plenty to talk about in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.26 so we can carve out our path to green screens!
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.26 – Main Targets
The Ace Tier
I’m only looking at two pitchers in the Ace Tier in Max Scherzer and Chris Sale. Both Yu Darvish and Zach Eflin are coming off the IL and I’m not particularly interested with no discount involved. Darvish has taken a step backward after the sticky stuff crackdown and Eflin has been out for around a month and only pitched 2.1 innings in his lone rehab start. I’ll start with Scherzer because I think he may be the chalkier of the two and we have no pitch count worries with Mad Max. He is typically going only around six innings but he’s also rocking a 34.4% K rate. The splits won’t be the most important here because the Padres are typically balanced as both sides of the plate are under a .265 wOBA and both are over a 32% K rate. Scherzer has a lower xFIP against righties which is what I’d like to see because generally, the more dangerous hitters are on the right side.
I’m not in love with the price on Sale because he only threw 71 pitches last time out. Now the Sox had a decent lead and Sale did give up five hits and a walk, but it was still a surprise. His first 10 IP look very good with a walk rate of 2.5% and a K rate of almost 33%. The ground ball rate is very encouraging at 56% and nobody is hitting him hard at just 11.9%. Another small concern is the slider only has a 28.6% whiff rate so far and Sale isn’t throwing it more than 21.3%. The change has been his second pitch and in the small sample, it has zero strikeouts and a .590 wOBA. The good news is Minnesota is 25th against that pitch and Sale hasn’t even made it back full strength yet and has recorded over 21 DK in both games.
The Mid-Range/Punt Tier
We’re going to roll the two tiers together because there’s a very interesting grouping of three in the $7,300-$7,100 range we’ll get to in a minute. First, we need to hit on Alex Wood and even though he feels like he’s kind of in no man’s land as far as salary goes, he deserves to be mentioned. Wood is sitting over a 25% K rate and the Mets actually climb up to a 24.3% K rate against lefties. They are also 26th in OPS, 28th in ISO, and 25th in both wOBA and wRC+ this season. The Mets are 10th against the slider which is a small concern but Wood’s slider only gives up a .251 wOBA and has a 37.8% whiff rate. After a tough three-start stretch, Wood has rebounded with 21 DK or more in the past three games.
The reason I doubt Wood gets much ownership is that I believe the field goes with an Ace and one of Miles Mikolas, Zac Gallen, or Yusei Kikuchi. I will say that Kikuchi comes into this game in the worst form, having gotten mauled the last time out by the Astros. The Royals have gotten much better against lefties as the year has gone forward but they also have the fourth-highest ground ball rate since July 1. That’s a big deal because Kikuchi generates a 49.9% rate himself to go with a 25.6% K rate. Every pitch aside from his cutter has a whiff rate over 30.5% and even though his numbers against righties aren’t exactly great, we know he has a ceiling at this price tag. He and the next man are the riskiest players in this range in my eyes.
Gallen has all the talent in the world but he’s had a rough year. He’s battled injuries and his xFIP of 3.93 looks better than his 4.59 ERA. His 27.4% K rate speaks for himself and he’s walking out of Coors Field after a dominant start with over 30 DK points. Philly isn’t the highest strikeout offense at just 23.1% against righty pitching, but Gallen boasts a whiff rate over 31% on all three of his pitches other than his four-seam. Philly should be righty-heavy and that’s a mixed bag for Gallen. It helps that he has a 30.6% K rate to that side but the xFIP is slightly higher at 4.09. Perhaps the best aspect is the Phils are 22nd against the fastball and Gallen has 40 of his strikeouts from his four-seam.
My personal favorite is Mikolas and he went for over 18 DK in his first start back from a lengthy IL stint. The Cards were comfortable to let him throw 84 pitches and he threw a first strike 73% of the time. The swinging-strike rate was only 7.7% but that’s not exactly what Mikolas does. He still whiffed five hitters and while some of his underlying metrics don’t look very special, this Pirates offense is not anything to fear. Since the deadline, the K rate for the Buccos is 25.5% against righty pitching and they rank 30th in slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ in that time span.
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.26 Stacks
I would suspect that the most popular stack would be the Red Sox, and I cannot argue that. They draw John Gant and I will go right back to the lefties even though they let me down last night. Gant is giving up a 17.4% walk rate, a 5.57 FIP, and a 5.62 xFIP against that side of the plate. That leaves us right back with hitters like Alex Verdugo, Kyle Schwarber, and Rafael Devers. I grant you that Devers is really up there so we can look at Kike Hernandez who leads off. Every hitter is over a .320 wOBA and a .170 ISO and Gant is just not a good pitcher.
I’m also looking at the Giants since Carlos Carrasco has not had much success coming back from injury. Lefties have a .336 wOBA and a 5.05 FIP to go with just a 21.2% K rate. He’s using the fastball almost 40% of the time against lefties and Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, and LaMonte Wade all have an ISO over .185 against that pitch. Carrasco also allows a 44% hard-hit rate against that side and that trio all sit above a .370 wOBA and a .240 ISO against righties on the season. Don’t forget about Buster Posey if he’s back because Carrasco has actually been worse against righty hitters.
- Cleveland against Jordan Lyles
- Marlins against Patrick Corbin
- Cardinals against Mitch Keller
- Mariners against Brad Keller
Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.26 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
