Adam Strangis MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.25
A big thank you to Brian for giving me a day off yesterday and we roll back into MLB action with some heavy hitters on the mound! The name value on this slate is off the charts but I’m not totally sold on exactly how loaded it is. We’ve seen the trend lately of the high-salary arms not always paying off and this strikes me as one of those slates that could play out again. Let’s get into that and a whole lot more in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.25 and set our foundation for green screens tonight!
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.25 – Main Targets
Ace Tier
There are technically five pitchers that fit in the Ace Tier by salary, but I’m casting out Yu Darvish off the hop. He’s coming back from the IL and facing the Dodgers. No, thank you.
Instead, let’s focus on the other side of this game with Walker Buehler. He’s been a dynamo this season with a K rate just under 27%, a walk rate of 6.5%, a 3.13 FIP, and a 29.9% hard-hit rate. The Padres offense isn’t exactly one we target frequently but this is the first time Buehler has been under $10,000 since July 17th in Coors Field. Eight of the last 10 starts have exceeded 26 DK points which is wildly consistent these days. Neither side of the plate has a wOBA over .259, a 1.04 WHIP, and a .90 HR/9. His two starts against SD have generated 13 IP, 13 K’s, and four ER. He did score under 13 DK in one game solely because he struck out only four. The bottom line is despite the matchup, Buehler is far too cheap.
We can possibly go double Ace again because Luis Castillo is still under $9,500. Seven of his last 10 starts have gone over 19 DK points and his seasonal K rate has climbed over 23%. We have to point out that since July 1st, Milwaukee has not been the strikeout offense it was through most of the year. They are only sitting at a 21.5% rate in that period and one start is really skewing his numbers lately. He got blistered by Cleveland for eight earned in 3.1 IP but past that, he’s continued to pitch extremely well. Milwaukee should have four lefties and that means a steady dose of four-seam fastballs and changeups. The Brewers are eighth and 16th against those pitches but both have a whiff rate over 31% this year.
I feel like we should lump Zack Wheeler and Brandon Woodruff together. Both of them have shown significantly wild outcomes lately. Wheeler has seen his K rate drop to around 25% since the start of July and Woodruff is under 24% in August. That’s not to say they can’t have strong starts, but we need to be aware that they have seen some slippage in the main metric we chase. The offenses they face are similar as well. Tampa strikes out more at 25.4% compared to 23.2% for the Reds while both teams are in the top-eight in OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. Realistically, none of the four pitchers have an easy matchup and I have them ranked Buehler, Castillo, Wheeler, Woodruff myself.
Mid-Range Tier
In honesty, I may well just live in the Mid-Range tonight because there are four potential pitchers here as well. I don’t believe that I will venture under Josiah Gray tonight. He’s only pitched 30 innings in the majors with a 4.59 xFIP, 3.90 ERA, and a 28% K rate. Now, there are some scary metrics like the 60.8% fly-ball rate and the 100% strand rate. At least the hard-hit rate is 31.6% and his swinging-strike stuff has been elite so far at 16.9%. His curve and slider make up around 43% of his mix and they have generated at least a 47.9% whiff rate. The right side of the plate has the higher wOBA but they also sport a higher K rate at 29.3% and a lower xFIP at 4.21. Miami will only have two lefties in the lineup typically and being in Miami will help the fly-ball rate as well. Add in the Marlins still striking out at a 25.2% rate and Gray has plenty of upside with Gray (and downside).
We also have to mention Lucas Giolito simply because he’s $8,300. He’s been my arch-nemesis this year and Toronto is a terrifying lineup to face. He’s at least somewhat interesting because of the salary and the fact that Toronto is about mid-pack offensively in the past two weeks. That’s a significant downgrade from their seasonal numbers and even though the K rate is just 18.6%, Giolito is super cheap and I doubt carries much interest from the field. The Jays are only 15th against the change and while they have to break out sooner or later, Giolito is a strong play in deep GPP only.
This game also features Robbie Ray who is yet another dynamic pitcher in a tough spot. On paper, the White Sox are not the offense to attack with a lefty pitcher who throws a fastball almost 60% of the time. The White Sox are ninth against the fastball and they rank inside the top 10 in all of our major offensive categories. The K rate is solid at 23.6% for the White Sox but still, this isn’t an easy path. Ray is a contender for the AL Cy Young with a 30.7% K rate, 3.37 xFIP, and a 2.79 ERA. He’s getting a swinging strike 15.1% of the time which is fourth in the majors. His slider has a whiff rate over 45.5% and 80 strikeouts on the season and the White Sox are 20th against that pitch. Ray shouldn’t be under $9,000 for any slate.
Last and certainly not least, Shohei Ohtani is likely to be one of the more popular options on the slate. His K rate is 29.6% overall and the Orioles lineup sets Ohtani up for a ceiling-style game. They will generally throw out seven righties and Ohtani has held them to a .233 wOBA, a 2.19 FIP, a 0.91 WHIP, and a 34.7% K rate. Baltimore is 10th in K rate against righty pitching at 24.4% and in the bottom 10 in every offensive category. Ohtani should be able to continue his MVP campaign in this spot and has one of the better matchups on paper on the slate.
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.25 Stacks
Two of the best spots in my view aren’t that different than last night and I’m focusing on the Red Sox and Angels. To start, Boston draws Bailey Ober and he’s using his fastball over 55% against each side and it’s giving up a .200 ISO along with a hard-hit rate of 44.7%. I’m going after the lefties in the Red Sox lineup since Ober is allowing a 5.62 FIP, .379 wOBA, and a fly-ball rate over 40%. Kyle Schwarber, Rafael Devers, and Alex Verdugo are all very affordable for their skill set and the first two have ISO’s over .315 against righty fastballs.
The Angels get Dean Kremer and the Orioles bullpen that had to come to the rescue in the second inning last night. I grant you that stacking the Angels is less fun without Ohtani, but we still have strong options. He’s just getting wrecked by everyone with a wOBA over .360 to each side and an xFIP over 5.40 as well. Jared Walsh, Max Stassi, and Brandon Marsh all have wOBA’s over .320 against righties and fastballs, making this a very easy combo to work with no matter who you’re pitching.
- Diamondbacks against Mitch Keller
- Giants against Taijuan Walker
- Twins against Nick Pivetta
Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.25 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
