MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.23

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.23

We only get six games of MLB action tonight so we shouldn’t be too surprised that the pitching options aren’t exactly enticing. Even the bigger-name pitchers have flaws for some reason or another tonight. It’s likely not the best cash slate in the world but we’ll find some gems once again in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.23!

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.23 – Main Targets 

The Ace Tier

We’re bending the rules a bit because there are only three pitchers that are priced at $8,500 or higher for DK. I feel like Zack Greinke is going to be chalky since he gets the Royals and the field generally wants to anchor to a strong top-tier pitcher. Greinke only has a 17.9% K rate and a 4.36 FIP compared to a 3.43 ERA. To his credit, he does have just a 29.6% hard-hit rate but the swinging-strike rate is 9.2%, the lowest since 2012. It’s also interesting that he has a .332 wOBA against the right side of the plate and the Royals should have five of them in the lineup. His slider has been about his best swing and miss weapon with a 31.9% whiff rate and his changeup has the best wOBA allowed at .193. I totally get the play, but if he’s chalk and we treat the slate like it’s just GPP, I don’t think I’ll head in this direction. 

Maybe I’ve watched too much wrestling this week, but Lance Lynn stands out as a super risky alternative. Listen, I don’t need to spend a lot of time laying out how dangerous the Toronto lineup is. They are top-three in every offensive category we talk about and they only whiff 20.8%. However, this is baseball and a pitcher can shut down an offense on any given day. Ask the Tigers pitching over the weekend. It’s not a chance you should take lightly and it’s the state of the slate that leads me here. Lynn is far better against righties with a .223 wOBA, 2.57 FIP, 32.2% K rate, and a 23% hard-hit rate. Those are some elite metrics and his four-seam/cutter combo both have a whiff rate over 26% and a wOBA under .255. Toronto is top-five against the fastball but they are average against the cutter. I want to see projected popularity before making a call between the two. 

The Mid-Range and Punt Tier 

This is a slate where you’re going to have to make some uncomfortable choices and chase K upside. Enter Huascar Ynoa, now one start into his return from injury. Ynoa only threw 80 pitches last start, suggesting there was a pretty firm pitch count. He left that game with a 3.57 xFIP, 46.2% ground ball rate, and a 13.8% swinging-strike rate so there were plenty of encouraging signs. New York is still striking out at a 25% clip but the offense has been scorching hot since the deadline. Ynoa is also slightly worse against righties, a strong concern. The xFIP is only 3.42 and the hard-hit rate is only 24.4% against that side of the plate though so it’s not like he’s getting mauled. The good news also is he gets after the right side with sliders and that pitch has a 43.6% whiff rate and a .228 wOBA. The Yanks are only 16th against sliders this year, so there is an upside and plenty of risk to Ynoa. 

I’m not sure if there’s a pitcher that I “dislike” playing in DFS more than Kyle Hendricks. I’m not trying to be a jerk but he’s just a very boring fantasy option with a 17.2% K rate and a 4.77 FIP to go with a 1.56 HR/9. The swinging-strike stuff frankly isn’t there with just an 8.9% rate but he is hard to barrel up at 28.2%. Both sides of the plate have a wOBA over .310 and an xFIP over 4.00, so there’s nothing to write home about there. He’s really only in consideration because it’s the Rockies on the road, but let’s see what weather we get in Wrigley. 

So, here’s something interesting that I have honestly kind of missed lately. We typically stay away from using pitchers against the Astros because we chase strikeouts and that offense does not strikeout. They are under around 22% in about any split you want. However, since the start of July, Houston is not hitting well in a certain split. They are 22nd in average, 27th in OBP, 19th in slugging, 24th in OPS, 14th in ISO, 24th in wOBA, and 21st in wRC+. That split is against lefty pitching and I’m betting Daniel Lynch picks up some steam. He just hung over 23 DK points against this offense, which is good and bad. We know he’s capable of succeeding but Houston will be the first offense to see him a second time since he got called to the majors this time around. He’s getting progressively better results even if the metrics are a mixed bag. Just this past start, he had a 4.55 xFIP but his swinging-strike rate has been above 11% in each of the past three. The ground ball rate has also been above 41% in the past three so he’s just too cheap to not give him a look. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.23 Honorable Mention 

Alex Manoah – He’s as boom or bust like the rest of the options tonight and we prefer to target the White Sox with righty pitching since they sit at a 23.4% K rate and the second-highest ground ball rate at 47.3%. Manoah has legit strikeout stuff with a K rate over 28% but he just hasn’t learned how to be consistent in the majors quite yet (which is not easy, to be sure). The Sox are projected for six righties, which sort of helps. The wOBA for righty hitters is just .225 but the xFIP is higher at 4.49. This game has a lot of outcomes, but the pitcher’s duel between Lynn and Manoah is not out of the question. 

Humberto Mejia

As of right now, DK does not have Mejia in the player pool. Let’s keep an eye on that but he’s displaying strikeout stuff in AAA. I could be talked into taking a shot pending the price tag if he gets added to the slate. 

MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.23 Stacks 

Normally I’m not huge on offenses coming out of Coors but I’ll make an exception against Wil Crowe and the Pirates. The Diamondbacks have hitters that rate well against the fastball, namely Josh Rojas and Ketel Marte. Those hitters also have a wOBA of at least .339 against righties with an ISO over .120. Crowe is giving up at least a .325 wOBA against each side of the plate and an xFIP of 5.14 against lefties. Daulton Varsho has been white-hot lately, hitting almost .500 across his last 10 and comes super cheap. Outside of Rojas and Marte, nobody is pricey and we can afford who we like. 

Instead of talking about another full-stack, I just want to direct attention to a punt shortstop in Nicky Lopez. Here’s a fun article from baseballsavant.com and across the past 10 games, he’s hitting .381 with eight stolen bases. Houston doesn’t stand out in that respect per se but Lopez has yet to be caught stealing and he only has 18 steals on the season. That means he’s been given the green light a lot more recently and is due to hit second in the lineup. With Greinke generating a 53.2% ground ball rate against lefties, there’s plenty of chance Lopez beats one out or gets a seeing-eye single. 

• A’s righties against Marco Gonzales
• Cubs against Antonio Senzatela 
• Mariners against Pete Blackburn 

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.22 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!