Adam Strangis MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.21
We do have split slates this Saturday in MB, but the five-game slate in the evening looks a little rough. It’s likely to be heavy chalk in the pitching spots like we say Thursday so we’re going to look into the nine-game slate in the afternoon. There are far more options on that slate, so let’s get moving for MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.21 and lay our foundation for green!
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.21 – Main Targets
There are technically four pitchers that qualify for the ace tier, but let’s be real. We’re deciding between Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole. I’m not messing with Kevin Gausman or Sean Manaea on this slate, especially the latter as Manaea has gotten mashed lately. Cole came back from Covid and threw just 90 pitches, but whiffed nine hitters and scored 31 DK. Cole still features a 34.7% K rate with a WHIP under 1.00 and the Twins should have a slight lean of being righty-heavy. That would help Cole out with a .230 wOBA and a 2.58 FIP. However, the four lefties could help raise the K ceiling since Cole has a 39.7% rate against that side of the plate. Minnesota is 11th in K rate against righties since the deadline. In the 22 IP since the second half kicked off, Cole is rocking a 40.4% K rate and a 2.37 xFIP. We can safely say he got his issues figured out after the sticky stuff crackdown.
I do prefer Cole, but let’s not sell Mad Max short either. He’s been a bit more up and down lately and he’s only exceeded 25 DK points once in the past 10 starts. I grant you that one of those starts was only 3.1 IP due to rain and he had put up 17.7 in that time frame, but the Mets aren’t exactly a high-K team. Even lately when they have been putrid on offense, the K rate is barely over 23% despite being 26th in wOBA and wRC+. The Mets will likely put out six lefties and that could potentially temper the K ceiling for Scherzer. His K rate is 32.4% (not like that’s terrible at all) and the xFIP is 3.99, so there is some slight danger. What I don’t really love against lefty-lade lineups for Scherzer is it takes his slider out of play. He’s only thrown four total to lefties all year and that pitch has the highest whiff rate of his mix at 44%. If the popularity between these two is wildly different, we can use that in GPP. All things being equal, I’ll take Cole.
The Mid-Range
Things get a little ugly after the Aces on this slate and we’re probably picking between Triston McKenzie or Hyun Jin Ryu. Both of these pitchers have some significant risk, but such is life on this nine-game affair. McKenzie is interesting because I think some may chase the game log after he whiffed 11 and almost threw a no-hitter. He also threw about 15-20 pitches more than he has in his last 10 starts, which is a concern this time around. Throwing that many more pitches can be problematic and his xFIP in his past eight games has cleared 4.80 four times. There has been plenty of doing bullets and one of the most important factors with McKenzie is first strikes. When he throws them at a high rate, he can incorporate his curve and slider more. These pitches have a whiff rate over 43% and wOBA’s under .255. The start against the White Sox where he got tagged saw him throw just a 47.4% first-strike rate. In turn, the fastball was over 72%. The splits really aren’t a big deal for him but it makes us nervous when a key for him is something we have no idea if he’ll manage to do it.
Ryu has been wildly difficult to get right all season long. He worked Boston and Cleveland for over 25 DK points each but then went for -10.4 and 9.3 in his last two starts. At $8,000, the K rate of just 19.5% is tough to back as well, especially considering Detroit has been much better against southpaws (not named Robbie Ray). Having said that, the hard-hit rate is 28.4% and the ground ball rate is 46.5%, not too shabby. His swinging-strike rate is down 2.5% from last year at 9.3% and it looks like his four-seam and changeup could be the culprits. Last year, the change was his most-used pitch and had a .240 wOBA with a 30.6% whiff rate. This year, it’s down to a 21.4% whiff rate and a .313 wOBA. That’s helped make him lean on the four-seam more often and it’s giving up a .350 wOBA. I’m definitely not excited, but he’s in GPP consideration. I also wouldn’t argue with one or two Detroit righties since he has a 4.12 xFIP against that side of the plate.
The Punt Range
Things have gotten progressively better for Reid Detmers through three big league starts, culminating in 24.5 DK points in the last outing. The young lefty held Houston down for six innings with only one earned run allowed and six strikeouts, much more in line with expectations. Cleveland has climbed towards the middle of the pack against lefties since July and they only strike out 22.6% of the time. Still, Detmers is throwing a solid mix of pitches, using a curve and slider mix around 52% of the time. Those two pitches have combined for 12 strikeouts out of 13 so far, have wOBA’s under .245, and whiff rates over 25%. Cleveland is 24th against the curve and 12th against the slider (but -10.7). It’s a leap of faith on talent, but he shouldn’t be quite this cheap.
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.21 Stacks
Ghost is going to be a happy man because we’re sacking Blue Jays today! They get Wily Peralta of the Tigers and he’s looking like a blow-up ready to happen against righties especially. Vlad Jr., Marcus Semien, and Teoscar Hernandez all have wOBA’s over .350 and ISO’s over .170 on the season against righties and that trio kills righty fastballs, all over a .288 ISO. Peralta’s fastball has allowed a .235 ISO, 45.3% hard-hit rate, and a 314-foot average distance. Peralta is also giving up a .342 wOBA, 1.63 WHIP, 5.70 FIP, and a 5.41 xFIP against righties. We can throw Corey Dickerson in for fun since he’s been hitting fifth in this lineup and Peralta is still at a 4.80 FIP against lefties.
Now, this approach is going to have to stomach a Cole/Detmers pairing at pitcher but I’m really not happy with the mid-range today. With some of the Jays and that pair at pitcher, we can actually fit in some Rays against Dallas Keuchel. My two favorites are Mike Zunino and Randy Arozarena. Zunino has destroyed lefties across 94 PA with a .512 ISO, 1.272 OPS, and a .517 wOBA. Those aren’t typos. To add to his dominance, his hit lefty sinkers to a .321 ISO and .403 wOBA while Keuchel throws his sinker 33.3% of the time. Arozarena has a whopping .579 ISO and .704 wOBA against the sinker (albeit in a smaller sample but still), and he’s hit lefties with a .391 wOBA and .244 ISO this year.
- Brewers against Paulo Espino
- Nationals against Eric Lauer
- Giants against Sean Manaea
- Mariners against Jake Odorizzi
- Royals against Keegan Thompson
Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.21 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
