Adam Strangis MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.18
It’s Wednesday and we have a split slate of MLB action with five games in the afternoon and then ten games at night. We’re going to just outline an approach for the afternoon and then adjust once we see what the field is doing and then attack the main slate. We have plenty of work to do in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.18 so let’s get moving and lay our foundations for green screens!
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.18 – Early Approach
The early slate for me is about jamming in as many Rockies hitters as I possibly can. Jake Arrieta is making his Padres debut in Coors Field and that is a recipe for a massive disaster. He’s rocking a 6.88 ERA with a 6.12 FIP to go along with a 2.19 HR/9 and both sides of the plate have a wOBA over .390. Give me all the Rockies with Trevor Story as the centerpiece since he mashes righty sinkers with a .450 wOBA and .298 ISO. Arrieta is throwing his sinker 62% against righty hitting and it has a .231 ISO on the season.
What I’m hoping for is some punt hitting on getaway days because the pitching is pretty lackluster. Jose Berrios and Tyler Mahle will stand out and I’m sure that’s the chalk pairing with Rockies hitters because Colorado is cheap across the board. Mahle especially is appealing with a 28.4% K rate against this putrid Cubs lineup. We can use projected ownership in the morning to find the edge but in a general sense, this slate is super clear cut for me.
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.18 – Main Slate
The Ace Tier
There are four pitchers that qualify for the Ace Tier tonight and I think my favorite pairing may well be Freddy Peralta and Jack Flaherty. This sets up as a massive ceiling spot for Peralta as far as the splits go because the Cards are righty-heavy and Peralta is at his best against that side of the plate. His K rate is a gaudy 40.9% against righties and the FIP/xFIP combo is 2.21/2.60. The easiest way to illustrate that is the usage of the slider, which is mostly against righty hitters. His slider is ranked as the 10th best on FanGraphs but it also has a 44.7% whiff rate, .222 wOBA, and has 57 strikeouts. An added bonus is the Cards are 27th against the fastball and he has 90 strikeouts with that pitch and a 30.4% whiff rate. This spot is spectacular on paper.
Opposite Peralta on the mound tonight is Flaherty, who threw 81 pitches in his first start back and racked up 26.3 DK points. His K rate is 26.3% and the Brewers are still inside the top 12 in K rate at 24.3% against righty pitching. His slider/curve mix both feature a whiff rate over 36% and wOBA’s under .275 to go along with a four-seam that has 33 strikeouts (the most for him). The swinging-strike rate is almost 12% Lefties are the better side of the plate but they still only have a .266 wOBA and a hard-hit rate under 30%. We saw a pitching duel last night and could well see another tonight.
The duo of Charlie Morton and Lance Lynn round out the Ace Tier and I’m willing to bet that Morton could be the chalkiest of the bunch. We saw Huascar Ynoa carry some significant popularity last night and while the prices aren’t the same, Morton has paid off for the field plenty of times lately. His K rate overall is 28% and his last start against Miami generated over 30 DK points. The sort of odd part is his K rate dips slightly against righty hitters to 26.1% and the WHIP crawls higher to 1.18. The Marlins are still a very poor offense but they do rank 13th against the curve. That is Morton’s main pitch, but if Flaherty is far less popular, I’m going to prefer him in GPP.
Last on the list (but certainly not in my heart) is Lynn. My spirit animal is still a very strong option on the night with a 28.1% K rate but he needs to draw the correct lineup in my eyes. The big man keeps both sides of the plate under a .290 wOBA but also sees a steep decline in his K rate against lefty hitters. It dips to 23.3% and the walk rate spikes to 10.3% with a 4.71 xFIP. The current projected A’s lineup has six righties in it, which plays into his 33.6% K rate and 3.00 xFIP against that side of the plate. Oakland is average against the fastball and cutter with a 22.9% K rate as a team, so we need the lineup to really decide here.
The Mid-Range
We’re really down to just two options and my current plan is to stick to one of the six pitchers outlined in both Tiers. Shohei Ohtani leads the charge in the Mid-Range with the Tigers sitting second in K rate at 25.9% and Ohtani featuring a 29.7% rate himself. Detroit is just 16th in walk rate which should temper the walks Ohtani can run into with his 10.3% rate. Ohtani has generated a 13.2% swinging-strike rate and a 3.24 FIP and there’s really one hitch in the plan for this spot. Detroit is projected to use five lefties, which could crimp the upside. Ohtani “only” has a 25% K rate against lefties and a 3.84 xFIP while righties feature a 34.8% K rate. I’ve found this odd all season because he uses the splitter more against lefties and that pitch has been evil with a 53.2% whiff rate and a .106 wOBA. I don’t think Detroit is good enough to kill Ohtani but I believe I’ll prefer Flaherty.
I can’t say that I’ll be totally shocked to see Morton paired with Marco Gonzales as one of (if not the chalkiest pair) on the evening. Now, I totally understand why Gonzales could be popular. He was pushing 45% in GPP for the last start and he had an absolute ceiling game of 41 DK points on the back of a complete game and nine strikeouts. That’s simply not going to happen again but the price is still appealing for a much more realistic 20+ DK points against the same Ranger lineup. Since the deadline, they are the stone worst offense against lefty pitching, sitting 30th in every category except ISO (27th). The season stats against righties don’t look good at all with a 5.53 xFIP and .376 wOBA but we just saw that Texas isn’t likely to take advantage of it.
The Punt Tier
The Dodgers will use Mitch White for the bulk of the innings tonight and he’s about the only pitcher I’d want to take a shot on in this range. It might look scary since the Pirates are sending 5-6 lefties in their lineup because White has a .371 wOBA against them. However, we’re only talking 58 batters faced and they have a .364 BABIP and a 27.6% K rate. That should unlock the K ceiling (as much as it is for White and his 23.6% rate so far). White is throwing his fastball about 53% of the time and the Buccos continue to be dead last against that pitch. I don’t think we need to dip this far, but it’s at least in consideration.
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.18 Stacks
It’s Andrew Heaney Day in Yankee Stadium and that’s all that really needs to be said. In his three starts with the Yanks so far, he’s given up 15 earned runs and eight home runs. I’m pretty sure Jose Abreu obliterated 18 corn stalks with his dong in the Field of Dreams game, but I digress. The Red Sox are a bit cold right now but Heaney continues to pound his fastball over 55% of the time even with his new team. That’s an issue since it has a .265 ISO and has given up 13 home runs, a 48% hard-hit rate, and a 301-foot average distance. J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, Hunter Renfroe, Kike Hernandez, Bobby Dalbec, and Christian Vazquez ALL have an ISO over .230 and a wOBA over .355 against lefty fastballs. My plan is to try to squeeze in Martinez and Bogaerts with a mix of Renfroe, Dalbec, and Vazquez. Hernandez is still a very solid play and all these hitters have a wOBA over .345 on the season against lefty pitching.
Now, the goal here is to jam in Rays alongside Boston. It’s not going to be easy and we need lineups to make it all work, but they face Spenser Watkins and the Orioles bullpen. Tampa has hammered this team for 18 runs so far and it’s time for the Captain.
Austin Meadows is up first for me since 11 of his home runs have come against fastballs this season and Watkins is seeing his get hit for a 55% hard-hit rate and a .347 wOBA. Meadows has a .306 ISO against righties on the year and Watkins has produced just a 17.8% K rate against lefties. I also love Randy Arozarena since he hammers righty fastballs for a 327-foot average distance and a .324 ISO. Watkins has been reverse-splits with a 6.04 xFIP against the right side of the plate so far. We can also mix and match hitters like Brandon Lowe(highest ISO against righty fastballs on the team at .398), Nelson Cruz, and Wander Franco but that will take sacrificing some of the Red Sox.
- Atlanta against Jesus Luzardo
- Phillies against MadBum
- Dodgers against JT Brubaker
- Seattle (mini stack only) against Folty
Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.18 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
