Adam Strangis MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.15
It’s another Sunday in the Majors and we have a relatively normal 10 games on the main slate. Not only is the number of games normal, but the looks of the pitching are also the “new” normal meaning there may not be a plethora of options. The high end of salary looks interesting but things go south quick, so let’s dig into the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.15 and see what we like!
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.15
The Ace Tier
We’re going to do a bit of compressed look today and three pitchers are a step above the pack (and priced like it). Lucas Giolito, Sean Manaea, and Aaron Nola are all in the five-digit range and it’s honestly tough to figure them out. For one, they all have been fairly inconsistent and it can be super frustrating to pay these salaries just to ride a roller coaster. Manaea likely has the safest matchup of the two as we have seen a pitcher like Marco Gonzales score forty-two (42) DK points against this Texas offense. Manaea has also scored a combined 0.1 DK points in his past two starts, struggling mightily against Cleveland and San Diego. It can be a tough call because the splits don’t exactly favor him as Texas should have seven righties in the lineup and Manaea has a 3.83 xFIP and .315 wOBA against the right side of the plate. The changeup and curve make up only about 41% of his pitch mix but they also are under a .250 wOBA. I’d favor the matchup more than the other small warts for Manaea and he is my favorite of the trio.
Gilolito is coming off a game that saw him score 34.2 DK points and he whiffed eight. If you’ve been reading all season, Giolito has been my nemesis this season and I can’t pretend I don’t have some bias here. I’m not planning on playing him today even though the Yankees do strike out plenty. His .327 wOBA and 2.22 HR/9 against righties are far too scary for $10,700 in my eyes. One of the few aspects Giolito has going for him is the Yankees are 29th against the changeup and that has been the strikeout pitch for Giolito with 77 and it does have a 35.7% whiff rate. They’re up to 17th against the fastball and that’s been the issue for Giolito. I just have a hard time paying top dollar for him today.
The roulette wheel continued for Nola in the last star because he was ripping through the Dodgers lineup with seven strikeouts through four innings before rain ruined it. The frustration for Nola comes from starts before that one where he faced Washington and couldn’t clear 10 DK points. He does have notable home/road splits and it goes all the way through his metrics, including ERA, xFIP, K rate, WHIP, and HR/9. Our man Jimmy always says to target the Reds offense on getaway days and Nola has a 29.4% K rate and tangible upside.
Ranks – Manaea, Nola, Giolito
The Mid-Range
I’m staying out of the punt range today as there are really no other options under $7,000. We do have three choices if you decide to not go with double ace (which is likely my path because there are offenses in great spots today), starting with the cheapest option in my eyes, Alec Mills. I know the last time we went with a Cubs pitcher, Adbert Alzolay got mauled but this spot is about as good as we could ask for Mills. You can’t expect a lot of strikeouts with just a 17.1% K rate but you can expect ground balls at a 54.2% rate. That would be second in the majors if he qualified and it jumps up to 59.2% against righties. There are only two lefties projected to play in the Marlins lineup and they are third in ground ball rate against righty pitching.
On the opposite side of the game, Elieser Hernandez is back for the Marlins and I’m not in love with the price, but I am in love with the strikeout upside. When he’s pitched in the past three seasons, he’s posted K rates of 24.1%, 32.1%, and 33.3%. I grant you that last year was under 30 IP and this year is under eight IP so the sample is extremely small. In those innings, his slider has sported at least a 39.3% whiff rate and the wOBA has been under .205. The swinging-strike rates have been at least 13.2 and he had an 18:0 K:BB ratio in his rehab starts. Pretty much everything screams K upside except we may not get more than around 80 pitches. I worry about the ceiling but the talent is absolutely there.
I think I’ve played Triston McKenzie once or twice this year and he might have the widest range of outcomes today. McKenzie has been worse against lefties with a .333 wOBA and a 5.15 xFIP. The fly ball rate over 45% is always something that can come back to bite him but his K rate is over 27%. In his past five starts, only one has had an xFIP under 4.82 and he’s just been difficult to predict. The Tigers are a better matchup than the past couple of offenses that he’s faced but they are 16th against the fastball, which is almost 65% of his pitch mix.
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.15 Stacks
Do you know how we used the Royals righties yesterday against Jon Lester? Well, let’s refresh –
Let’s start off with the duo of Salvador Perez and Whit Merrifield, who are ridiculously cheap. They could be popular but I don’t care as Perez has a .453 wOBA and .383 ISO against lefties this season, and smashes the fastball for a .654 ISO. That’s around 32% of the pitches to righties from Lester and Perez is under $5,000. Merrifield has a very high chance for a stolen base and has a .205 ISO against the fastball himself. I would also extend the stack to include Hunter Dozier, who has scuffled against lefties this year but has a .402 wOBA and .322 ISO against the fastball with a hard-hit rate of 63%.
J.A. Happ uses the fastball almost double what Lester does and this three-man Royals stack is well worth going right back to today.
Past that, we have to get some exposure to the Red Sox lineup here. They face lefty Keegan Akin and he throws the fastball almost 58% of the time. Xander Bogaerts, Kike Hernandez, Hunter Renfroe, and J.D. Martinez are four of the top five Sox hitters against the fastball and Bogaerts is 14th in the league. Since we can likely only really afford one of Xander or Martinez, I’m siding with Bogaerts. He has a higher wOBA and ISO against lefties this year and Hernandez and Renfroe fit perfectly with the KC three-man stack.
- Brewers against Dillon Peters
- White Sox against Nestor Cortes (Luis Robert is wildly cheap)
- Rays against Charlie Barnes
- A’s against Kolby Allard
- Twins lefty hitters against Luis Patino
Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.15 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
