Adam Strangis MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.14
It’s Saturday and we do have a split slate but the bulk of the action is in the evening. The afternoon slate looks simply dreadful from a pitching perspective with Chris Sale returning from Tommy John at the highest salary on the board, Luis Castillo, Max Fried, and then a whole lot of sketchiness. With that in mind, we’re going to focus on the 10 game slate in the evening in the MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.14 and lay our foundation for green screens tonight!
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.14 – Main Targets
Walker Buehler
It’s really not a stretch to say that Buehler is the most talented pitcher on the slate and it would be a surprise if he’s not popular. It should be noted that regression could hit him a little bit since the ERA is 2.13 and the xFIP is 3.67 but the K rate is 26.5%. His walk rate is also just 6.6% and teams haven’t hit him that hard at just a 30.3% rate. Buehler has sported an 11.3% swinging-strike rate, which is more than enough and the Mets lineup could help him a little bit from the pitch mix perspective. The cutter and curve are his secondary pitches after the four-seam against lefties and there should be five of them for the Mets. His curve has the highest whiff rate of any pitch at 34.4% and his K rate against the left side is still 27.8%. The ground ball rate goes higher to lefties and the hard-hit rate comes down to 25% so there’s not a ton to pick at here for Buehler.
Luis Garcia
This spot could be flat-out awesome for Garcia and I hope the last start is more than a blip on the radar and the new style for Garcia. He only threw the fastball 28.2% of the time, relying on his other four pitches the majority of the start. He whiffed eight hitters and only gave up two hits and his other four pitches outside the four-seam all have whiff rates over 42.5% and wOBA’s under .245. If he’s leaning into those pitches more and ditching the four-seam at a 46.3% rate, he could unlock a new ceiling. As it is, this is a very good spot for him via his splits since the Angels should roll out six righties and Garcia has held them to a .249 wOBA, a 0.94 WHIP, and the K rate climbs over 30%. The Angels are in the top 12 in most of our offensive categories but Garcia has upside at this price.
Joe Musgrove
I have my doubts about Musgrove in this spot but I also feel like he’ll be a popular option so we have to talk about him. His last three starts look a lot better but it was the Rockies away from Coors Field, Oakland, and Miami at home. It’s particularly hard to figure out the two starts in August because the strand rate is over 98%. That’s obviously got to come down and the K rate of 23.1% in June and July seems more realistic than the 28.2% K rate that he has on the season. He is also a little worse against lefties with a .288 wOBA and a 1.28 HR/9. What’s curious is his xFIP is better against the left side at 3.24, the K rate is higher, and the ground ball rate goes up over 51%. Arizona is projected to pack in five lefties plus the pitcher spot and sit 16th in ground ball rate, so the path is there for Musgrove. The trust is not.
Aaron Ashby
One of the reasons I’m not in love with the mid-range tonight is because I think we have a big opportunity with Ashby. First off, the DK notes in his game log say that he was used as an opener in the last game. While he did only pitch two innings, there was a 90-minute rain delay that he had to deal with. Unless I completely missed something, there’s no indication that I see that Ashby’s role is the opener. He also threw just 23 pitches, so his arm is not spent despite being on just three days’ rest. He generated a 33% whiff rate on those 23 pitches and remains under $5,000. On top of everything else, the Buccos offense is poor all around and since the start of July, they rank 27th or worse against lefties in wOBA, wRC+, OPS, and ISO. I’m ready to go right back to the well with Ashby tonight.
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.14 Honorable Mention
James Kaprielian – I’m not sure I trust him against Texas twice in a row, even with the Rangers’ offensive struggles duly noted. I’ve tended to struggle to buy into Kaprielian as a whole through his 78.1 IP and his 4.37 xFIP is over a full run higher than his 3.22 ERA. The 46.1% fly-ball rate is scary but the 25.9% K rate is solid even if he gets dinged a little bit. The home/road splits don’t decide anything for us but with pitchers in Oakland, it is worth noting that Kaprielian has a 5.34 FIP on the road compared to 2.73 at home.
Dylan Cease – This is a super boom or bust spot for the righty as he boasts a K rate over 30% but is slightly worse against righty hitters with a .301 wOBA and a 4.02 xFIP. However, the Yanks strike out at a 24.9% rate and are projected to have four lefties in their lineup tonight, which is a rarity. We know the Yanks can be dangerous, but the 19th OPS and 24th ISO wouldn’t exactly scare us if it wasn’t for the name value.
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.14 Stacks
It’s Jon Lester Day and since the Brewers are in a doubleheader, it’s easy to pivot away from their offense. Lester is giving up a .392 wOBA against the right side of the plate along with a 6.09 FIP, 5.37 xFIP, 1.80 WHIP, and a 1.97 HR/9. Let’s start off with the duo of Salvador Perez and Whit Merrifield, who are ridiculously cheap. They could be popular but I don’t care as Perez has a .453 wOBA and .383 ISO against lefties this season, and smashes the fastball for a .654 ISO. That’s around 32% of the pitches to righties from Lester and Perez is under $5,000. Merrifield has a very high chance for a stolen base and has a .205 ISO against the fastball himself. I would also extend the stack to include Hunter Dozier, who has scuffled against lefties this year but has a .402 wOBA and .322 ISO against the fastball with a hard-hit rate of 63%.
With playing Ashby and Dozier, we have a ton of salary left and I’m turning towards the Houston Astros. Jaime Barria is pitching for the Angels and his 4.21 ERA is out of place with a 5.56 xFIP. The hard-hit rate is over 38% and his K rate is 14.5% to righties while only sitting at 7.7% against lefties. The trio of Yordan Alvarez, Michael Brantley, and Kyle Tucker are the best three hitters on the Astros in wOBA against righties this year, all over a .375 wOBA and a .255 ISO except for Brantley. They also all rate well against the slider which is the main pitch for Barria. Alvarez is especially good with a .463 ISO against that pitch and Barria’s FIP is 6.18 against lefties.
- Giants against Kyle Freeland
- Rays against Kenta Maeda
- A’s against Jordan Lyles
- Padres against Tyler Gilbert
Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.14 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
