Adam Strangis MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.13
We are back in action with a full slate tonight of 14 games and we have a fairly deep roster of pitching options. I think there are at least six pitchers that will make the cut as a main target, let alone some Honorable Mention candidates. With that in mind, we have a ton to get to in MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.13 so let’s get rolling and set our foundation for green screens!
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.13 – Main Targets
Zack Wheeler
I will start by saying I don’t think Wheeler is a must (at least in GPP) and one of the large knocks against him is the Reds are first against the fastball this season. That could be the most important factor in this start for Wheeler since he throws a four-seam 41.4% of the time and he has recorded 80 strikeouts with it as well. Cincinnati is not the team we attack for strikeouts generally since they only have a 23.2% K rate and they are second in wOBA, seventh in wRC+, and second in OPS. We’re not getting a discount on Wheeler after he scored 49.5 DK points last time but I wouldn’t expect another complete game shutout with 11 strikeouts tonight. He does have a 50.3% ground ball rate, a 29.4% K rate, and a 12.6% swinging-strike rate. To Wheeler’s credit, he also has a wOBA of exactly .249 to each side of the plate. It’s more just a question of upside at the salary when we have other options but Wheeler could be this year’s National League Cy Young.
Robbie Ray
In my eyes, the savings of $1,100 for Ray is well worth it because he’s in the far superior spot on paper. Seattle is third in K rate at 26.5% against lefties this season, Ray sits at 30.2% himself, and his fastball is ranked as the seventh-best in baseball via FanGraphs. That’s a huge contrast to Wheeler’s matchup with his fastball because Ray sits on his about 60% of the time and Seattle is 28th against that pitch. Ray has whiffed 79 hitters with the four-seam and 69 with the slider and both have a whiff rate of at least 24% (the slider is nasty at 44.7%). The 14.9% swinging-strike rate is quite impressive with such a fastball-heavy approach and he’s third in the league in that metric. A bonus for Ray is the Mariners typically still play 2-4 lefties in their lineup and Ray has held that side to a 2.49 xFIP, .250 wOBA, and a 33.9% K rate. Ray has far more factors lining up for him than Wheeler, not the least of which is the salary difference.
Jack Flaherty
Let’s be clear right off the bat that Captain Jack is GPP ONLY and I fully expect the field to gravitate to Charlie Morton for the exact same price. That opens a lane for us since Flaherty threw 75 pitches in the last rehab start and should be fine for a normal workload here. We only have a 62 IP sample this season for Flaherty has a 26.3% K rate and just a 1.03 WHIP. He doesn’t get to deal with the pitcher spot since it’s in an AL park but there should be five righties in the lineup. That’s an advantage for Flaherty with a 31% K rate, a 3.41 xFIP, and a .252 wOBA. Every pitch outside of his four-seam has a whiff rate over 31.5% and the four-seam has a .273 wOBA. With the Royals sitting 25th or lower in all of our offensive categories, this is a fairly soft landing spot for the returning ace.
Shane McClanahan
The young lefty could wind up being one of my favorite plays on the slate. First off, he’s posted above 25 DK points in back-to-back starts and his salary went down $800. Thank you very much, DK pricing algorithm. Since Minnesota traded Nelson Cruz to these Rays, they have faced a lefty for 201 plate appearances. That’s 15th in baseball in that time and they have hit the skids against southpaws. They are 21st in OBP, 29th in slugging, 27th in OPS, 29th in ISO, and 25th in wOBA and wRC+. All of that is coming with a 24.9% K rate and McClanahan has thrown at least 88 pitches in five straight starts. The K rate is 28.1% and his swinging-strike rate is elite at 15.7%. His three pitches that aren’t his four-seam all have a whiff rate over 41.5% and he should be able to feast on this Minnesota lineup.
Adbert Alzolay
We always need to be careful if we’re considering playing Alzolay because he has some of the most extreme splits in baseball. When he’s facing a lefty, he gets destroyed for a .410 wOBA, 4.92 xFIP, a ghastly 7.88 FIP, and just a 20.2% K rate. In contrast, righties have a 28.5% K rate, a 3.05 xFIP, the wOBA is down at .235, the fly-ball rate drops to 29.4%, and the hard-hit rate drops to 22.5%. It’s hard to stress just how much a difference the lineup can make for him. The Miami lineup projects to have six righties and the pitcher spot, not to mention pitching in Miami can be a big upgrade over pitching in Wrigley. He’s leaned on his slider all year and it has a 36.4% whiff rate, the best of any pitch and it has racked up 66 strikeouts. The Marlins are 19th against that pitch and as long as it’s righty-heavy as we expect, Alzolay is well in play.
Jesus Luzardo
This one will make Ghost happy but we have to stress this is wildly risky and more matchup-based as opposed to what Luzardo has put on paper this year. Perhaps this isn’t totally fair because the sample is only 80 PA since the deadline, the third-fewest in that time. However, it’s hard to ignore the appalling 32.5% K rate Chicago has in that span. We’re also talking about an offense that sits in the bottom 10 in our offensive categories BUT we have to talk about Luzardo himself. He does have some regression in a positive way that should be coming for him with a 4.87 xFIP compared to a 7.36 ERA. His 40.6% fly-ball rate could be helped by pitching in Miami (although Oakland wasn’t exactly a hitter’s paradise for him) but what’s surprising is the 13.4% swinging-strike rate. It’s kind of hard to pinpoint why that hasn’t translated for him yet as many of his numbers seem in line with his career. One aspect we can hang our hat on (hopefully) is the curve has been Luzardo’s best pitch with a .225 wOBA, 24 strikeouts, and a 54.5% whiff rate. If you take away the hitters the Cubs are now missing, they are dead last against the curve. If Luzardo turns into chalk, I probably bail on him (especially in GPP) but we’ll see what the field does.
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.13 Honorable Mention
Julio Urias – It’s a boom or bust spot in my eyes as the Mets do strike out a little bit against lefties at 24.6% and Urias is at a 26.4% rate himself. The Mets are 16th in wRC+ and Urias has been a bit tricky to get right. The edge for Urias could come from his curveball, which only has given up a .186 wOBA and has 57 strikeouts. New York sits 28th against that pitch but he’s kind of in no man’s land between Wheeler and Ray.
Charlie Morton – As I mentioned in the Flaherty blurb, I would be fairly surprised if Morton isn’t chalky. I get it and in cash, it will likely be best just to plug him in. I’m not sure how much longer Washington can keep this up but since the deadline, they have only whiffed 19.1% of the time and are 16th in OPS, 13th in ISO, 15th in wOBA, and 11th in OBP. Morton is sitting just under a 28% K rate with a 47.3% ground ball rate so there is certainly reason to play him, just keep in mind the Nationals have been pesky.
Josiah Gray – The K upside is practically oozing from Gray in his early work at 32.1% but he’s a mixed bag past that. The FIP is over 6.00 but the xFIP is reasonable at 4.35. I worry about the Braves seeing him twice in a row and the fly-ball rate of 59.5% is massive, to say the least. I just don’t feel like this is a risk I need to take with the size of the slate and the other options.
Tyler Mahle – I can’t say I’m the largest fan, but I also cannot figure out how he was priced at $9,800, scores 32 DK, and hen plummets to $7,100. That is ridiculous and Mahle sports a 28.4% K rate on the season with a 12.1% swinging-strike rate. Some may look at Male on the road and see the 2.04 ERA and try and pounce, but the xFIP is 4.01 on the road compared to 3.53 at home. What could conceivably help Mahle is four projected lefties for Philly, as Mahle has a 32.1% K rate and a .244 wOBA against that side of the plate. The issues could come from a .373 wOBA against righties so this could be sort of a trap-style price.
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.13 Stacks
I’m almost concerned with the Brewers shellacking the Cubs these past two games and I hope they have some runs left in the bats. The Buccos send Mitch Keller to the mound and he has yet to show he’s a major league-level pitcher, in honesty. The Pirates bullpen is bottom 10 in xFIP and FIP on top of that but Keller is sitting on his fastball around 55% of the time. Both sides of the plate are at a .388 wOBA or above against Keller so we can fire off with abandon.
We can really only afford one of the highest-priced bats in my eyes and I’ll side with Eduardo Escobar over Christian Yelich. Escobar has been scorching hot as a Brewer, along with Willy Adames and those two are my bedrock. They both have a wOBA over .400 with Milwaukee and an ISO over .275 (granted, Escobar is 36 PA). They both rate nicely against righty fastballs as well with ISO’s over .245. Omar Narvaez is over a .370 wOBA and all three of these hitters have K rates under 23%. Luis Urias and Kolten Wong are also in play, with a slight lean towards Urias for me at a slightly cheaper salary and a higher wOBA.
I’m also going to look to utilize a two-man stack from Arizona in Ketel Marte and Carson Kelly. In limited action, these two have destroyed lefties with at least a .466 wOBA and a .269 ISO with K rates under 15%. I’m not buying Blake Snell’s monster start last time as anything other than an outlier and his fastball has given up a 47% hard-hit rate, a .237 ISO, and a 308-foot average distance. Both those players have ISO’s over .225 against that pitch and we’ll only need 2-3 more hitters to fill out the lineup.
- Red Sox against Spenser Watkins
- Rays against Michael Pineda
- Cleveland against Tyler Alexander
- Padres against Madison Bumgarner
- Tigers against Zach Plesac (deep GPP)
Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.13 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
