Adam Strangis MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.12
It’s Thursday and that means we have a split slate day once again but today, most of the action is in the afternoon as opposed to the evening. We have an eight-game slate in the afternoon and then two separate three-game slates the rest of the way. MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.12 will be focused on the bulk of the action in the afternoon on the eight-game slate and at first glance, we have our work cut out for us on this particular slate.
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.12 – Main Targets
Brandon Woodruff
It’s a day that ends in Y so we are back to targeting the Cubs lineup with an excellent pitcher. Woodruff doesn’t have the same style of strikeout upside on paper as Corbin Burnes did last night but 30.1% is not anything to sneer at. The ERA/FIP/xFIP are all under 3.00, the walk rate is just 6.2%, and the hard-hit rate is 25.5%. Even the swinging-strike rate is excellent at 12.4% and it’s hard to pick at anything Woodruff has put on paper this season. The wOBA to each side of the plate is under .255 and the K rate is almost exactly the same to each side as well. Since the deadline, the Cubs are 22nd or worse in OPS, slugging, OBP, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ while striking out 31% of the time. He deserves to be heavy chalk.
Tanner Houck
The big righty for the Sox has looked pretty at home in the majors so far this season in his 25.2 IP. He’s racked up a 2.29 xFIP, 1.69 FIP, and a 34.3% K rate to go with a 1.13 WHIP (on a .344 BABIP). The hard-hit rate is a bit higher than I would like at 37.1% but the ground ball rate helps mitigate that at 48.3%. His swinging-strike rate of 12.3% is very solid to say the list and his slider has racked up a 42.1% whiff rate and a .204 wOBA with 17 strikeouts so far. Tampa is just 19th against the slider and Houck has held the left side of the plate to a .218 wOBA. That’s important because the Rays are projected to have seven lefties in the lineup. Houck has some upside here at the salary and I will be interested since Tampa is fourth in K rate against righties at 25.5%.
Marco Gonzales
This pitcher is almost never in this article and it takes a special spot to make it happen. If he wasn’t facing the Texas Rangers, I wouldn’t even be looking at him but this is one of the only offenses that Gonzales should be able to handle on paper. Since the deadline and the departure of Joey Gallo, Texas does only whiff 21.7% of the time. However, they are dead last in wOBA, wRC+, OPS, and average in that time frame as well. Gonzales does have a whiff rate over 25% on his change and curve, which isn’t the worst mark possible. The K rate is passable for this salary range at 19.1% but we’re really just hoping for six strong innings with 3-4 strikeouts. It’s a large concern that Gonzales has a .401 wOBA against righties since he likely faces seven today, but the quality of those righties is highly questionable.
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.12 Honorable Mention
Chris Bassitt – I severely doubt that I’ll spend on Woodruff and Bassitt together, so he’s just in Honorable Mention but Bassitt has been outstanding this season. He is just hair worse to the right side at a .284 wOBA but the xFIP is better at 3.64 and the HR/9 drops to just 0.49.
Mitch White – I want to see what the Philly lineup looks like before deciding. He’s gotten beat up by lefties with a .352 wOBA (but does have a 27.7% K rate and a 3.25 xFIP against that side) but has held righties to a .248 wOBA (along with a 4.95 xFIP). The options are short tonight so let’s see what hand White gets dealt.
Wade LeBlanc – He’s kind of an even worse version of Gonzales with only a 13.2% K rate and a 5.59 xFIP. Since my goal is just finding an SP2 to pair with Woodruff, I’m not likely to go here. The Pirates are a putrid offense especially lately and are bottom-five in wOBA, wRC+, OPS, and ISO.
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.12 Stacks
The Orioles let us down last night but I’m heading right back to the well because they face Matt Manning of the Tigers and he has massively struggled so far with an 11.9% K rate, a 5.35 xFIP, a 36.1% hard-hit rate, and just a 7% swinging-strike rate. He’s also giving up a .405 wOBA with a 1.80 WHIP to righties, which should be the majority of the Orioles lineup. Now I’m still starting with Cedric Mullins because Manning throws his fastball at least 38% of the time and Mullins has a .231 ISO against that pitch with a .399 wOBA overall and only an 18.4% K rate. I’m also looking toward Trey Mancini (.325 ISO against righty fastballs), Austin Hays (.218 ISO), and Anthony Santander. I’m not particularly excited for the rest of this Orioles lineup so we can find other paths.
The other path I’m looking for is Seattle lefties against Mike Foltynewicz. He’s getting rocked by lefties with a .398 wOBA, 6.02 xFIP, and a 6.97 FIP with just a 13.9% K rate. The hard-hit rate and fly-ball rate are over 42% and Kyle Seager and Abraham Toro stand out here. Both are over a .205 ISO against righty pitching and Toro has a .458 wOBA in his 34 PA with the Mariners. Jarred Kelenic is starting to hit a little bit better at the major league level and he’s actually done some damage against the fastball with a .259 ISO against it. Foltynewicz throws that pitch to lefties about 30% and we can use the cheap hitters to utilize whatever pitching we’d like.
- Dodgers against Ranger Suarez
- Nationals big-name hitters against Trevor Williams
- Mets against Erick Fedde
- Boston against Rays bullpen day
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