Adam Strangis MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.11
Wednesday brings us a large 11 game slate in the evening with a four-game slate in the afternoon. Since the field dictates our path in the small slate, we’ll chat about that one in the Discord tomorrow. The focus for MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.11 is going to be on the 11 game slate in the evening so let’s get right to work and set our foundation to cash!
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.11 – Main Targets
Corbin Burnes
I’ve been fairly hesitant with Burnes lately but that pattern will likely stop this evening since he faces the Cubs depleted lineup. Since the deadline, they are striking out over 27% of the time against righties and Burnes still features a 35% K rate on the season and has been over 29% in every full month this year. Both sides of the plate are under a .255 wOBA and a 2.50 xFIP with a WHIP no higher than 1.06. The ground ball rate remains over 50% and the hard-hit rate is only 24.1%. It’s one thing to be cautious against good offenses but Chicago does not qualify. With a swinging-strike rate of 15.9% and sitting 17th against the cutter without their traded hitters, Burnes has factors lining up for a ceiling game tonight.
Kevin Gausman
When you have the best splitter in baseball by a significant margin, you’re typically going to make it into the Rotation. Gausman has had bouts of inconsistency lately but he did just get this D-Backs offense for almost 30 DK points in his last start, stringing out eight. Even in July when the ERA jumped to 5.11, the K rate stayed strong at 30.3% and the xFIP was only 3.90. Arizona will likely load up with lefty hitters but Gausman still has a 29.1% K rate against that side and even though the wOBA is worse at .280, the xFIP is only 3.54 and that’s not that scary. It’s also encouraging that he throws the splitter evenly to both sides of the plate, keeping intact his best weapon regardless of the opposing lineup. The splitter has a .139 wOBA and has only allowed 21 hits on the year compared to 103 strikeouts. Every pitch aside from his four-seam has a whiff rate over 40% and Arizona is 24th against the fastball, a huge checkmark for Gausman in this spot.
Frankie Montas
Speaking of splitters, Montas is no stranger to throwing a lethal one, and he sits at a 53.2% whiff rate, .172 wOBA, and has 60 strikeouts. Something has clicked since the start of July with a K rate above 31.5% and an xFIP of just 3.12. Even in this last start, the xFIP was just 1.39 and we have seen upside from Montas a whole lot lately. The largest caveat to this spot and the likeliest path to failure is Cleveland is projected to be righty-heavy with seven in the lineup. Montas isn’t using the splitter against righties with just 112 of his total 444 splitters being thrown to righties. Knowing that it’s not a surprise that he’s worse against righties with a 4.06 xFIP, .320 wOBA, and just a 21.7% K rate. I don’t want to totally skip him, but the splitter usage is a large red flag for his upside chances tonight.
Merrill Kelly
I find myself liking Kelly more than I maybe should, but the projected lineup for the Giants lines up exceptionally well for his splits. They could play 5-6 lefties in addition to the pitcher spot and while the K rate is just 18.1%, the Giants whiff over 25.5% of the time against righty pitching. Kelly has held lefties to just a .254 wOBA to go along with a 1.06 WHIP and just a 33.5% fly-ball rate. The shift into San Fran should help that facet as well and his pitch mix gives us an insight on why Kelly has been better against the left side. His sinker is giving up a .300 wOBA but he mostly ditches that pitch against lefties and shifts more towards the curve/change/cutter mix. Those three pitches all feature a wOBA under .295, have combined for 67 strikeouts, and the change/curve has a whiff rate over 26.5%. He’s not a comfortable pick but he did score 23 DK against the Giants in his last start. Unless we get some news or a very poor lineup to attack, this slate seems like one we have to spend up on pitching to make things work for us.
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.11 Honorable Mention
Adam Wainwright – I strongly dislike the salary but I can very easily see the Pirates scuffling mightily against Waino in this spot. They are 23rd against the curve and still dead last against the fastball, a big plus for Wainwright. It also helps that since the trade deadline, Pittsburgh has whiffed over 25% of the time which is a very large jump over the seasonal rate. I will not argue if you choose this route.
Alek Manoah – One of the largest keys to his success so far has been his slider and the Angels rank as the best team against that pitch this season. The main reason I still have him in play is that he’s been lethal against righty hitters so far with a .202 wOBA and a 0.64 WHIP. The xFIP of 4.43 tells us there has been some luck involved for sure which is why he’s not one of my favorite targets.
MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.11 Stacks
The last thing pitcher Wil Crowe wants to see is a righty-heavy lineup since he’s given up a .413 wOBA, 2.93 HR/9, 6.77 FIP, and a 1.75 WHIP against that side of the plate. Granted, he’s not exactly shutting down lefties either with a .324 wOBA and a 5.23 xFIP.He uses his fastball around 40% of the time and it gets killed for a .498 wOBA, .396 ISO, and a 330-foot average distance. If Tyler O’Neill is back in the lineup, he is my favorite hitter in the stack with a .236 ISO against righties and a .407 wOBA against the fastball. Even if not, we can spend on pitching and still afford Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, and Harrison Bader. They all have an ISO over .210 against righty fastballs and are all over a .330 wOBA against righties in general. Bader is especially valuable at $2,400 and cheaper hitters like Paul DeJong and Dylan Carlson are in play as well, just not primary targets.
I also want to get some exposure to the Milwaukee offense, but they are expensive. For me, I’m looking to go right up the middle of the diamond with Kolten Wong and Willy Adames. The latter is one cheap way to get into this offense and sits over a .315 wOBA against righties while Adames has a .446 wOBA against the sinker, which is the main pitch for Jake Arrieta. He’s getting mashed by either side of the plate with over a .380 wOBA allowed.
- Blue Jays against Dylan Bundy
- Orioles against Tarik Skubal
- Phillies against David Price
Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.11 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
